The Canadian federal election is now officially a three-way race. The Conservatives still hold onto the lead, but the New Democrats have now just barely overtaken the Liberal Party for second place.
The polling averages up to May 31 can be seen below:
The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month.
The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank
and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red
means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken
place.
1. Conservatives: 30.3% (-2.4 pp). The Tories suffered the biggest drop this month. The best poll they had this month was 32.9%, while their lowest poll had them at 28.1%. The lowest the Conservatives have ever polled since the 2011 election was 24.9%, so this appears to be their hard-core supporters. This means that so far the Conservatives have acquired only about 5% of swing or leaning voters.
2. NDP: 28.5% (+5.8 pp). The New Democrats have surged into second place. They have jumped an incredible 6 points. They are the only party that has gone up this month, implying that some voters from all the major federal parties are flocking over the NDP. This rise has been confirmed by multiple polling firms, including EKOS, Forum, Ipsos Reid, Nanos, and Abacus. However, the question now is whether or not this momentum will last.
3. Liberals: 28.3% (-1.5 pp). The Liberals are virtually tied with the NDP, with a difference of only 0.2 percentage points. This is the first time in quite a while now, since the Liberals have returned to third place. This is also their third consecutive month of dropping since February.
4. Green Party: 6.6% (-1.3 pp). The Greens have experienced a drop this month. However, they are still ahead of the Bloc Quebecois.
5. Bloc Quebecois: 4.2% (-0.2 pp). The Bloc Quebecois have remained roughly the same as last month. However, they are still not polling high enough to regain official party status (12 seats are required to receive official party status).
6. Others: 2.1% (-0.4 pp): Other parties and independents currently have about 2% of the vote.
Regional Model
Now let's look at the numbers a bit closer, region-by-region. Note however, that there are some discrepancies between the regional and national model. Some polling firms, such as Nanos or Ipsos Reid, do not include full regional data. Also, some parties have very strong support in some provinces, so there is some regional variation. Furthermore, the regional sample sizes are small, so the margin of error can be as high as +/- 10%.
The numbers below are based on cube rule regional models. Cube rule works better for the regional level, while square rule is better nationally. This is probably because most regions are a two-way race, while nationally there are multiple parties with a chance of winning. Differences between the May and April numbers are included (percentage point change, seat change).
LPC: 36.3%, 18 seats (-8.8 pp, -8)
CPC: 28.7%, 9 seats (+ 5.7 pp, 6)
NDP: 24.6 %, 5 seats (+ 3.1 pp, 2)
GPC: 7.8%, 0 seats (+ 0.3 pp, 0)
Others: 2.6%, 0 seats (+ 0.2 pp, 0)
The Liberals have experienced quite a drop in the Atlantic with the Conservatives and NDP picking up the lost seats. It will be interesting to see if Peter MacKay's resignation while affect the Conservatives' polling in June.
Quebec
NDP: 32.9%, 45 seats (+6.1 pp, 16)
LPC: 24.4%, 19 seats (-0.8 pp, -4)
CPC: 17.9%, 7 seats (-4.3 pp, -9)
BQ: 17.3%, 7 seats (-1.2 pp, -3)
GPC: 5.2%, 0 seats (0 pp, 0)
Others: 2.4%, 0 seats (0 pp, 0)
The NDP's biggest gains this month have come from Quebec. The party has now surged into a comfortable lead. The Conservatives had the greatest losses in this province. In early June, Gilles Duceppe announced that he would return to lead the Bloc Quebecois. Will the Bloc's numbers go back up? We'll have to wait to see.
Ontario
CPC: 36%, 62 seats (-1 pp, -4)
LPC: 32.4%, 45 seats (+ 0.1 pp, 1)
NDP: 21.9%, 14 seats (+1.8 pp, 3)
GPC: 7%, 0 seats (-0.4 pp, 0)
Others: 2.7%, 0 seats (-0.5 pp, 0)
There have not been any major changes in Ontario. The Conservatives have lost a few seats, while the Liberals and New Democrats have gained a couple. Ontario is the only province where the Liberals have gained a seat this month.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
CPC: 41%, 19 seats (+0.5 pp, 1)
LPC: 26.1%, 5 seats (-3.5 pp, -2)
NDP: 25.1%, 4 seats (+3.9 pp, 1)
GPC: 5.5%, 0 seats (-1.1 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (+ 0.2 pp, 0)
Manitoba and Saskatchewan are also pretty static at the moment. Only minor seat changes have taken place. The Conservatives still hold a comfortable lead.
Alberta
CPC: 45.5%, 27 seats (+2.6 pp, 1)
NDP: 26.4%, 5 seats (+2.4 pp, 0)
LPC: 17.8%, 2 seats (-3.7 pp, -1)
GPC: 5.9%, 0 seats (-0.9 pp, 0)
Others: 4.5%, 0 seats (-0.3 pp, 0)
Did the Alberta provincial election affect the federal landscape? No. In fact, the Conservatives have gone up the most in Alberta this month. The NDP has increased their popular vote, but have not increased their seat count in Alberta.
British Columbia
NDP: 29.6%, 16 seats (+5.4 pp, 8)
CPC: 28.1%, 13 seats (-3.3 pp, -6)
LPC: 26.5%, 11 seats (-1.2 pp, -2)
GPC: 13.5%, 2 seats (-0.8 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (-0.1 pp, 0)
British Columbia is a province where a lot has taken place this month. The NDP have risen by over 5 points and have gained 8 new seats. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have lost seats in this province.
The Territories
CPC: 2 seats
LPC: 0 seats
NDP: 1 seats
GPC: 0 seats
Others: 0 seats
Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make
the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I
cannot add any percentage figures either.
Canada
CPC: 139 seats (-11)
LPC: 100 seats (-16)
NDP: 90 seats (+30)
BQ: 7 seats (-3)
GPC: 2 seats (0)
Others: 0 seats (0)
The NDP have made huge gains this month increasing its popular vote in every region of the country. The Liberals have been the biggest losers, but the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois have lost several seats as well. If an election were held today, the most probable outcome would be a Conservative minority government with the Liberal Party as the Official Opposition.
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