Ontario Election 2018 Final Projection vs Results

On June 7th, the Ontario PCs won a strong majority government. I was out of town then, so my polls projection only appears now. I have included a brief analysis of what the polls said versus what actually happened at the ballots.

This projection slows a very slim PC majority.

This is a graph of all the polls. We can clearly see how the NDP rose then peaked and then fell, mirroring the fall and then the small bump in polls for the Liberals. The PCs late campaign surge is also apparent.

Here we see the predictions by the polls versus the election results. The polls underestimated the PC's vote and overestimated the NDP. The small lead the PCs appeared to have over the NDP turned out to be a very comfortable one (seven points). My model caught the correct seat count for the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats between the high/low and min/max ranges. Not the best result for the model, but decent compared to the pollsters' inaccuracies.

Just a final thought, this election result is very similar to the federal Conservatives' win back in 2011. The final result back then was 40-31-19 for CPC-LPC-NDP and the results for Ontairo 2018 were 41-34-20 for OPC-OLP-ONDP. The percentages would be even closer if there was no Bloc Quebecois on the federal level who netted 6% which would be distributed to the other parties, especially the Liberals and NDP. Pretty cool stuff.

For the election junkies out there, the next one will be Quebec 2018 this fall, so stay tuned!

Ontario Election 2018: June 1st Projection

It is a razor close race now between the PCs and the NDPs with Doug Ford's party maintaining a small edge, enough to win them a majority government.

The New Democrats have definitely caught up to the Progressive Conservatives, thanks to the Liberals' fall, but it seems that this surge may not be enough to stop the PCs from forming government on June 7. But the only thing that we know for certain right now is that Wynne's Liberals will no longer be the party in power.

Ontario Election 2018: Projection with Two and a Half Weeks to Go

The Ontario provincial election will be held on June 7, 2018. Below is my current projection.

It can be seen that the Ontario PC Party is set on winning the election and forming a majority government. The NDP would form the Official Opposition, though they have a small chance of coming up on top. The incumbent Liberals would most likely be displaced to the third place party spot, with the Greens, other parties, and independents not set on winning any seats.

Here is a graph of all polls taken from after the 2015 election up to now. Over this four year period, we can clearly see some trends, including the fall of the Liberals and the rise of the PCs and NDP.

Although Doug Ford`s Progressive Conservatives are currently on the path to easily winning the election, we must remember that even a week in politics is a long time, so changes can still happen. Stay tuned for the end of the month update and projection!