Final U.S. Election 2016 Prediction: President Trump

I predict that Donald J. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election and will become the 45th President of the United States of America.

Trump, Clinton Close to Clinching Nomination

After several key victories, Donald Trump is well on track to becoming the GOP nominee. Indiana will the last stand of the anti-Trump forces. If the Cruz-Kasich alliance fails, Trump will get the victory.

Meanwhile Clinton maintains a strong lead over Sanders, and is set to grab the Democratic nomination.

State of the Race

Trump and Clinton on Track to be Nominated

Following Super Tuesdays 1, 2, and 3, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are well on their way to be nominated. Although there are still three Republicans left in the race, Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the race has essentially been a two-man race between Trump and Cruz. Marco Rubio only won three contests and Ben Carson failed to win any. They both dropped out. Out of 34 contests so far, Kasich has only won one: his home state of Ohio. This was no surprise. Kasich is a popular incumbent governor. Trump has 21 wins under his belt and Cruz has 9. The front-runner has already racked up 60% of delegates necessary to win the nomination. Cruz is at 37% and Kasich only as 13% of delegates making a majority mathematically impossible. Only a contested convention would save him, but the chances of that happening are slim as paper. If the Republicans want someone other than Trump as their nominee, then Kasich has to drop out and the anti-Trump voters will have to support Cruz. This may happen soon. Kasich has little reason to stay in the race. He has very little money at hand and even lost to Marco Rubio on Arizona even though the Florida senator had already dropped out. 

Sanders failed to defeat Clinton in Ohio and is trailing the front-runner with 12 wins compared to Clinton's 20. Although Sanders surprised pundits with wins in states like Michigan, Clinton maintains a much larger delegate count. Factoring in the super-delegates, Clinton has 71% of delegates need to win nomination versus 40% for Sanders. The Vermont senator would have to win big in the remaining contests (we're about halfway through already) and convince party leaders to support him. This is unlikely however. 

Now there is a hiatus in voting until April when Wisconsin votes. If Kasich drops out and Cruz pulls off a convincing win, there is hope that Trump can be stopped. However, Cruz will have to gather the support of moderates as several states like New York and northeastern states are less conservatives than the Texas senator's base. Sanders will hope for a miracle. At this point it seems as though only a legal litigation can prevent Clinton from clinching the Democratic Party nomination.

The Republican and Democratic Races Could End Tomorrow

Tuesday, March 1, 2016 is Super Tuesday. One fifth of the American states will vote and when finished, 25% of delegates will be allocated. 

Among Republicans, Donald Trump is in a strong position to win most, if not all of the states. Ted Cruz may win his home state of Texas and a few southern states, and Marco Rubio is in second or third place in several states, but leading in none. John Kasich and Ben Carson have no chance of winning any of the Super Tuesday states. 

Hillary Clinton will likely dominate the Democratic primaries and caucuses, while Bernie Sanders may pick up a couple of states and will easily dominate his home state, Vermont. But once Super Tuesday is over, the gap between Clinton and Sanders will be huge, making Clinton the presumptive nominee. Let's not mention the 10 to 1 difference in super-delegates between Clinton and Sanders. 

Unless Cruz does well in the South, he is a goner. And even if Rubio comes as the runner-up in several states, he will still not have carried a single state and will remain as a distant challenger to Trump. The Donald is polling between 35-45%, but once more candidates drop out, such as Ben Carson, and undecideds make up their mind, a large amount of Republicans will jump the bandwagon and support him giving him a support level of over 50%. Already some of the establishment are showing signs of supporting Trump. Chris Christie recently endorsed Trump and may be Trump's running mate. Others will do the same. 

So unless Cruz or Rubio pull some upset victories and surprise everyone, it's going to be Trump, Trump, Trump!

Presidential Primaries: December Polling Averages

Trump Continues to Increase Lead Among Republicans; Clinton Maintains Lead over Sanders

 Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 36.7%
 2. Cruz: 16.7%
3. Rubio: 11.2%
4. Carson: 9.6%
5. Bush: 5.3%
6. Christie: 3.6%
7. Paul: 3.2%
8. Huckabee: 2.1%
9. Fiorina: 2.1%
10. Kasich: 1.9%
11. Santorum: 1.1%
12. Gilmore: 0.0%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.5%
Spread: Trump +20.0

Subtractions: Lindsey Graham (dropped out of race), George Pataki (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump: 57%; Carson: 18%; Cruz: 13%; Rubio: 12%; Others: 0%

Front-runner: Trump

Challengers: Cruz, Rubio, Carson

Contenders: Bush, Christie, Paul

Long-shots: Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Santorum, Gilmore

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 55.2%
2. Sanders: 31.9%
3. O'Malley: 3.6%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.3%

Spread: Clinton +23.3

DNC: Sanders: 56%; Clinton: 44%; Others: 0%

Front-runner: Clinton

Challenger: Sanders

Contender: O'Malley

Long-shots: none

General Election:

Using the RNC/DNC numbers:

Trump-Carson (R): 50.4% (271 electoral votes)

Sanders-Clinton (D): 49.6% (267 electoral votes)

President: Donald J. Trump, Sr. (R)

Vice-President: Benjamin "Ben" Carson, Sr. (R)

My Predictions:

Although Donald Trump is the current poll leader, his campaign lacks the organization, and turnout for Trump supporters may be low. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio seem like his biggest challengers. Ben Carson's campaign is falling and Jeb Bush is failing. All other candidates have very little chance of success. I predict a Cruz win in Iowa and South Carolina, and the establishment coalescing around Rubio for him to win New Hampshire. We would end up with a Rubio versus Cruz win where Rubio would ultimately prevail.

Here are some broader breakdowns for the Republicans:

Iowa:

Plausible winners: Cruz, Trump

Plausible runners-up: Rubio, Carson

No chance: Bush, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

New Hampshire:

Plausible winners: Trump, Rubio

Plausible runners-up: Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Christie

No chance: Paul, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

South Carolina:

Plausible winners: Trump, Cruz

Plausible runners-up: Rubio, Bush 

No chance: Carson, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

National:

Plausible winners: Trump, Cruz, Rubio

Plausible runners-up: Bush, Carson, Christie, Kasich

No chance: Paul, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

Note that the margin of error may result in a jump of one level (eg. from no chance to runner-up or runner-up to winner, and all combinations of the such)

Breakdowns for the Democrats:

Iowa:

Winner: Clinton

Runner-up: Sanders

No chance: O'Malley

New Hampshire:

Winner: Sanders

Runner-up: Clinton

No chance: O'Malley

South Carolina:

Winner: Clinton

Runner-up: Sanders

No chance: O'Malley

National:

Winner: Clinton

Runner-up: Sanders

No chance: O'Malley

General election:


I predict a general election Clinton vs Rubio showdown where Marco Rubio would win and become the 45th President of the United States of America.

 Some final thoughts:

The 2016 U.S. presidential caucuses and election will be very close and very messy. Anything can still happen. The Republican nomination is wide open: with such a big crowd, several candidates have a shot at becoming the GOP nominee. While the Democratic race consists of only three individuals, it is no less interesting. Hillary Clinton may be leading now, but 2008 can always repeat itself and cause the "presumptive nominee" to lose to underdog Sanders. However, Clinton still maintains a comfortable edge over him. The general election will be a toss-up. The predictions of this blog and other websites and politicos are just as accurate as flipping a coin. So hold on tight, enjoy the ride, and vote!

 

Presidential Primaries: November Polling Averages

Trump Keeps Rising as Carson Stumbles; Clinton Seemingly Unstoppable

 Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 32.5%
 2. Carson: 15.0%
3. Rubio: 13.2%
4. Cruz: 12.1%
5. Bush: 5.9%
6. Fiorina: 3.1%
7. Kasich: 2.9%
8. Christie: 2.8%
9. Paul: 2.8%
10. Huckabee: 2.4%
11. Gilmore: 1.0%
12. Graham: 0.6%
13. Pataki: 0.6%
14. Santorum: 0.4%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 4.7%
Spread: Trump +17.5

Subtractions: Bobby Jindal (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump: 58%; Carson: 21%; Rubio: 12%; Cruz: 9%; Others: 0%

 Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 57.3%
2. Sanders: 31.3%
3. O'Malley: 4.4%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 7.0%

Spread: Clinton +26.0

Subractions: Lawrence Lessig (dropped out of race)

DNC: Sanders: 57%; Clinton: 43%; Others: 0%

Presidential Primaries: October Polling Averages

Carson within Shooting Distance of Trump, Bush Falters while Cruz Rises; Clinton Increases Lead after Biden Declines to Run

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 27.4%
 2. Carson: 22.8%
3. Rubio: 9%
4. Cruz: 7.7%
5. Bush: 7.3%
6. Fiorina: 4%
7. Paul: 3.1%
8. Kasich: 2.9%
9. Huckabee: 2.7%
10. Christie: 2.3%
11. Graham: 0.7%
12. Jindal: 0.6%
13. Santorum: 0.5%
14. Pataki: 0.2%
15. Gilmore: 0%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 8.8%
Spread: Trump +4.6

RNC: Trump: 61%; Carson: 23%; Rubio: 10%; Cruz: 6%; Bush: 0%; Others: 0%

 Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 54.2%
2. Sanders: 27.8%
3. O'Malley: 2.2%
4. Lessig: 1%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 14.8%

Spread: Clinton +26.4

Subractions: Jim Webb (dropped out of race), Lincoln Chafee (dropped out of race), Joe Biden (declined to run) 

DNC: Sanders: 58%; Clinton: 42%; Others: 0%

Presidential Primaries: September Polling Averages

Trump's Lead Shrinks As Carson, Fiorina, Rubio Rise; Gap Between Clinton and Sanders Narrows

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 26.7%
2. Carson: 15.9%
3. Rubio: 9.2%
4. Fiorina: 9.1%
5. Bush: 9%
6. Cruz: 6.1%
7. Christie: 3.7%
8. Paul: 3.5%
9. Kasich: 3.3%
10. Huckabee: 2.7%
11. Santorum: 1%
12. Jindal: 0.9%
13. Gilmore: 0.6%
14. Pataki: 0.2%
15. Graham: 0.2%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 7.9% 
Spread: Trump +10.8

Subtractions: Rick Perry (dropped out of race), Scott Walker (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump 54%; Carson: 14%; Fiorina: 13%; Rubio: 11%; Cruz: 5%; Bush: 3%; Others: 0%

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 43.3%
2. Sanders: 26.3%
3. Biden: 19%
4. O'Malley: 0.9%
5. Webb: 0.6%
6. Chafee: 0.3%
7. Lessig: 0%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.6%

Spread: Clinton +17

Addition: Lawrence Lessig (Harvard law professor, MA)

DNC: Sanders: 49%; Clinton: 34%; Biden: 17%; Others: 0%

 

Presidential Primaries: August Polling Averages

Trump Continues to Dominate GOP Field; Carson and Sanders Make Gains

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 30.5%
2. Carson: 10.8%
3. Bush: 8.8%
4. Rubio: 6.1%
5. Huckabee: 5.7%
6. Cruz: 5.6%
7. Walker: 5.5%
8. Fiorina: 5%
9. Kasich: 3.5%
10. Christie: 2.7%
11. Paul: 2.4%
12. Perry: 2.4%
13. Santorum: 1.3%
14. Jindal: 0.7%
15. Gilmore: 0.6%
16. Graham: 0.3%
17. Pataki: 0.1%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 8%

Spread: Trump +19.7

Addition: Jim Gilmore (former governor, VA)

RNC:

Trump: 88%; Carson: 11%; Bush: 1%

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 48.7%
2. Sanders: 23.2%
3. Biden: 14%
4. Webb: 1.3%
5. O'Malley: 1.3%
6. Chafee: 0.4%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 11.1%

Spread: Clinton +25.5

DNC: 

Sanders: 51%; Clinton: 38%; Biden: 11%

Presidential Primaries: July Polling Averages

Trump Steals GOP Field; Sanders Continues to Rise

19 polls were released this month for Republicans and Democrats were polled 16 times, making this a very busy month for pollsters. The biggest news this month is "The Donald". Taking advantage of the angry voters among the Republicans, he has captured media headlines and leads Jeb Bush by 12 points with almost 1 in 4 Republican voters supporting him. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders, another polarizing figure, is now polling at 20% and has reduced Hillary Clinton's lead to (a still impressive) 36 percentage points. The only candidate who has not yet announced his candidacy is Vice-President Joe Biden. Note that former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore has declared that he will run on July 30, but no poll this month has put him higher than 0%, so he has not been included for July's projection (but probably will be for August).

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Donald Trump: 24.4% (+5, +15.8 pp)

2. Jeb Bush: 12.8% (-1, -1.8 pp)

3. Scott Walker: 12.5% (-1, +2.3 pp)

4. Ben Carson: 6.5% (-2.9 pp)

5. Ted Cruz: 6.3% (+3, +1.5 pp)

6. Mike Huckabee: 5.9% (+1, -1.1 pp)

7. Marco Rubio: 5.1% (-4, -4.3 pp)

8. Rand Paul: 4.9% (-3, -4.0 pp)

9. John Kasich: 3.9% (+4, +1.9 pp)

10. Chris Christie: 3.1% (+1, -0.1 pp)

11. Rick Perry: 2.8% (-1, -0.5 pp)

12. Rich Santorum: 1.6% (-0.6 pp)

13. Carly Fiorina: 1.5% (-4, -2.0 pp)

14. Bobby Jindal: 1.2% (+1, -0.2 pp)

15. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-1, -0.6 pp)

16. George Pataki: 0.6% (+0.4 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.0% (-3.8 pp)

Spread: Trump +11.6

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Trump: The media mogul and businessman's jump has been phenomenal. Donald Trump is now the clear leader of the GOP field. However, considering all his controversies, we cannot be sure how long he can keep these numbers.

2. Bush: Jeb Bush has been trumped: literally. He is now in second place, more than ten percentage points behind the new frontrunner, Donald Trump.

3. Walker: Wisconsin's governor's polling average went up following his announcement this month, but this month hasn't been enough to exceed Bush.

4. Carson: Dr. Carson's support has gone down by 3 points, but he has managed to remain in fourth place.

5. Cruz: Cruz is one of the only candidates who has not publicly attacked or criticized Trump. Perhaps his rise upwards can be attributed to some of Trump's supporters.

6. Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor has gone down by 1 point, but has still risen one spot to sixth.

7. Rubio: The junior senator from Florida has experienced the biggest drop this month. He has fell by over 4 points and has only his core base left. He has fallen from third place to the seventh spot.

8. Paul: Paul has also experienced a large drop, losing 4 points. Until July, the Kentucky senator was very consistent polling at around 9%. Falling down to 5% may be attributed to some of his supporters flocking over to Trump's side.

9. Kasich: The governor of Ohio has jumped from 13th place to 9th after declaring candidacy.

10. Christie: After five consecutive months of decline, Christie's polling numbers are finally stagnating. His hard-core supporters make up 3% of Republican voters.

11. Perry: Rick Perry polled about the same as last month. Unlike Kasich, he has failed to move up significantly in ranking.

12. Santorum: Santorum's polling numbers this month are identical to his April and May numbers.

13. Fiorina: Fiorina shed 2 points during July and has fallen from 9th place to 13th, switching places with John Kasich.

14. Jindal: The Lousiana governor is no longer next-to-last, but he has failed to make any improvement this month.

15. Graham: The South Carolina senator, Strom Thurmond's successor, has dropped half a percentage point, back to his May polling average.

16. Pataki: Pataki is still polling under 1%.

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: After so many men and women have entered the race, it is not a surprise that the voters who would choose someone else or are still undecided has fallen by almost four percentage points.

The four tiers have shifted. The single front-runner is now Donald Trump. Trump has a 12 point lead over Bush. This is bigger than Romney's 10 point lead over Bush back in January when he was still considered to be a possible candidate (Romney: 20%, Bush: 10.5%). Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are currently Trump's only challengers. The contenders now range from Carson to Perry and the long-shots are Santorum and beyond.

Just for fun, I extrapolated Trump's, Bush's, and Walker's polling averages to July 2016, the month of the Republican National Convention (RNC) and adjusted to make up for the remainder. Here are the results:

1. Trump: 61%
2. Walker: 27%
3. Bush: 13%

Donald Trump would easily win the nomination and his runner-mate may be Walker or Bush. However, I hypothesize that a Trump-Cruz ticket would be the most likely considering the fact that Ted Cruz is the only one in the Republican race who does not dislike Donald Trump.

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 55.7% (-2.2 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 19.6% (+5.3 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.3 pp)

5. Jim Webb: 2.3% (+1, +0.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.4% (-1, -0.5 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.8% (+0.4 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.5% (-2.4 pp)

Spread: Clinton +36.1

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Clinton: The front-runner has lost two points this moth and five since May. Her lead has been reduced to 36 percentage points, but she still remains the undisputed front-runner.

Sanders: July was another incredible month of growth for Sanders who is now just below 20%.

Biden: Biden is the only candidate who has not announced that he will run yet. He has to make a decision soon, since his numbers are beginning to evaporate. 

Webb: Webb has finally broken the 2% ceiling and is ahead of O'Malley for the first time since they were tied in March (Webb lead in February).

O'Malley: Unlike Webb, O'Malley's numbers have failed to grow and he has dropped from fourth to fifth place.

Chafee: Chafee's polling average is currently just below 1%.

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: Just like among Republicans, the number of undecided Democratic voters has decreased.

The Democrats also have four main groups. Clinton is the front-runner and her sole challenger is Sanders. Biden remains a contender, while Webb, O'Malley, and Chafee are all long-shots.

I simulated the Democratic National Convention (DNC), just like I did for the RNC:

1. Clinton: 61%

2. Sanders: 39%

Clinton would win handily and we might end up with a Clinton-Sanders ticket.

To wrap up this piece, an interesting poll was conducted by Quinnipiac University for a possible presidential election between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, two candidates on the opposite ends of the political spectrum. The winner? Sanders 44% to 39% for Trump. 

Here is the link to the article: http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/politics/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-poll/

Presidential Primaries: June Polling Averages

Jeb Bush Now Clear Leader in GOP Field; Sanders Overtakes Biden

Ten polls by five different pollsters have been released this month for the Republicans, while six polls by five firms were conducted for the smaller Democratic field. Jeb Bush is ahead in most GOP polls, while Bernie Sanders has managed to pass Joe Biden and is in second place. Hillary Clinton still maintains an enormous lead above her competitors. Most candidates have already announced that they will run, but we still await the announcements of Scott Walker (R), John Kasich (R), and Joe Biden (D).

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Jeb Bush: 14.6% (+2, +3.7 pp)

2. Scott Walker: 10.2% (-2.2 pp)

3. Marco Rubio: 9.4% (-2, -3.1 pp)

4. Ben Carson: 9.4% (+1, -0.1 pp)

5. Rand Paul: 8.9% (+1, +0.3 pp)

6. Donald Trump: 8.6% (+3, +4.8 pp)

7. Mike Huckabee: 7% (-3, -2.7 pp)

8. Ted Cruz: 4.8% (-1, -2.2 pp)

9. Carly Fiorina: 3.5% (+4, +1.8 pp)

10. Rick Perry: 3.3% (+0.6 pp)

11. Chris Christie: 3.2% (-3, -1.6 pp)

12. Rich Santorum: 2.2% (+2, +0.6 pp)

13. John Kasich: 2.0% (-2, -0.1 pp)

14. Lindsey Graham: 1.5% (+2, +0.6 pp)

15. Bobby Jindal: 1.4% (+0.6 pp)

16. George Pataki: 0.2% (-4, -1.6 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.8% (+0.7 pp)

Spread: Bush +4.4

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on. 

 

1. Bush: Jeb Bush is back in the lead. He has already made his presidential announcement and his numbers have jumped by almost 4 points putting him in a clear lead. This is his best lead since the lead he had in February (spread: +4.8 pp) and he is now the sole front-runner.

2. Walker: The Wisconsin governor's numbers continue to drop, but has kept his second place status. 

3. Rubio: Rubio has fell from the lead and is in third place, tied with Carson (Rubio leads by less than one-tenth of a percentage point).

4. Carson: The only African American in the field has kept the supporters he received post-announcement and is virtually tied with Marco Rubio.

5. Paul: The Kentucky senator is polling the most consistently and is only half a point behind Rubio and Carson. However, he struck out at this year's Congressional Baseball Game.

6. Trump: Probably the most outspoken candidate (and the one with the most controversy and media backlash so far), Trump has jumped to sixth place and his numbers have increased by an incredible 5 percentage points.

7. Huckabee: The former governor of Arkansas is losing support and has dropped 3 places and 3 points from fourth to seventh place.

8. Cruz: Cruz is polling at an all-time low. The supporters he received after announcing that he will run for president have evaporated and only his hard-core supporters remain. 

9. Fiorina: The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard has made it into the top ten. She has been consistently increasing in polling numbers since the beginning of her run.

10. Perry: The former governor of Texas has finally made an increase from his previous stagnant state. His polling average is only a bit less than his February average.

11. Christie: Christie loses roughly 1 point every month and this month has been no exception. His support is now just above 3% and is out of the top ten.

12. Santorum: The former senator from Pennsylvania has increased slightly this month and his current polling figures equal his numbers from February.

13. Kasich: Ohio's governor is polling quite consistently, around 2%. He is a possibility for the vice-presidential ticket, since Ohio is a big swing state.

14. Graham: Graham's numbers remain consistently low.

15. Jindal: Jindal is above 1% now, but he is a long shot at winning the nomination.

16. Pataki: The former governor of New York received 0% in 8 of the 10 polls released this month. His polling average right now is at 0.2%. This is not surprising since he is the most moderate candidate, supporting same-sex marriage and being pro-choice.

The candidates have now separated into four general groups. Bush is the only front-runner, the challengers range from Walker to Trump, the contenders (Huckabee to Christie), and the long shots (Santorum to Pataki). The front-runners are the people (in this case the person) in the lead, the challengers are those who may eclipse the front-runner soon, the contenders still have a legitimate chance of winning the nomination, and the long shots barely have a chance.
 

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 57.9% (-3.4 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 14.3% (+1, +6.4 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 12.0% (-1, +0.4 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.9% (+0.4 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.6% (+0.2 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.4% (-0.2 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 11.9% (-3.8 pp)

Spread: Clinton +43.6

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Clinton: Still the hands-down front-runner, Clinton is well ahead of the pack. Her lead is now at 44 points down from nearly 50 last month, but considering the large margin of error in polls (often +/- 5 pp), this is insignificant.

2. Sanders: Sanders has overtaken the vice-president and has jumped by 6 points this month. Many of his new followers are likely former Elizabeth Warren supporters. 

3. Biden: Biden has fallen to third place, but is still only 2 points behind Sanders. However, with no announcement or exploratory committee, we cannot be sure if Biden will run. Some polling firms have not included him. Usually, the vice-president will be elected president if his predecessor (in this case Barack Obama) has high approval ratings. Obama is currently unpopular, not making Biden the first choice for many Democrats. 

4. O'Malley: The Maryland governor has gone up by almost half a point this month. The Baltimore riots do not appear to have hurt him significantly.

5. Webb: Webb's numbers have also gone up, but he is still trailing behind O'Malley for the fourth month in a row.

6. Chafee: A long shot, Chafee's polling average is less than half a percent. 

Presidential Primaries: May Polling Averages

Marco Rubio leads GOP Field, Scott Walker Close Behind

The U.S. presidential polling averages have been updated for the month of May. The Republican field has become more stacked, with the addition of George Pataki, former New York governor, and Donald Trump, billionaire businessman. Marco Rubio and Scott Walker now lead the Republican candidates, but Jeb Bush and a host of others are close behind. Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee, former governor of Rhode Island, has joined the Democratic field, while Elizabeth Warren has announced that she will not run for president. 

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Marco Rubio: 12.5% (+2, -0.3 pp)

2. Scott Walker: 12.4% (-1.6 pp)

3. Jeb Bush: 10.9% (-2, -3.6 pp)

4. Mike Huckabee: 9.7% (+2, +2.3 pp)

5. Ben Carson: 9.5% (+2, +3.4 pp)

6. Rand Paul: 8.6% (-1, -0.6 pp)

7. Ted Cruz: 7% (-3, -2.3 pp)

8. Chris Christie: 4.8% (-0.5 pp)

9. Donald Trump: 3.8%

10. Rick Perry: 2.7% (-1, +0.1 pp)

11. John Kasich: 2.1% (-1, +0.3 pp)

12. George Pataki: 1.8% 

13. Carly Fiorina: 1.7% (+1, +0.4 pp)

14. Rick Santorum: 1.6% (-3)

15. Bobby Jindal: 0.9% (-3, -0.5 pp)

16. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-3, -0.5 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.1% (-2.2 pp)

Note: George Pataki and Donald Trump have been added to the list. 

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Rubio: Rubio has remained unchanged since last month, but due to the decline in support of Walker and Bush, the Florida senator has risen to the top.

2. Walker: Walker is virtually tied with Rubio now in first place. The different is only one-tenth of a percentage point. However, Walker has experienced a drop of almost two points since April.

3. Bush: The former Florida governor is no longer the leader of the pack. He has dropped by nearly 4 points since April and is 5.5 points below their peak of 16.4%. However, Bush is leading the "invisible primary". Among the candidates, he has received the most support and money from donors and super-PACs.

4. Huckabee: After declaring candidacy in May, Huckabee has jumped up over 2 points and is now in fourth. One poll had him in tied the lead with 10%.

5. Carson: The retired neurosurgeon has also made gains this month after announcing his run. He went up over 3 points to fifth place. One poll had him in tied the lead with 10%.

6. Paul: The son of Ron Paul has remained roughly the same as last month. One poll had him tied in the lead with 11%.

7. Cruz: The Texas senator has dropped 2.3 points this month and is now in seventh place. His post-announcement bump seems to have died down.

8. Christie: Chris Christie is continuing to drop and is now under 5%.

9. Trump: The businessman from New York plans to make his announcement next week. Currently he has almost 4% of the vote: most likely from name recognition.

10. Perry: Perry has remained about the same as last month.

11. Kasich: The Ohio governor's numbers are mostly unchanged. His numbers have to improve if we wants to participate in the Fox News debate during the summer (only the top 10 candidates are eligible). He is still considered a contender being the governor of the second-largest swing state and have a large amount of political experience.

12. Pataki: George Pataki has put his name in the hat and is currently polling under 2%.

13. Fiorina: The only female Republican candidate has now increased one rank to thirteenth place. She is considered as a likely vice-presidential nominee on the Republican ticket.

14. Santorum: Santorum's numbers have been unchanged since April.

15. Jindal: The Lousiana governor has fallen to second-last place.

16. Graham: The  senator is polling under 1%. He may not even win the primaries in his home state of South Carolina.

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 61.3% (+1.4 pp)
2. Joe Biden: 11.6% (+1, +0.2 pp)
3. Bernie Sanders: 7.9% (+1, +3.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.5% (+1, +0.2 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.4% (+1, +0.3 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.6%


Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 15.7% (+5.7 pp) (this is largely composed of former Elizabeth Warren supporters who still chose her in some polls)

Note: Lincoln Chafee been added to the list, while Elizabeth Warren has been removed. 

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Clinton: Clinton is still the clear front-runner with over 60% support. 

Biden: After Warren's decision not to run, Biden is now in second place. However, he has polled poorly this month and may be overtaken by Sanders soon.

Sanders: Many of Warren's supporters seem to have flocked to Sanders who's average rose by 3.7 percentage points.

O'Malley: O'Malley maintains his lead over Webb. He announced that he would run on May 29, so this is not reflected in May's polls.

Webb: The former senator from Virginia is polling roughly the same as last month.

Chafee: The former senator and former governor of Rhode Island has entered the race, but he is polling just over 0.5%, making his winning the Democratic nomination a long-shot.  

Presidential Primaries: April Polling Averages Update

The U.S. presidential polling averages have been updated for the month of April. Five polls have been released this month for the Republicans. Two of them have Jeb Bush in the lead, two put Marco Rubio up front, and one poll has Scott Walker leading. Only one Democratic poll has been released with Elizabeth Warren. Many polling firms are no longer including her, so if further polls do not include the Massachusetts senator, then I will have to update the numbers for the Democrats and remove Warren. The one poll I included for the Democrats has Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead with Warren in second and Joe Biden in third.

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the March update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Jeb Bush: 14.5% (-1.7 pp)

2. Scott Walker: 14% (-1.8 pp)

3. Marco Rubio: 12.8% (+4, +6.5 pp)

4. Ted Cruz: 9.3% (+2, +0.7 pp)

5. Rand Paul: 9.2% (+0.4 pp)

6. Mike Huckabee: 7.4% (-2, -1.6 pp)

7. Ben Carson: 6.1% (-4, -3.2 pp)

8. Chris Christie: 5.3% (-0.7 pp)

9. Rick Perry: 2.6%

10. John Kasich: 1.8% (+2, +0.4 pp)

11. Rick Santorum: 1.6% (-1, -0.2 pp)

12. Bobby Jindal: 1.4% (-1, -0.3 pp)

13. Lindsey Graham: 1.4%

14. Carly Fiorina: 1.3%

 

Note: Carly Fiorina and Lindsey Graham have been added to the list. 

 

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on. 

Bush: Bush's numbers went down this month as his friend and fellow Florida politician, Marco Rubio, declared candidacy. He is still in the lead, but is only half a percentage point above Walker. The polls have given Bush a variety of percentages. NBC/The Wall Street Journal gave him 23%, while The Economist and Fox News put him at only 9%, in third place.

Walker: The Wisconsin governor's polling average has gone down for the first time after a rapid increase from January to March. However, he is close behind Jeb Bush. For a brief time in mid-April (one polling average update), Walker was just ahead of Bush.

Rubio: Rubio's polling average more than doubled after he announced that he would seek the Republican nomination for president. With nearly 13%, Rubio can now be considered a front-runner.

Cruz: The Texas senator has gone up this month and is in fourth place, still a contender for the Republican nomination. He was in third in a previous polling update.

Paul: Rand Paul also experienced a polling bump after announcing candidacy. He has maintained this fifth place position and has been polling quite consistently.

Huckabee: The 2008 Republican primary contender has dropped two places. However, the polling average here does not include polls that were taken after he announced that he would run for president. 

Carson: Dr. Ben Carson has had the biggest fall this month. He was in third place in March with 9.3%, but he is now at only 6.1% and in seventh. Carson also said that he will run for president, but March polls do not reflect this as they were taken beforehand.

Christie: Christie is still continuing in a downward trend.

Perry: The former Texas governor's polling average has not changed since March.

Kasich: The Ohio governor's average increased very slightly, but enough to place him ahead of Santorum and Jindal.

Santorum: The 2012 Republican primary runner-up has polled no higher than 3% this month.

Jindal: Jindal is in 12th place with poor polling results.

Graham: The senior senator from South Carolina has been added to the list. He is currently polling at 1.4%, less than a percentage point behind Bobby Jindal.

Fiorina: A former business executive, Fiorina is currently polling at 1.3%. She is the only major female Republican candidate and is also one of the wealthiest candidates running.

The Republicans appear to have separated into three main tiers: the front-runners (Bush, Walker, and Rubio), the challengers (Cruz to Christie), and the long-shots (Perry to Fiorina). All these levels are based solely on polls. Larry J. Sabato, from the University of Virginia, has made a great classification of the Republican and Democratic candidates and has categorized them. His tiers are based not only on polls, but also political experience, money, and support. I recommend that you check it out and subscribe to his email newsletters. 

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the March update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 59.9% (-0.3 pp)
2. Elizabeth Warren: 12.1% (+1, +0.4 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 11.4% (-1, -1.8 pp)
4. Bernie Sanders: 4.2% (+0.3 pp)
5. Martin O'Malley: 1.3% (+1)
6. Jim Webb: 1.1% (-1, -0.2 pp)

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Clinton: The former First Lady and Secretary of State is still well ahead of the pack.

Warren: Warren has overtaken Joe Biden, but is still miles behind Hillary Clinton.

Biden: The vice-president is now behind Warren and is in third place.

Sanders: The independent senator from Vermont (he caucuses with the Democrats) has been polling consistently. He announced that he would run for president on April 30. This is not reflected in this month's poll.

O'Malley: Martin O'Malley is still in front of Jim Webb, but the recent Baltimore riots may cause him some trouble in future polls.

Webb: The Virginia senator is polling at 1.1% and is in sixth.

The Democratic primary is much less competitive than the GOP field and some believe that it will be more of a coronation than a contest.

Rubio Now In Third Place, Warren Overtakes Biden

FOX News has released a new poll for the presidential nomination race. Marco Rubio takes the lead once again with 13%. Scott Walker is close behind at 12%. Rand Paul placed third with 10% and Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee each received 9%. Ted Cruz polled at 8%. 

Hillary Clinton still leads the Democrats with 62%. Elizabeth Warren is the runner-up with 12% and the FOX News poll gave Joe Biden 9%.

The polling averages have been updated.

Republican Nomination

1. Jeb Bush: 14.1%

2. Scott Walker: 13.2%

3. Marco Rubio: 9.7% (+2)

4. Ted Cruz: 9.2% (-1)

5. Rand Paul: 9.0% (-1)

6. Mike Huckabee: 8.5% 

7. Ben Carson: 6.5% 

8. Chris Christie: 5.5%

9. Rick Perry: 2.9%

10. Rick Santorum: 1.8%

11. John Kasich: 1.6%

12. Bobby Jindal: 1.3% 

 

Rubio is now ahead of Cruz and Paul and is in third place. There has clearly been a loss of support for the front-runners, Bush and Walker, ever since Rubio, Cruz, and Paul launched their campaigns.

Democratic Nomination

 

1. Hillary Clinton: 59.9%

2. Elizabeth Warren: 12.1%

3. Joe Biden: 11.4% 

4. Bernie Sanders: 4.2%

5. Martin O'Malley: 1.3% 

6. Jim Webb: 1.1%

 

The Democratic field is much more static and much less competitive than the Republican field. Everyone has polled quite consistently so far. However, Warren has managed to overtake Biden and O'Malley and Webb are no longer tied. 

 

 

 

 

 

Rubio Leads in Quinnipiac Poll

A recent opinion poll released by Quinnipiac University shows Marco Rubio in the lead for the first time, with 15%. Jeb Bush is in second with 13%, Scott Walker is third with 11%, Ted Cruz is fourth with 9%, and Rand Paul is fifth with 8%. This is another poor poll for Dr. Ben Carson, who received only 3%. Meanwhile, New Jersey governor Chris Christie polled well with 7%.

The polling averages for the Republicans have been updated and can be seen below.

Republican Nomination

1. Jeb Bush: 15.3%

2. Scott Walker: 13.6%

3. Ted Cruz: 9.3%

4. Rand Paul: 8.7% 

5. Marco Rubio: 8.7% (+2)

6. Mike Huckabee: 8.4% (-1)

7. Ben Carson: 6.8% (-1)

8. Chris Christie: 5.5%

9. Rick Perry: 3.1%

10. Rick Santorum: 1.9%

11. John Kasich: 1.5% (+1)

12. Bobby Jindal: 1.4% (-1)

 

 Just like what Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have previously done, Rubio has leapfrogged over Huckabee and Carson and is tied with Paul in fourth place (but Paul is ahead by less than one-tenth of a percentage point). Jeb Bush maintains his lead and the gap between him and Scott Walker has increased. Both of these candidates' numbers are decreasing, but the decrease seems bigger for Walker. Carson's average has dropped again and he finds himself at under 7%. John Kasich has overtaken Bobby Jindal, but Santorum, Kasich, and Jindal are all within striking distance of each other.