Presidential Primaries: May Polling Averages

Marco Rubio leads GOP Field, Scott Walker Close Behind

The U.S. presidential polling averages have been updated for the month of May. The Republican field has become more stacked, with the addition of George Pataki, former New York governor, and Donald Trump, billionaire businessman. Marco Rubio and Scott Walker now lead the Republican candidates, but Jeb Bush and a host of others are close behind. Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee, former governor of Rhode Island, has joined the Democratic field, while Elizabeth Warren has announced that she will not run for president. 

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Marco Rubio: 12.5% (+2, -0.3 pp)

2. Scott Walker: 12.4% (-1.6 pp)

3. Jeb Bush: 10.9% (-2, -3.6 pp)

4. Mike Huckabee: 9.7% (+2, +2.3 pp)

5. Ben Carson: 9.5% (+2, +3.4 pp)

6. Rand Paul: 8.6% (-1, -0.6 pp)

7. Ted Cruz: 7% (-3, -2.3 pp)

8. Chris Christie: 4.8% (-0.5 pp)

9. Donald Trump: 3.8%

10. Rick Perry: 2.7% (-1, +0.1 pp)

11. John Kasich: 2.1% (-1, +0.3 pp)

12. George Pataki: 1.8% 

13. Carly Fiorina: 1.7% (+1, +0.4 pp)

14. Rick Santorum: 1.6% (-3)

15. Bobby Jindal: 0.9% (-3, -0.5 pp)

16. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-3, -0.5 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.1% (-2.2 pp)

Note: George Pataki and Donald Trump have been added to the list. 

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Rubio: Rubio has remained unchanged since last month, but due to the decline in support of Walker and Bush, the Florida senator has risen to the top.

2. Walker: Walker is virtually tied with Rubio now in first place. The different is only one-tenth of a percentage point. However, Walker has experienced a drop of almost two points since April.

3. Bush: The former Florida governor is no longer the leader of the pack. He has dropped by nearly 4 points since April and is 5.5 points below their peak of 16.4%. However, Bush is leading the "invisible primary". Among the candidates, he has received the most support and money from donors and super-PACs.

4. Huckabee: After declaring candidacy in May, Huckabee has jumped up over 2 points and is now in fourth. One poll had him in tied the lead with 10%.

5. Carson: The retired neurosurgeon has also made gains this month after announcing his run. He went up over 3 points to fifth place. One poll had him in tied the lead with 10%.

6. Paul: The son of Ron Paul has remained roughly the same as last month. One poll had him tied in the lead with 11%.

7. Cruz: The Texas senator has dropped 2.3 points this month and is now in seventh place. His post-announcement bump seems to have died down.

8. Christie: Chris Christie is continuing to drop and is now under 5%.

9. Trump: The businessman from New York plans to make his announcement next week. Currently he has almost 4% of the vote: most likely from name recognition.

10. Perry: Perry has remained about the same as last month.

11. Kasich: The Ohio governor's numbers are mostly unchanged. His numbers have to improve if we wants to participate in the Fox News debate during the summer (only the top 10 candidates are eligible). He is still considered a contender being the governor of the second-largest swing state and have a large amount of political experience.

12. Pataki: George Pataki has put his name in the hat and is currently polling under 2%.

13. Fiorina: The only female Republican candidate has now increased one rank to thirteenth place. She is considered as a likely vice-presidential nominee on the Republican ticket.

14. Santorum: Santorum's numbers have been unchanged since April.

15. Jindal: The Lousiana governor has fallen to second-last place.

16. Graham: The  senator is polling under 1%. He may not even win the primaries in his home state of South Carolina.

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 61.3% (+1.4 pp)
2. Joe Biden: 11.6% (+1, +0.2 pp)
3. Bernie Sanders: 7.9% (+1, +3.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.5% (+1, +0.2 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.4% (+1, +0.3 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.6%


Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 15.7% (+5.7 pp) (this is largely composed of former Elizabeth Warren supporters who still chose her in some polls)

Note: Lincoln Chafee been added to the list, while Elizabeth Warren has been removed. 

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Clinton: Clinton is still the clear front-runner with over 60% support. 

Biden: After Warren's decision not to run, Biden is now in second place. However, he has polled poorly this month and may be overtaken by Sanders soon.

Sanders: Many of Warren's supporters seem to have flocked to Sanders who's average rose by 3.7 percentage points.

O'Malley: O'Malley maintains his lead over Webb. He announced that he would run on May 29, so this is not reflected in May's polls.

Webb: The former senator from Virginia is polling roughly the same as last month.

Chafee: The former senator and former governor of Rhode Island has entered the race, but he is polling just over 0.5%, making his winning the Democratic nomination a long-shot.  

Canada Federal Election: May Polling Averages

NDP Rises to Second Place, While Conservatives and Liberals Drop

The Canadian federal election is now officially a three-way race. The Conservatives still hold onto the lead, but the New Democrats have now just barely overtaken the Liberal Party for second place. 

The polling averages up to May 31 can be seen below:

 

The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month. The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken place.

 

 1. Conservatives: 30.3% (-2.4 pp). The Tories suffered the biggest drop this month. The best poll they had this month was 32.9%, while their lowest poll had them at 28.1%. The lowest the Conservatives have ever polled since the 2011 election was 24.9%, so this appears to be their hard-core supporters. This means that so far the Conservatives have acquired only about 5% of swing or leaning voters. 

2. NDP: 28.5% (+5.8 pp). The New Democrats have surged into second place. They have jumped an incredible 6 points. They are the only party that has gone up this month, implying that some voters from all the major federal parties are flocking over the NDP. This rise has been confirmed by multiple polling firms, including EKOS, Forum, Ipsos Reid, Nanos, and Abacus. However, the question now is whether or not this momentum will last.

3. Liberals: 28.3% (-1.5 pp). The Liberals are virtually tied with the NDP, with a difference of only 0.2 percentage points. This is the first time in quite a while now, since the Liberals have returned to third place. This is also their third consecutive month of dropping since February. 

4. Green Party: 6.6% (-1.3 pp). The Greens have experienced a drop this month. However, they are still ahead of the Bloc Quebecois.

5. Bloc Quebecois: 4.2% (-0.2 pp). The Bloc Quebecois have remained roughly the same as last month. However, they are still not polling high enough to regain official party status (12 seats are required to receive official party status).

6. Others: 2.1% (-0.4 pp): Other parties and independents currently have about 2% of the vote. 

 Regional Model

Now let's look at the numbers a bit closer, region-by-region. Note however, that there are some discrepancies between the regional and national model. Some polling firms, such as Nanos or Ipsos Reid, do not include full regional data. Also, some parties have very strong support in some provinces, so there is some regional variation. Furthermore, the regional sample sizes are small, so the margin of error can be as high as +/- 10%.

The numbers below are based on cube rule regional models. Cube rule works better for the regional level, while square rule is better nationally. This is probably because most regions are a two-way race, while nationally there are multiple parties with a chance of winning. Differences between the May and April numbers are included (percentage point change, seat change).

Atlantic

LPC: 36.3%, 18 seats (-8.8 pp, -8)
CPC: 28.7%, 9 seats (+ 5.7 pp, 6)
NDP: 24.6 %, 5 seats (+ 3.1 pp, 2)
GPC: 7.8%, 0 seats (+ 0.3 pp, 0)
Others: 2.6%, 0 seats (+ 0.2 pp, 0)

The Liberals have experienced quite a drop in the Atlantic with the Conservatives and NDP picking up the lost seats. It will be interesting to see if Peter MacKay's resignation while affect the Conservatives' polling in June. 

Quebec

NDP: 32.9%, 45 seats (+6.1 pp, 16)
LPC: 24.4%, 19 seats (-0.8 pp, -4)
CPC: 17.9%, 7 seats (-4.3 pp, -9)
BQ: 17.3%, 7 seats (-1.2 pp, -3)
GPC: 5.2%, 0 seats (0 pp, 0)
Others: 2.4%, 0 seats (0 pp, 0)

The NDP's biggest gains this month have come from Quebec. The party has now surged into a comfortable lead. The Conservatives had the greatest losses in this province. In early June, Gilles Duceppe announced that he would return to lead the Bloc Quebecois. Will the Bloc's numbers go back up? We'll have to wait to see.

Ontario

CPC: 36%, 62 seats (-1 pp, -4)
LPC: 32.4%, 45 seats (+ 0.1 pp, 1)
NDP: 21.9%, 14 seats (+1.8  pp, 3)
GPC: 7%, 0 seats (-0.4 pp, 0)
Others: 2.7%, 0 seats (-0.5 pp, 0)

There have not been any major changes in Ontario. The Conservatives have lost a few seats, while the Liberals and New Democrats have gained a couple. Ontario is the only province where the Liberals have gained a seat this month. 

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

CPC: 41%, 19 seats (+0.5 pp, 1)
LPC: 26.1%, 5 seats (-3.5 pp, -2)
NDP: 25.1%, 4 seats (+3.9 pp, 1)
GPC: 5.5%, 0 seats (-1.1 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (+ 0.2 pp, 0)

Manitoba and Saskatchewan are also pretty static at the moment. Only minor seat changes have taken place. The Conservatives still hold a comfortable lead. 

Alberta

CPC: 45.5%, 27 seats (+2.6 pp, 1)
NDP: 26.4%, 5 seats (+2.4 pp, 0)
LPC: 17.8%, 2 seats (-3.7 pp, -1)
GPC: 5.9%, 0 seats (-0.9 pp, 0)
Others: 4.5%, 0 seats (-0.3 pp, 0)

Did the Alberta provincial election affect the federal landscape? No. In fact, the Conservatives have gone up the most in Alberta this month. The NDP has increased their popular vote, but have not increased their seat count in Alberta. 

British Columbia

NDP: 29.6%, 16 seats (+5.4 pp, 8)
CPC: 28.1%, 13 seats (-3.3 pp, -6)
LPC: 26.5%, 11 seats (-1.2 pp, -2)
GPC: 13.5%, 2 seats (-0.8 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (-0.1 pp, 0)

British Columbia is a province where a lot has taken place this month. The NDP have risen by over 5 points and have gained 8 new seats. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have lost seats in this province. 

The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
LPC:  0 seats
NDP:  1 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I cannot add any percentage figures either.

Canada

CPC:  139 seats (-11)
LPC:  100 seats (-16)
NDP:  90 seats (+30)
BQ: 7 seats (-3)
GPC:  2 seats (0)
Others: 0 seats (0)

The NDP have made huge gains this month increasing its popular vote in every region of the country. The Liberals have been the biggest losers, but the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois have lost several seats as well. If an election were held today, the most probable outcome would be a Conservative minority government with the Liberal Party as the Official Opposition.