The U.S. presidential polling averages have been updated for the month of May. The Republican field has become more stacked, with the addition of George Pataki, former New York governor, and Donald Trump, billionaire businessman. Marco Rubio and Scott Walker now lead the Republican candidates, but Jeb Bush and a host of others are close behind. Meanwhile, Lincoln Chafee, former governor of Rhode Island, has joined the Democratic field, while Elizabeth Warren has announced that she will not run for president.
Republican Nomination
Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red
for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains
unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.
1. Marco Rubio: 12.5% (+2, -0.3 pp)
2. Scott Walker: 12.4% (-1.6 pp)
3. Jeb Bush: 10.9% (-2, -3.6 pp)
4. Mike Huckabee: 9.7% (+2, +2.3 pp)
5. Ben Carson: 9.5% (+2, +3.4 pp)
6. Rand Paul: 8.6% (-1, -0.6 pp)
7. Ted Cruz: 7% (-3, -2.3 pp)
8. Chris Christie: 4.8% (-0.5 pp)
9. Donald Trump: 3.8%
10. Rick Perry: 2.7% (-1, +0.1 pp)
11. John Kasich: 2.1% (-1, +0.3 pp)
12. George Pataki: 1.8%
13. Carly Fiorina: 1.7% (+1, +0.4 pp)
14. Rick Santorum: 1.6% (-3)
15. Bobby Jindal: 0.9% (-3, -0.5 pp)
16. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-3, -0.5 pp)
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.1% (-2.2 pp)
Note: George Pataki and Donald Trump have been added to the list.
1. Rubio: Rubio has remained unchanged since last month, but due to the decline in support of Walker and Bush, the Florida senator has risen to the top.
2. Walker: Walker is virtually tied with Rubio now in first place. The different is only one-tenth of a percentage point. However, Walker has experienced a drop of almost two points since April.
3. Bush: The former Florida governor is no longer the leader of the pack. He has dropped by nearly 4 points since April and is 5.5 points below their peak of 16.4%. However, Bush is leading the "invisible primary". Among the candidates, he has received the most support and money from donors and super-PACs.
4. Huckabee: After declaring candidacy in May, Huckabee has jumped up over 2 points and is now in fourth. One poll had him in tied the lead with 10%.
5. Carson: The retired neurosurgeon has also made gains this month after announcing his run. He went up over 3 points to fifth place. One poll had him in tied the lead with 10%.
6. Paul: The son of Ron Paul has remained roughly the same as last month. One poll had him tied in the lead with 11%.
7. Cruz: The Texas senator has dropped 2.3 points this month and is now in seventh place. His post-announcement bump seems to have died down.
8. Christie: Chris Christie is continuing to drop and is now under 5%.
9. Trump: The businessman from New York plans to make his announcement next week. Currently he has almost 4% of the vote: most likely from name recognition.
10. Perry: Perry has remained about the same as last month.
11. Kasich: The Ohio governor's numbers are mostly unchanged. His numbers have to improve if we wants to participate in the Fox News debate during the summer (only the top 10 candidates are eligible). He is still considered a contender being the governor of the second-largest swing state and have a large amount of political experience.
12. Pataki: George Pataki has put his name in the hat and is currently polling under 2%.
13. Fiorina: The only female Republican candidate has now increased one rank to thirteenth place. She is considered as a likely vice-presidential nominee on the Republican ticket.
14. Santorum: Santorum's numbers have been unchanged since April.
15. Jindal: The Lousiana governor has fallen to second-last place.
16. Graham: The senator is polling under 1%. He may not even win the primaries in his home state of South Carolina.
Democratic Nomination
Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red
for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains
unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.
1. Hillary Clinton: 61.3% (+1.4 pp)
2. Joe Biden: 11.6% (+1, +0.2 pp)
3. Bernie Sanders: 7.9% (+1, +3.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.5% (+1, +0.2 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.4% (+1, +0.3 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.6%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 15.7% (+5.7 pp) (this is largely composed of former Elizabeth Warren supporters who still chose her in some polls)
Note: Lincoln Chafee been added to the list, while Elizabeth Warren has been removed.
Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.
Clinton: Clinton is still the clear front-runner with over 60% support.
Biden: After Warren's decision not to run, Biden is now in second place. However, he has polled poorly this month and may be overtaken by Sanders soon.
Sanders: Many of Warren's supporters seem to have flocked to Sanders who's average rose by 3.7 percentage points.
O'Malley: O'Malley maintains his lead over Webb. He announced that he would run on May 29, so this is not reflected in May's polls.
Webb: The former senator from Virginia is polling roughly the same as last month.
Chafee: The former senator and former governor of Rhode Island has entered the race, but he is polling just over 0.5%, making his winning the Democratic nomination a long-shot.
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