Thirteen polls were released in the month of July by eight polling firms. 7 of these 13 polls had the NDP in the lead, 2 had the Conservatives up front, and 4 polls showed the two parties head-to-head. The Tories now lead in the aggregate. A big reason for this polling jump can be attributed to the poll conducted by Mainstreet Research that put the Conservatives in majority territory with 38%, the Dippers at 27%, and the Liberals at 25%. An impressive 5147 Canadians were surveyed making this poll have one of the largest sample sizes since 2011. But is it an outlier? Possibly, but considering the fact that hundreds of polls have been released since the last federal election, it is on the high end of the spectrum.
The polling averages up to July 31 can be seen below:
The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month.
The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank
and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red
means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken
place.
1. Conservatives: 32.4% (+4.0 pp). The Conservatives made the biggest leap this month, rising by 4 percentage points. The size of this jump is nearly as big as the one made by the NDP last month.
2. NDP: 31.7% (-1.1 pp). The Dippers have lost some of their momentum, but still remain only 0.7 percentage points behind the Tories.
3. Liberals: 25.5% (-1.1 pp).
The Liberals continued to drop in July. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals must come up with a new strategy to halt this decline and prevent the election from becoming a two-way race between the Conservatives and New Democrats.
4. Green Party: 5.3% (+0.3 pp). The Greens have managed to hold steady this month, but have overcome the Bloc Quebecois both in seats and popular vote.
5. Bloc Quebecois: 4.4% (-1.3 pp). The post-leadership bump that took place after Gilles Duceppe became leader of the Bloc appears to have died off and the Bloquistes are back to their original level of 4%.
6. Others: 0.7% (-0.8 pp): Other parties (including Strength in Democracy) and independents currently have less than one percent of the vote.
Atlantic
LPC: 37.3%, 17 seats (+4.5 pp, 4)
NDP: 30.5 %, 9 seats (+1.9 pp, 1)LPC: 37.3%, 17 seats (+4.5 pp, 4)
CPC: 26.8%, 6 seats (-4.0 pp, -5)
GPC: 4.9%, 0 seats (-0.4 pp, 0)
Others: 0.5%, 0 seats (-2.1 pp pp, 0)
GPC: 4.9%, 0 seats (-0.4 pp, 0)
Others: 0.5%, 0 seats (-2.1 pp pp, 0)
In June, the Atlantic provinces appeared like a three-way race, but now the Liberals are beginning to move further away from the pack, while the Conservatives are losing seats.
Quebec
NDP: 36.3%, 52 seats (+2.2 pp, 5)
LPC: 21.8%, 11 seats (-0.2 pp, -2)
CPC: 19.7%, 8 seats (+3.0 pp, 2)
BQ: 18.4%, 7 seats (-3.5 pp, -5)
GPC: 2.7%, 0 seats (-2.5 pp, 0)Others: 1.2%, 0 seats (-1.2 pp, 0)
The NDP has led in every poll in Quebec this month. The Bloc has fallen back to fourth place, losing several seats. The Conservatives have managed to make some inroads in the province are now ahead of the Bloquistes.
Ontario
CPC: 37.3%, 65 seats (+5.7 pp, 23)
LPC: 28.9%, 30 seats (-1.0 pp, -6)
NDP: 27.7%, 26 seats (4.1 pp, -17)
GPC: 5.3%, 0 seats (+0.6 pp, 0)Others: 0.7%, 0 seats (-1.4 pp, 0)
After losing 20 seats in Ontario last month, the Conservatives gained 23 this month, netting 3 seats since May. The Tories now have a clear lead in this key battleground province, while the New Democrats (especially) and the Liberals suffered heavy losses in July.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
CPC: 43.9%, 20 seats (+4.4 pp, 3)
NDP: 27.3%, 5 seats (-1.0 pp, -1)
LPC: 23.7%, 3 seats (-1.7 pp, -2)GPC: 4.8%, 0 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)
Others: 0.3%, 0 seats (-2.0 pp, 0)
The Conservatives maintain a large lead in the Prairies.
Note: Most pollsters combine Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but EKOS and
the Angus Reid Forum poll them separately. If this is the case, the raw
average of the Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers (including sample size)
are calculated, since the two provinces have a similar population and
the same amount of seats in the House of Commons.
CPC: 49.8%, 29 seats (+2.3 pp, 3)
NDP: 25.9%, 4 seats (-3.1 pp, -3)
LPC: 17.6%, 1 seats (+0.2 pp, 0)
GPC: 5.4%, 0 seats (+1.6 pp, 0)
Others: 1.3%, 0 seats (-1.0 pp, 0)
Other than Conservative gains and New Democrat losses, not much has happened in Alberta.
British Columbia
NDP: 40.4%, 28 seats (+2.0 pp, 1)
CPC: 28.9%, 10 seats (+3.1 pp, 2)
LPC: 21.3%, 4 seats (-2.0 pp, -2)
GPC: 8.7%, 0 seats (-2.0 pp, -1)
Others: 0.7%, 0 seats (-1.1 pp, 0)
The Conservatives made the biggest gain in B.C. in July, but still remain over 10 points behind the NDP. The Green Party has lost their only seat.
The Territories
CPC: 2 seats
LPC: 0 seats
NDP: 1 seats
GPC: 0 seats
Others: 0 seats
Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make
the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I
cannot add any percentage figures either. Some models combine the North
with Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but this can be inaccurate, since there
are countless differences between the lifestyle in the Prairies and the
way of life of the people of Canada's northern regions.
Canada
CPC: 140 seats (+27)
NDP: 125 seats (-13)
LPC: 66 seats (-8)
BQ: 7 seats (-5) GPC: 0 seats (-1)
Others: 0 seats (0)
The Tories have picked up nearly thirty seats while the New Democrats lost a baker's dozen. The Liberals continue to lose seats, while the Bloc has fallen back to May levels in seat count. The Greens would have no seat in the House of Commons if any election were held today.
The regional model gives a stronger minority for the Conservatives than the national model. This is largely due to regional trends, especially prevalent in Quebec and British Columbia. The Bloc Quebecois managed to pick up several seats in Quebec since almost one in five Quebecers will vote for them, while they have no candidates in any other province or territory. Meanwhile the Greens capture around 5% of the vote in each province, but except in the case of B.C. (occasionally), their support does not exceed 10% putting them out of the range of getting any seats.
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