2015 IAAF World Championships Men's 100 Metres Sprint

Tomorrow, August 23, will be the date of the 100m semi-finals and finals of the 2015 IAAF World Championships. Most of this year's top sprinters qualified for the semis. Dasaolu and Bledman were eliminated in the heats. Others, such as Bailey-Cole, Richard Thompson, and Gemili missed out due to injuries. Some other sprinters including Ryan Bailey, Blake, and Carter were eliminated in their respective national championships. But despite some athletes missing, the start lists for the semi-finals and the finals will still be very good featuring stars like Gatlin, Bolt, Powell, Gay, Bromell, De Grasse, Vicaut, Rodgers, Ashmeade, Ogunode, Lemaitre, and Ujah, just to name a few. Bolt is facing his toughest competition yet and the 100m world record may be in jeopardy. It is even possible that for the first time in history, all eight sprinters will run sub-10 seconds (7 out of 8 sprinters were sub-10 in the finals of London 2012).

Here are the results that my model predicts:

Semi-Finals

Heat 1

1. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08) Q
2. De Grasse (CAN): 9.95s (9.85-10.05) Q
3. Bolt (JAM): 9.96s (9.81-10.11)
4. Bruintjies (RSA): 9.97s (9.87-10.07)   
5. Su (CHN): 9.99s (9.89-10.09)       
6. Harvey (TUR): 10.03s (9.93-10.13)   
7. Reus (GER): 10.07s (9.97-10.17)
8. Lemaitre (FRA): 10.13s (9.94-10.32)

Heat 2

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00) Q
2. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.17) Q   
3. Rodgers (USA): 9.92s (9.79-10.05) q
4. Ogunode (QAT): 9.92s (9.76-10.08)
5. Ujah (GBR): 9.94s (9.68-10.20)
6. Simbine (RSA): 9.97s (9.71-10.23)
7. Cadogan (BAR): 10.06s (9.96-10.16)       
8. Brown (CAN): 10.08s (9.98-10.18)

Heat 3

1. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02) Q   
2. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10) Q
3. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14) q
4. Gittens (BAR): 10.02s (9.92-10.12)
5. Meite (CIV): 10.05s (9.95-10.15)
6. Kilty (GBR): 10.05s (9.95-10.15)
7. Taftina (IRI): 10.10s (10.00-10.20)
8. Martina (NED): 10.18s (9.88-10.48)

Final

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08)
3. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.17)
4. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
5. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
6. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
7. Rodgers (USA): 9.92s (9.79-10.05
8. De Grasse (CAN): 9.95s (9.85-10.05)

Gold: Gatlin (USA)
Silver: Bromell (USA)
Bronze: Ashmeade (JAM)

World Champion: Justin Gatlin (USA)

This quadratic regression model shows that Gatlin would win it all. Here is what some other models say:

Moving average (2 period): 1) Gatlin, 2) Powell, 3) Gay

Linear: 1) Gay 2) Gatlin 3) Vicaut

Exponential: 1) Gay 2) Gatlin 3) Vicaut

However, despite these models, I still predict that Usain Bolt will win. Here's why.

 

Bolt 2008 pre-Olympics: 9.72s

Bolt 2008 Olympics: 9.69s

Difference: 0.03s

Bolt 2009 pre-World Championships: 9.79s

Bolt 2009 World Championships: 9.58s

Difference: 0.21s

Bolt 2012 pre-Olympics: 9.76s

Bolt 2012 Olympics: 9.63s

Difference: 0.13s

Bolt 2013 pre-World Championships: 9.85s

Bolt 2013 World Championships: 9.77s

Difference: 0.08s

Average Difference: 0.1125s

Now applying this difference,

Bolt 2015 pre-World Championships: 9.87s

Bolt 2015 World Championships: 9.76s (9.66-9.84)

Meanwhile for Gatlin,

Gatlin 2012 pre-Olympics: 9.80s

Gatlin 2012 Olympics: 9.79s

Difference: 0.01s

Gatlin 2013 pre-World Championships: 9.85s

Gatlin 2013 World Championships: 9.89s

Difference: 0.04s

Average Difference: 0.025s

Now applying this difference,

Gatlin 2015 pre-World Championships: 9.74

Gatlin 2015 World Championships: 9.72s (9.70-9.73)

Note that 2010 and 2014 were gap years (no major competitions other than Diamond League Meets) and Bolt false started and was disqualified in 2011, while Gatlin was still on the road to recovery following his drug bans. Hence, these years have been omitted. 

This shows that it will be very hard for Gatlin to run sub 9.7, but for Bolt it is possible. Gatlin has been very consistent, constantly running times in the 9.70's, but he has so far failed to run in the 9.6's. Meanwhile, for the defending champion, this is still possible. 

Another important factor to consider are basic times: times adjusted for wind speeds and elevation. Gatlin's best basic time of 2015 is 9.78s while for Bolt it is 9.80: a difference of only 0.02 seconds.

Other challengers include Bromell, the 20 year-old sprinting sensation. However, he is still inexperienced and young. Gay and Powell can clock speedy times, but often under perform in major competitions. If Bolt were still injured, I'd predict that Gatlin would win. But now I'm saying Bolt first, then Gatlin, and Powell with the bronze. But either way, this race will be a good one.

Presidential Primaries: July Polling Averages

Trump Steals GOP Field; Sanders Continues to Rise

19 polls were released this month for Republicans and Democrats were polled 16 times, making this a very busy month for pollsters. The biggest news this month is "The Donald". Taking advantage of the angry voters among the Republicans, he has captured media headlines and leads Jeb Bush by 12 points with almost 1 in 4 Republican voters supporting him. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders, another polarizing figure, is now polling at 20% and has reduced Hillary Clinton's lead to (a still impressive) 36 percentage points. The only candidate who has not yet announced his candidacy is Vice-President Joe Biden. Note that former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore has declared that he will run on July 30, but no poll this month has put him higher than 0%, so he has not been included for July's projection (but probably will be for August).

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Donald Trump: 24.4% (+5, +15.8 pp)

2. Jeb Bush: 12.8% (-1, -1.8 pp)

3. Scott Walker: 12.5% (-1, +2.3 pp)

4. Ben Carson: 6.5% (-2.9 pp)

5. Ted Cruz: 6.3% (+3, +1.5 pp)

6. Mike Huckabee: 5.9% (+1, -1.1 pp)

7. Marco Rubio: 5.1% (-4, -4.3 pp)

8. Rand Paul: 4.9% (-3, -4.0 pp)

9. John Kasich: 3.9% (+4, +1.9 pp)

10. Chris Christie: 3.1% (+1, -0.1 pp)

11. Rick Perry: 2.8% (-1, -0.5 pp)

12. Rich Santorum: 1.6% (-0.6 pp)

13. Carly Fiorina: 1.5% (-4, -2.0 pp)

14. Bobby Jindal: 1.2% (+1, -0.2 pp)

15. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-1, -0.6 pp)

16. George Pataki: 0.6% (+0.4 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.0% (-3.8 pp)

Spread: Trump +11.6

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Trump: The media mogul and businessman's jump has been phenomenal. Donald Trump is now the clear leader of the GOP field. However, considering all his controversies, we cannot be sure how long he can keep these numbers.

2. Bush: Jeb Bush has been trumped: literally. He is now in second place, more than ten percentage points behind the new frontrunner, Donald Trump.

3. Walker: Wisconsin's governor's polling average went up following his announcement this month, but this month hasn't been enough to exceed Bush.

4. Carson: Dr. Carson's support has gone down by 3 points, but he has managed to remain in fourth place.

5. Cruz: Cruz is one of the only candidates who has not publicly attacked or criticized Trump. Perhaps his rise upwards can be attributed to some of Trump's supporters.

6. Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor has gone down by 1 point, but has still risen one spot to sixth.

7. Rubio: The junior senator from Florida has experienced the biggest drop this month. He has fell by over 4 points and has only his core base left. He has fallen from third place to the seventh spot.

8. Paul: Paul has also experienced a large drop, losing 4 points. Until July, the Kentucky senator was very consistent polling at around 9%. Falling down to 5% may be attributed to some of his supporters flocking over to Trump's side.

9. Kasich: The governor of Ohio has jumped from 13th place to 9th after declaring candidacy.

10. Christie: After five consecutive months of decline, Christie's polling numbers are finally stagnating. His hard-core supporters make up 3% of Republican voters.

11. Perry: Rick Perry polled about the same as last month. Unlike Kasich, he has failed to move up significantly in ranking.

12. Santorum: Santorum's polling numbers this month are identical to his April and May numbers.

13. Fiorina: Fiorina shed 2 points during July and has fallen from 9th place to 13th, switching places with John Kasich.

14. Jindal: The Lousiana governor is no longer next-to-last, but he has failed to make any improvement this month.

15. Graham: The South Carolina senator, Strom Thurmond's successor, has dropped half a percentage point, back to his May polling average.

16. Pataki: Pataki is still polling under 1%.

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: After so many men and women have entered the race, it is not a surprise that the voters who would choose someone else or are still undecided has fallen by almost four percentage points.

The four tiers have shifted. The single front-runner is now Donald Trump. Trump has a 12 point lead over Bush. This is bigger than Romney's 10 point lead over Bush back in January when he was still considered to be a possible candidate (Romney: 20%, Bush: 10.5%). Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are currently Trump's only challengers. The contenders now range from Carson to Perry and the long-shots are Santorum and beyond.

Just for fun, I extrapolated Trump's, Bush's, and Walker's polling averages to July 2016, the month of the Republican National Convention (RNC) and adjusted to make up for the remainder. Here are the results:

1. Trump: 61%
2. Walker: 27%
3. Bush: 13%

Donald Trump would easily win the nomination and his runner-mate may be Walker or Bush. However, I hypothesize that a Trump-Cruz ticket would be the most likely considering the fact that Ted Cruz is the only one in the Republican race who does not dislike Donald Trump.

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 55.7% (-2.2 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 19.6% (+5.3 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.3 pp)

5. Jim Webb: 2.3% (+1, +0.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.4% (-1, -0.5 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.8% (+0.4 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.5% (-2.4 pp)

Spread: Clinton +36.1

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Clinton: The front-runner has lost two points this moth and five since May. Her lead has been reduced to 36 percentage points, but she still remains the undisputed front-runner.

Sanders: July was another incredible month of growth for Sanders who is now just below 20%.

Biden: Biden is the only candidate who has not announced that he will run yet. He has to make a decision soon, since his numbers are beginning to evaporate. 

Webb: Webb has finally broken the 2% ceiling and is ahead of O'Malley for the first time since they were tied in March (Webb lead in February).

O'Malley: Unlike Webb, O'Malley's numbers have failed to grow and he has dropped from fourth to fifth place.

Chafee: Chafee's polling average is currently just below 1%.

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: Just like among Republicans, the number of undecided Democratic voters has decreased.

The Democrats also have four main groups. Clinton is the front-runner and her sole challenger is Sanders. Biden remains a contender, while Webb, O'Malley, and Chafee are all long-shots.

I simulated the Democratic National Convention (DNC), just like I did for the RNC:

1. Clinton: 61%

2. Sanders: 39%

Clinton would win handily and we might end up with a Clinton-Sanders ticket.

To wrap up this piece, an interesting poll was conducted by Quinnipiac University for a possible presidential election between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, two candidates on the opposite ends of the political spectrum. The winner? Sanders 44% to 39% for Trump. 

Here is the link to the article: http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/politics/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-poll/

Canada Federal Election: July Polling Averages

Conservatives Make a Comeback

Thirteen polls were released in the month of July by eight polling firms. 7 of these 13 polls had the NDP in the lead, 2 had the Conservatives up front, and 4 polls showed the two parties head-to-head. The Tories now lead in the aggregate. A big reason for this polling jump can be attributed to the poll conducted by Mainstreet Research that put the Conservatives in majority territory with 38%, the Dippers at 27%, and the Liberals at 25%. An impressive 5147 Canadians were surveyed making this poll have one of the largest sample sizes since 2011. But is it an outlier? Possibly, but considering the fact that hundreds of polls have been released since the last federal election, it is on the high end of the spectrum.

The polling averages up to July 31 can be seen below:

The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month. The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken place. 

 1. Conservatives: 32.4% (+4.0 pp). The Conservatives made the biggest leap this month, rising by 4 percentage points. The size of this jump is nearly as big as the one made by the NDP last month.

2. NDP: 31.7% (-1.1 pp). The Dippers have lost some of their momentum, but still remain only 0.7 percentage points behind the Tories.

3. Liberals: 25.5% (-1.1 pp). The Liberals continued to drop in July. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals must come up with a new strategy to halt this decline and prevent the election from becoming a two-way race between the Conservatives and New Democrats.

4. Green Party: 5.3% (+0.3 pp). The Greens have managed to hold steady this month, but have overcome the Bloc Quebecois both in seats and popular vote. 

5. Bloc Quebecois: 4.4% (-1.3 pp). The post-leadership bump that took place after Gilles Duceppe became leader of the Bloc appears to have died off and the Bloquistes are back to their original level of 4%.

6. Others: 0.7% (-0.8 pp): Other parties (including Strength in Democracy) and independents currently have less than one percent of the vote. 

Regional Model

Atlantic

LPC: 37.3%, 17 seats (+4.5 pp, 4)

NDP: 30.5 %, 9 seats (+1.9 pp, 1)

CPC: 26.8%, 6 seats (-4.0 pp, -5)
GPC: 4.9%, 0 seats (-0.4 pp, 0)
Others: 0.5%, 0 seats (-2.1 pp pp, 0)

In June, the Atlantic provinces appeared like a three-way race, but now the Liberals are beginning to move further away from the pack, while the Conservatives are losing seats.

Quebec

NDP: 36.3%, 52 seats (+2.2 pp, 5)
LPC: 21.8%, 11 seats (-0.2 pp, -2)

CPC: 19.7%, 8 seats (+3.0 pp, 2)

BQ: 18.4%, 7 seats (-3.5 pp, -5)

GPC: 2.7%, 0 seats (-2.5 pp, 0)
Others: 1.2%, 0 seats (-1.2 pp, 0)

The NDP has led in every poll in Quebec this month. The Bloc has fallen back to fourth place, losing several seats. The Conservatives have managed to make some inroads in the province are now ahead of the Bloquistes.

Ontario

CPC: 37.3%, 65 seats (+5.7  pp, 23)

LPC: 28.9%, 30 seats (-1.0 pp, -6)

NDP: 27.7%, 26 seats (4.1 pp, -17)

GPC: 5.3%, 0 seats (+0.6  pp, 0)
Others: 0.7%, 0 seats (-1.4 pp, 0)

After losing 20 seats in Ontario last month, the Conservatives gained 23 this month, netting 3 seats since May. The Tories now have a clear lead in this key battleground province, while the New Democrats (especially) and the Liberals suffered heavy losses in July.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

CPC: 43.9%, 20 seats (+4.4 pp, 3)

NDP: 27.3%, 5 seats (-1.0 pp, -1)

LPC: 23.7%, 3 seats (-1.7 pp, -2)
GPC: 4.8%, 0 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)
Others: 0.3%, 0 seats (-2.0 pp, 0)

The Conservatives maintain a large lead in the Prairies.

Note: Most pollsters combine Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but EKOS and the Angus Reid Forum poll them separately. If this is the case, the raw average of the Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers (including sample size) are calculated, since the two provinces have a similar population and the same amount of seats in the House of Commons. 

Alberta

CPC: 49.8%, 29 seats (+2.3 pp, 3)
NDP: 25.9%, 4 seats (-3.1 pp, -3)
LPC: 17.6%, 1 seats (+0.2 pp, 0)
GPC: 5.4%, 0 seats (+1.6 pp, 0)
Others: 1.3%, 0 seats (-1.0 pp, 0)

Other than Conservative gains and New Democrat losses, not much has happened in Alberta.

British Columbia

NDP: 40.4%, 28 seats (+2.0 pp, 1)
CPC: 28.9%, 10 seats (+3.1 pp, 2)
LPC: 21.3%, 4 seats (-2.0 pp, -2)
GPC: 8.7%, 0 seats (-2.0 pp, -1)
Others: 0.7%, 0 seats (-1.1 pp, 0)

The Conservatives made the biggest gain in B.C. in July, but still remain over 10 points behind the NDP. The Green Party has lost their only seat.

The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
LPC:  0 seats
NDP:  1 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I cannot add any percentage figures either. Some models combine the North with Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but this can be inaccurate, since there are countless differences between the lifestyle in the Prairies and the way of life of the people of Canada's northern regions.

Canada

 

CPC:  140 seats (+27)

NDP:  125 seats (-13)

LPC:  66 seats (-8)

BQ: 7 seats (-5)
GPC:  0 seats (-1)
Others: 0 seats (0)

The Tories have picked up nearly thirty seats while the New Democrats lost a baker's dozen. The Liberals continue to lose seats, while the Bloc has fallen back to May levels in seat count. The Greens would have no seat in the House of Commons if any election were held today. 

The regional model gives a stronger minority for the Conservatives than the national model. This is largely due to regional trends, especially prevalent in Quebec and British Columbia. The Bloc Quebecois managed to pick up several seats in Quebec since almost one in five Quebecers will vote for them, while they have no candidates in any other province or territory. Meanwhile the Greens capture around 5% of the vote in each province, but except in the case of B.C. (occasionally), their support does not exceed 10% putting them out of the range of getting any seats.