2015 IAAF World Championships Men's 100 Metres Sprint

Tomorrow, August 23, will be the date of the 100m semi-finals and finals of the 2015 IAAF World Championships. Most of this year's top sprinters qualified for the semis. Dasaolu and Bledman were eliminated in the heats. Others, such as Bailey-Cole, Richard Thompson, and Gemili missed out due to injuries. Some other sprinters including Ryan Bailey, Blake, and Carter were eliminated in their respective national championships. But despite some athletes missing, the start lists for the semi-finals and the finals will still be very good featuring stars like Gatlin, Bolt, Powell, Gay, Bromell, De Grasse, Vicaut, Rodgers, Ashmeade, Ogunode, Lemaitre, and Ujah, just to name a few. Bolt is facing his toughest competition yet and the 100m world record may be in jeopardy. It is even possible that for the first time in history, all eight sprinters will run sub-10 seconds (7 out of 8 sprinters were sub-10 in the finals of London 2012).

Here are the results that my model predicts:

Semi-Finals

Heat 1

1. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08) Q
2. De Grasse (CAN): 9.95s (9.85-10.05) Q
3. Bolt (JAM): 9.96s (9.81-10.11)
4. Bruintjies (RSA): 9.97s (9.87-10.07)   
5. Su (CHN): 9.99s (9.89-10.09)       
6. Harvey (TUR): 10.03s (9.93-10.13)   
7. Reus (GER): 10.07s (9.97-10.17)
8. Lemaitre (FRA): 10.13s (9.94-10.32)

Heat 2

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00) Q
2. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.17) Q   
3. Rodgers (USA): 9.92s (9.79-10.05) q
4. Ogunode (QAT): 9.92s (9.76-10.08)
5. Ujah (GBR): 9.94s (9.68-10.20)
6. Simbine (RSA): 9.97s (9.71-10.23)
7. Cadogan (BAR): 10.06s (9.96-10.16)       
8. Brown (CAN): 10.08s (9.98-10.18)

Heat 3

1. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02) Q   
2. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10) Q
3. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14) q
4. Gittens (BAR): 10.02s (9.92-10.12)
5. Meite (CIV): 10.05s (9.95-10.15)
6. Kilty (GBR): 10.05s (9.95-10.15)
7. Taftina (IRI): 10.10s (10.00-10.20)
8. Martina (NED): 10.18s (9.88-10.48)

Final

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08)
3. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.17)
4. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
5. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
6. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
7. Rodgers (USA): 9.92s (9.79-10.05
8. De Grasse (CAN): 9.95s (9.85-10.05)

Gold: Gatlin (USA)
Silver: Bromell (USA)
Bronze: Ashmeade (JAM)

World Champion: Justin Gatlin (USA)

This quadratic regression model shows that Gatlin would win it all. Here is what some other models say:

Moving average (2 period): 1) Gatlin, 2) Powell, 3) Gay

Linear: 1) Gay 2) Gatlin 3) Vicaut

Exponential: 1) Gay 2) Gatlin 3) Vicaut

However, despite these models, I still predict that Usain Bolt will win. Here's why.

 

Bolt 2008 pre-Olympics: 9.72s

Bolt 2008 Olympics: 9.69s

Difference: 0.03s

Bolt 2009 pre-World Championships: 9.79s

Bolt 2009 World Championships: 9.58s

Difference: 0.21s

Bolt 2012 pre-Olympics: 9.76s

Bolt 2012 Olympics: 9.63s

Difference: 0.13s

Bolt 2013 pre-World Championships: 9.85s

Bolt 2013 World Championships: 9.77s

Difference: 0.08s

Average Difference: 0.1125s

Now applying this difference,

Bolt 2015 pre-World Championships: 9.87s

Bolt 2015 World Championships: 9.76s (9.66-9.84)

Meanwhile for Gatlin,

Gatlin 2012 pre-Olympics: 9.80s

Gatlin 2012 Olympics: 9.79s

Difference: 0.01s

Gatlin 2013 pre-World Championships: 9.85s

Gatlin 2013 World Championships: 9.89s

Difference: 0.04s

Average Difference: 0.025s

Now applying this difference,

Gatlin 2015 pre-World Championships: 9.74

Gatlin 2015 World Championships: 9.72s (9.70-9.73)

Note that 2010 and 2014 were gap years (no major competitions other than Diamond League Meets) and Bolt false started and was disqualified in 2011, while Gatlin was still on the road to recovery following his drug bans. Hence, these years have been omitted. 

This shows that it will be very hard for Gatlin to run sub 9.7, but for Bolt it is possible. Gatlin has been very consistent, constantly running times in the 9.70's, but he has so far failed to run in the 9.6's. Meanwhile, for the defending champion, this is still possible. 

Another important factor to consider are basic times: times adjusted for wind speeds and elevation. Gatlin's best basic time of 2015 is 9.78s while for Bolt it is 9.80: a difference of only 0.02 seconds.

Other challengers include Bromell, the 20 year-old sprinting sensation. However, he is still inexperienced and young. Gay and Powell can clock speedy times, but often under perform in major competitions. If Bolt were still injured, I'd predict that Gatlin would win. But now I'm saying Bolt first, then Gatlin, and Powell with the bronze. But either way, this race will be a good one.

Gatlin Wins in Lausanne and Monaco

Lausanne and Monaco IAAF Diamond League Meets

Two great athletic meets took place during the last two weeks. Justin Gatlin easily won both races. On July 9, Gatlin ran 9.75 beating Asafa Powell (9.92) and Tyson Gay (9.92). Powell was ahead of Gay by less than one one-hundredth of a second. On the 17th in Monaco, Gatlin ran 9.78s against a -0.3 m/s headwind beating Tyson Gay (9.97) and Jimmy Vicaut (10.03). Young sprinting sensation, Trayvon Bromell was disqualified after a false start. At the same meet, the American 4x100m relay team consisting of Gatlin, Bromell, Rodgers, and Gay ran a strong 37.87s.

My sprinting projection (see http://logbook2015.blogspot.ca/2015/07/the-2015-sprinting-season-is-going-to.html) did extremely well for the 100m race in Lausanne.

Here are the final results (in brackets actual minus projected times are stated):

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.75s (-0.07)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.92s (-0.01)
3. Gay (USA): 9.92s (-0.01)
4. Rodgers (USA): 10.03s (+0.10)
5. Bledman (TTO): 10.03s (+0.09)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.08s (+0.03)
7. Young (USA): 10.11s (+0.04)
DNS Batson (USA)

The ranking was 100% on the mark. The average error in times (absolute error) was 0.05s. Note that the projection could obviously not predict Batson not appearing on the start list for this race.

Here are the predicted results for the Monaco meet (in brackets time interval is stated):

1. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08)
2. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
3. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.44)
4. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
5. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
6. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
7. Ujah (GBR): 10.03s (9.79-10.27)
8. Biron (FRA): 10.18s (10.08-10.28)

Adjusting to account for Bromell's disqualification:

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.44)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Ujah (GBR): 10.03s (9.79-10.27)
7. Biron (FRA): 10.18s (10.08-10.28)

Actual results:

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.78s (-0.04)
2. Gay (USA): 9.97s (+0.06)
3. Vicaut (FRA): 10.03s (+0.12)
4. Ujah (GBR): 10.08s (+0.05)
5. Bledman (TTO): 10.10s (+0.16)
6. Ashmeade (JAM): 10.11s (+0.22)
7. Biron (FRA): 10.17s (-0.01)
DQ Bromell (USA)

Every time was off by average 0.09s. Each rank was off by average 1.

The models fared very well in both races.

Is Bolt Back?

The next Diamond League race will be in London from July 24 to 25. World record holder, world champion, and Olympic champion Usain Bolt has stated that he plans to race in this meet. This is the last major race before the World Championships in August, so it will be a good test to see if Bolt will be fit to compete. Bolt only really trains for major competitions, so despite running poor times this year, he may do well in London. However, he has to run at least in the 9.8's in order to have a shot at beating Justin Gatlin in the Worlds. Unfortunately, we will not see Bolt and Gatlin face off in London. Gatlin has not been invited due to previous drug bans. This seems somewhat hypocritical, since other former performance enhancing drug users, such as Michael Rodgers, will be competing. We will have to wait until the World Championships in Beijing to see who is the fastest man: Bolt or Gatlin?

The 2015 Sprinting Season is Going to Be Big

Season Kicks Off with a Bang

Asafa Powell ran the first sub-10 of 2015, running 9.84 seconds at the Jamaican Invitational Open. Then at the Doha Diamond League meet, Justin Gatlin ran the 100m in 9.74, making him the fifth fastest man on Earth. He then ran 9.75 at the Rome Diamond League meet. These times are incredible considering the fact that both Powell and Gatlin are over 30 years old and this is only the beginning of the season. As major competitions, including the IAAF World Championships and further Diamond League Championships take place, these athletes will be running even faster.

National Championships

The U.S.A. Outdoor Track and Field Championships as well as the Jamaica trials and Trinidad and Tobago trials took place in June. Powell ran another 9.84, winning the trials. Nickel Ashmeade and Kemar Bailey-Cole have also qualified as part of the Jamaican national team. Nesta Carter came fourth in the final, while Yohan Blake, who is recovering from several injuries, was eliminated in the semi-finals. Usain Bolt did not participate due to injuries (he already has a bye to the World Championships being the defending champion). Tyson Gay, on the comeback trail, won the U.S. Championships running 9.87s in the final. Nineteen year old Trayvon Bromell took second place. In a qualifying round, he ran 9.84. This is incredible since he is still a very young sprinter. Bromell has a bright future ahead of him and if these fast times continue, he will be a contender for future championships, Olympics, and even the world record. Mike Rodgers took the third American qualifying spot. Ryan Bailey false started in the first round, while Justin Gatlin who is already qualified after winning the 2014 Diamond League ran the 200m where he set a personal best and world leading time of 19.57 seconds. Keston Bledman won the Trinidad and Tobago trials with a winning time of 9.86s, tying Ato Boldon as the fastest man from these islands (Richard Thompson ran 9.82 last year). Richard Thompson did not participate due to an injury. 

Bolt Struggling

The fastest man in the world is doing badly this season. Very badly. His best time this year was 10.12 running against a headwind in Rio de Janeiro in a friendly race against some sprinters, including Ryan Bailey and Churandy Martina. His "basic", wind and altitude corrected time would be 10.04s, still not sub-10 (http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/wind/). Bolt struggled to win the 200m race at the New York Adidas Grand Prix (part of the IAAF Diamond League) with no real competitors. His time for this race was his slowest since 2006. Bolt has also pulled out of the Jamaican trials citing injuries, recovering, and the need for more training. He also dropped out of some other races, including the Diamond League meet in Paris. Bolt pulling out of the World Championships seems like a real possibility now. If he would enter the competition with insufficient training and recovering from injuries, he would face the same fate as Yohan Blake during this year's Jamaican trials: elimination. In my opinion, Usain Bolt would rather pull out of a race then run not 100% and probably lose. However, the fastest man in the world is a wild card. Bolt only really trains for major competitions. In 2012 he came second in the Jamaican Olympic trials to Yohan Blake in both the 100m and 200m events. He seemed very vulnerable, but ended up breaking the Olympic record and running to gold with a time of 9.63s in the final. Still, the Bolt from 2012 is better than 2015's Bolt. Usain Bolt not participating in the World Championships seems like a real possibility.

Diamond League Lausanne Meet

On Thursday July 9, a major Diamond League 100m race will take place. Several of the year's fastest runners, Justin Gatlin, Asafa Powell, Tyson Gay, Keston Bledman, Jimmy Vicaut, Kim Collins, and Isiah Young, are on the entry list. With so many top sprinters in the lineup, this race can be viewed as a dress rehearsal for the 2015 IAAF World Championships 100m final. Using my model, here are the predicted times for each runner (projected time and time interval are included).

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Rodgers (USA): 9.93s (9.80-10.06)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.05s (9.89-10.21)
7. Young (USA): 10.07s (9.89-10.25)

With this stacked lineup, I predict that Gatlin may run sub-9.7 this race, if the wind is favourable. This will be the first face-off of Gatlin, Powell, and Gay this season. This will not be a race to miss.

The 100 Meter Sprint: What Can 2014 Tell Us About 2015?

2014 was probably not the most exciting year for the men's 100m sprint. There was no world championship or Olympics that year. Usain Bolt was out for most of the season after an ankle injury. Yohan Blake was absent due to a hamstring injury. Asafa Powell and Tyson Gay served drug bans for much of the year. Only Justin Gatlin made big headlines after winning the IAAF Diamond League and running with an impressive time and a personal best of 9.77s making him the fifth fastest human being of all time.

I graphed the best year times of over a dozen of the fastest 100m track sprinters currently active and then extrapolated. I chose a quadratic fit. It gave relatively good R-squared values meaning a close fit, and modelling a sprinter's progression over time seems to be parabolic: they start with a time of 10.3-ish, then progress further down maybe to 10, if they are good they can get a sub-10 time, let's say 9.9. But after reaching that peak (or minimum) they get older, more injury-prone, and slower. Our sprinter now runs at 9.98. The next year he's running in the low 10's. After that he runs 10.5 and then his professional career is probably over. 

A linear fit doesn't seem right, since sprinter's don't get faster forever: it's only useful for a short period of time. I would not consider their progression exponential either. No one (well almost no one) jumps from 10.1 in one year to 9.8 the next. If we increase the power and move to cubic, quartic or higher, the R-squared value increases, but the equation gets very dynamic, making modelling difficult. A moving average takes away much of the fluctuation and shows long term trends, but cannot be used to extrapolate and an appropriate period must be chosen.

Note that the extrapolations are probably no good after three years or so. It's all right to make an extrapolation for the next year, but after that your confidence level decreases. Sprinting is a very complex sport and is difficult to accurately predict a race's result.

Of course there are exceptions: Justin Galtin is a big one. His R-squared value is 0.5, so the extrapolation is correct 50% of the time. If we look at his history, this seems more understandable. Gatlin won the 2004 Athens Olympics 100m sprint in 9.85 seconds. However, he was banned in 2006 for drug use. Then he made a comeback in 2010. That year, his best time was 10.09, so many thought that his career was over. But they were wrong. Gatlin ran 9.95 the next year and won the bronze medal at the 2012 London Olympics with a time of 9.79s. He then ran 9.85 in 2013 and broke his personal best with a time of 9.77s at the 2014 Diamond League Final. Other factors to consider about Gatlin's unpredictability are his age (he is 33, quite old for a sprinter) and his previous history of performance-enhancing drug (PED) use.

Here is the graph showing the extrapolations for sprinters' best times up to 2016:

Note that the graph is truncated and only the data after 2011 is included.

The extrapolation suggests the following ranking for fastest sprinters of 2015:

1. Kemar Bailey-Cole (JAM)

2. Nickel Ashmeade (JAM)

3. Justin Gatlin (USA)

The problem with this prediction is that Bailey-Cole's best time is 9.93s and he would have to run .13 seconds faster (that's a lot in sprinting) in order to run his projected time of 9.80s. It's also unlikely that Gatlin will only run in 9.90s when one looks at his previous successes in recent years. Bolt is out of the picture and so are many other top-tier runners.

This projection will improve as sprinters begin to run again in competitions once the sprinting season is in full swing: that will probably be on May 15 during the first IAAF Diamond League event in Doha, Qatar.