19 polls were released this month for Republicans and Democrats were polled 16 times, making this a very busy month for pollsters. The biggest news this month is "The Donald". Taking advantage of the angry voters among the Republicans, he has captured media headlines and leads Jeb Bush by 12 points with almost 1 in 4 Republican voters supporting him. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders, another polarizing figure, is now polling at 20% and has reduced Hillary Clinton's lead to (a still impressive) 36 percentage points. The only candidate who has not yet announced his candidacy is Vice-President Joe Biden. Note that former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore has declared that he will run on July 30, but no poll this month has put him higher than 0%, so he has not been included for July's projection (but probably will be for August).
Republican Nomination
Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red
for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains
unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.
1. Donald Trump: 24.4% (+5, +15.8 pp)
2. Jeb Bush: 12.8% (-1, -1.8 pp)
3. Scott Walker: 12.5% (-1, +2.3 pp)
4. Ben Carson: 6.5% (-2.9 pp)
5. Ted Cruz: 6.3% (+3, +1.5 pp)
6. Mike Huckabee: 5.9% (+1, -1.1 pp)
7. Marco Rubio: 5.1% (-4, -4.3 pp)
8. Rand Paul: 4.9% (-3, -4.0 pp)
9. John Kasich: 3.9% (+4, +1.9 pp)
10. Chris Christie: 3.1% (+1, -0.1 pp)
11. Rick Perry: 2.8% (-1, -0.5 pp)
12. Rich Santorum: 1.6% (-0.6 pp)
13. Carly Fiorina: 1.5% (-4, -2.0 pp)
14. Bobby Jindal: 1.2% (+1, -0.2 pp)
15. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-1, -0.6 pp)
16. George Pataki: 0.6% (+0.4 pp)
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.0% (-3.8 pp)
Spread: Trump +11.6
Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each
month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so
on.
1. Trump: The media mogul and businessman's jump has been phenomenal. Donald Trump is now the clear leader of the GOP field. However, considering all his controversies, we cannot be sure how long he can keep these numbers.
2. Bush: Jeb Bush has been trumped: literally. He is now in second place, more than ten percentage points behind the new frontrunner, Donald Trump.
3. Walker: Wisconsin's governor's polling average went up following his announcement this month, but this month hasn't been enough to exceed Bush.
4. Carson: Dr. Carson's support has gone down by 3 points, but he has managed to remain in fourth place.
5. Cruz: Cruz is one of the only candidates who has not publicly attacked or criticized Trump. Perhaps his rise upwards can be attributed to some of Trump's supporters.
6. Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor has gone down by 1 point, but has still risen one spot to sixth.
7. Rubio: The junior senator from Florida has experienced the biggest drop this month. He has fell by over 4 points and has only his core base left. He has fallen from third place to the seventh spot.
8. Paul: Paul has also experienced a large drop, losing 4 points. Until July, the Kentucky senator was very consistent polling at around 9%. Falling down to 5% may be attributed to some of his supporters flocking over to Trump's side.
9. Kasich: The governor of Ohio has jumped from 13th place to 9th after declaring candidacy.
10. Christie: After five consecutive months of decline, Christie's polling numbers are finally stagnating. His hard-core supporters make up 3% of Republican voters.
11. Perry: Rick Perry polled about the same as last month. Unlike Kasich, he has failed to move up significantly in ranking.
12. Santorum: Santorum's polling numbers this month are identical to his April and May numbers.
13. Fiorina: Fiorina shed 2 points during July and has fallen from 9th place to 13th, switching places with John Kasich.
14. Jindal: The Lousiana governor is no longer next-to-last, but he has failed to make any improvement this month.
15. Graham: The South Carolina senator, Strom Thurmond's successor, has dropped half a percentage point, back to his May polling average.
16. Pataki: Pataki is still polling under 1%.
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: After so many men and women have entered the race, it is not a surprise that the voters who would choose someone else or are still undecided has fallen by almost four percentage points.
The four tiers have shifted. The single front-runner is now Donald Trump. Trump has a 12 point lead over Bush. This is bigger than Romney's 10 point lead over Bush back in January when he was still considered to be a possible candidate (Romney: 20%, Bush: 10.5%). Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are currently Trump's only challengers. The contenders now range from Carson to Perry and the long-shots are Santorum and beyond.
Just for fun, I extrapolated Trump's, Bush's, and Walker's polling averages to July 2016, the month of the Republican National Convention (RNC) and adjusted to make up for the remainder. Here are the results:
1. Trump: 61%
2. Walker: 27%
3. Bush: 13%
1. Hillary Clinton: 55.7% (-2.2 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 19.6% (+5.3 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.3 pp)
11. Perry: Rick Perry polled about the same as last month. Unlike Kasich, he has failed to move up significantly in ranking.
12. Santorum: Santorum's polling numbers this month are identical to his April and May numbers.
13. Fiorina: Fiorina shed 2 points during July and has fallen from 9th place to 13th, switching places with John Kasich.
14. Jindal: The Lousiana governor is no longer next-to-last, but he has failed to make any improvement this month.
15. Graham: The South Carolina senator, Strom Thurmond's successor, has dropped half a percentage point, back to his May polling average.
16. Pataki: Pataki is still polling under 1%.
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: After so many men and women have entered the race, it is not a surprise that the voters who would choose someone else or are still undecided has fallen by almost four percentage points.
The four tiers have shifted. The single front-runner is now Donald Trump. Trump has a 12 point lead over Bush. This is bigger than Romney's 10 point lead over Bush back in January when he was still considered to be a possible candidate (Romney: 20%, Bush: 10.5%). Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are currently Trump's only challengers. The contenders now range from Carson to Perry and the long-shots are Santorum and beyond.
Just for fun, I extrapolated Trump's, Bush's, and Walker's polling averages to July 2016, the month of the Republican National Convention (RNC) and adjusted to make up for the remainder. Here are the results:
1. Trump: 61%
2. Walker: 27%
3. Bush: 13%
Donald Trump would easily win the nomination and his runner-mate may be Walker or Bush. However, I hypothesize that a Trump-Cruz ticket would be the most likely considering the fact that Ted Cruz is the only one in the Republican race who does not dislike Donald Trump.
Democratic Nomination
Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red
for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains
unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.
1. Hillary Clinton: 55.7% (-2.2 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 19.6% (+5.3 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.3 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 2.3% (+1, +0.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.4% (-1, -0.5 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.8% (+0.4 pp)
Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: Just like among Republicans, the number of undecided Democratic voters has decreased.
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.4% (-1, -0.5 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.8% (+0.4 pp)
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.5% (-2.4 pp)
Spread: Clinton +36.1
Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.
Clinton: The front-runner has lost two points this moth and five since May. Her lead has been reduced to 36 percentage points, but she still remains the undisputed front-runner.
Sanders: July was another incredible month of growth for Sanders who is now just below 20%.
Biden: Biden is the only candidate who has not announced that he will run yet. He has to make a decision soon, since his numbers are beginning to evaporate.
Webb: Webb has finally broken the 2% ceiling and is ahead of O'Malley for the first time since they were tied in March (Webb lead in February).
O'Malley: Unlike Webb, O'Malley's numbers have failed to grow and he has dropped from fourth to fifth place.
Chafee: Chafee's polling average is currently just below 1%.
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: Just like among Republicans, the number of undecided Democratic voters has decreased.
The Democrats also have four main groups. Clinton is the front-runner and her sole challenger is Sanders. Biden remains a contender, while Webb, O'Malley, and Chafee are all long-shots.
I simulated the Democratic National Convention (DNC), just like I did for the RNC:
1. Clinton: 61%
2. Sanders: 39%
Clinton would win handily and we might end up with a Clinton-Sanders ticket.
To wrap up this piece, an interesting poll was conducted by Quinnipiac University for a possible presidential election between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, two candidates on the opposite ends of the political spectrum. The winner? Sanders 44% to 39% for Trump.
Here is the link to the article: http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/politics/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-poll/
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