The 2015 Sprinting Season is Going to Be Big

Season Kicks Off with a Bang

Asafa Powell ran the first sub-10 of 2015, running 9.84 seconds at the Jamaican Invitational Open. Then at the Doha Diamond League meet, Justin Gatlin ran the 100m in 9.74, making him the fifth fastest man on Earth. He then ran 9.75 at the Rome Diamond League meet. These times are incredible considering the fact that both Powell and Gatlin are over 30 years old and this is only the beginning of the season. As major competitions, including the IAAF World Championships and further Diamond League Championships take place, these athletes will be running even faster.

National Championships

The U.S.A. Outdoor Track and Field Championships as well as the Jamaica trials and Trinidad and Tobago trials took place in June. Powell ran another 9.84, winning the trials. Nickel Ashmeade and Kemar Bailey-Cole have also qualified as part of the Jamaican national team. Nesta Carter came fourth in the final, while Yohan Blake, who is recovering from several injuries, was eliminated in the semi-finals. Usain Bolt did not participate due to injuries (he already has a bye to the World Championships being the defending champion). Tyson Gay, on the comeback trail, won the U.S. Championships running 9.87s in the final. Nineteen year old Trayvon Bromell took second place. In a qualifying round, he ran 9.84. This is incredible since he is still a very young sprinter. Bromell has a bright future ahead of him and if these fast times continue, he will be a contender for future championships, Olympics, and even the world record. Mike Rodgers took the third American qualifying spot. Ryan Bailey false started in the first round, while Justin Gatlin who is already qualified after winning the 2014 Diamond League ran the 200m where he set a personal best and world leading time of 19.57 seconds. Keston Bledman won the Trinidad and Tobago trials with a winning time of 9.86s, tying Ato Boldon as the fastest man from these islands (Richard Thompson ran 9.82 last year). Richard Thompson did not participate due to an injury. 

Bolt Struggling

The fastest man in the world is doing badly this season. Very badly. His best time this year was 10.12 running against a headwind in Rio de Janeiro in a friendly race against some sprinters, including Ryan Bailey and Churandy Martina. His "basic", wind and altitude corrected time would be 10.04s, still not sub-10 (http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/wind/). Bolt struggled to win the 200m race at the New York Adidas Grand Prix (part of the IAAF Diamond League) with no real competitors. His time for this race was his slowest since 2006. Bolt has also pulled out of the Jamaican trials citing injuries, recovering, and the need for more training. He also dropped out of some other races, including the Diamond League meet in Paris. Bolt pulling out of the World Championships seems like a real possibility now. If he would enter the competition with insufficient training and recovering from injuries, he would face the same fate as Yohan Blake during this year's Jamaican trials: elimination. In my opinion, Usain Bolt would rather pull out of a race then run not 100% and probably lose. However, the fastest man in the world is a wild card. Bolt only really trains for major competitions. In 2012 he came second in the Jamaican Olympic trials to Yohan Blake in both the 100m and 200m events. He seemed very vulnerable, but ended up breaking the Olympic record and running to gold with a time of 9.63s in the final. Still, the Bolt from 2012 is better than 2015's Bolt. Usain Bolt not participating in the World Championships seems like a real possibility.

Diamond League Lausanne Meet

On Thursday July 9, a major Diamond League 100m race will take place. Several of the year's fastest runners, Justin Gatlin, Asafa Powell, Tyson Gay, Keston Bledman, Jimmy Vicaut, Kim Collins, and Isiah Young, are on the entry list. With so many top sprinters in the lineup, this race can be viewed as a dress rehearsal for the 2015 IAAF World Championships 100m final. Using my model, here are the predicted times for each runner (projected time and time interval are included).

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Rodgers (USA): 9.93s (9.80-10.06)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.05s (9.89-10.21)
7. Young (USA): 10.07s (9.89-10.25)

With this stacked lineup, I predict that Gatlin may run sub-9.7 this race, if the wind is favourable. This will be the first face-off of Gatlin, Powell, and Gay this season. This will not be a race to miss.