Canada Federal Election 2015 Final Projection

Liberals Surge to the Lead

The Liberals are projected to win a strong minority, but the Conservatives still have a shot.

Note: 10 means election day.

1. LPC: 37.5%

2. CPC: 31.2%

3. NDP: 21.2%

4. BQ: 4.8%

5. GPC: 4.5%

6. Others: 0.8%

Regional Model

Atlantic: Clear Liberal Lead

1. LPC: 49.3%, 22-27 seats
2. NDP: 22.9%, 3-5 seats
3. CPC: 22.4%, 2-5 seats
4. GPC: 3.7%, 0 seats
5. Others:  1.6%, 0 seats

Quebec: Close Race between Liberals and New Democrats

1. LPC: 30.1%, 29-34 seats
2. NDP: 27%, 23-25 seats
3. BQ: 20%, 12 seats
4. CPC: 19.5%, 10-13 seats
5. GPC: 2.6%, 0-1 seats
6. Others:  0.8%, 0 seats

Ontario: Liberals Lead the Tories

1. LPC: 44.6%, 70-81 seats
2. CPC: 33.6%, 35-40 seats
3. NDP: 17.7%, 5-11 seats
4. GPC: 3.6%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.6%, 0 seats

Manitoba and Saskatchewan: Conservatives Maintain Lead over Liberals

1. CPC: 41.5%, 15-17 seats
2. LPC: 32.9%, 9 seats
3. NDP 20.9%, 2-4 seats
4. GPC: 4.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.6%, 0 seats
 
Alberta: Strong Conservative Lead

1. CPC: 51.9%, 25-29 seats
2. LPC: 26.5%, 4-6 seats
3. NDP: 16.6%, 1-3 seats
4. GPC: 4.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.9%, 0 seats

British Columbia: Liberal or Conservative Toss-up with NDP in Strong Third

1. LPC: 31.5%, 15-16 seats
2. CPC: 31.4%, 15-16 seats
3. NDP: 26.1%, 9-10 seats
4. GPC: 10.5%, 1-2 seats
5. Others:  0.4%, 0 seats
 
The Territories: Incumbents Keep Their Ridings

CPC:  2 seats
NDP:  1 seats
LPC:  0 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Canada: Strong Liberal Minority with the Possibility of a Slim Majority

1. LPC: 151-171 seats
2. CPC: 110-114 seats
3. NDP: 46-57 seats
4. BQ: 10-13 seats
5. GPC: 1-3 seats
6. Others: 0 seats

Extreme Ranges

LPC: 22%-43.1%; 38-292 seats

CPC: 26.3-38.8%; 66-213 seats

NDP: 14.9-35.2%; 0-159 seats

BQ: 0-9.6%; 0-12 seats

GPC: 0-10%; 0-12 seats

Others: 0-5.5%; 0-4 seats

Analysis

This election will be very close. Anything can happen. While the polls show the Liberals with a healthy lead, the question remains whether or not the Liberal supporters will actually show up to vote. Conservatives tend to have the most committed voters and are good at getting out the vote. Combining the fact that incumbents and right-leaning parties tend to get underrepresented by polls adds another factor this race that cannot be ignored. The Liberals may win a minority or majority, but a Conservative minority or even a second majority is not out of the equation yet. The New Democrats will likely become relegated to third place status, but still have a shot at forming a minority government. The Bloc Quebecois will rebound slightly. Both the Bloc and the Green Party have a shot at gaining official party status, but it is possible that the Bloquistes and Greens may disappear from the House of Commons altogether. Independents and other parties (including the Quebec-based Strength in Democracy) may gain as many as four seats this election. 

Presidential Primaries: September Polling Averages

Trump's Lead Shrinks As Carson, Fiorina, Rubio Rise; Gap Between Clinton and Sanders Narrows

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 26.7%
2. Carson: 15.9%
3. Rubio: 9.2%
4. Fiorina: 9.1%
5. Bush: 9%
6. Cruz: 6.1%
7. Christie: 3.7%
8. Paul: 3.5%
9. Kasich: 3.3%
10. Huckabee: 2.7%
11. Santorum: 1%
12. Jindal: 0.9%
13. Gilmore: 0.6%
14. Pataki: 0.2%
15. Graham: 0.2%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 7.9% 
Spread: Trump +10.8

Subtractions: Rick Perry (dropped out of race), Scott Walker (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump 54%; Carson: 14%; Fiorina: 13%; Rubio: 11%; Cruz: 5%; Bush: 3%; Others: 0%

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 43.3%
2. Sanders: 26.3%
3. Biden: 19%
4. O'Malley: 0.9%
5. Webb: 0.6%
6. Chafee: 0.3%
7. Lessig: 0%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.6%

Spread: Clinton +17

Addition: Lawrence Lessig (Harvard law professor, MA)

DNC: Sanders: 49%; Clinton: 34%; Biden: 17%; Others: 0%

 

Canada Federal Election: September Polling Averages

NDP Campaign Collapsing, While Conservatives and Liberals Make Gains

1. CPC: 32.7%
2. LPC: 29.7%
3. NDP: 27%
4. GPC: 5%
5. BQ: 4.9%
6. Others: 0.7%

Regional Model

Atlantic

1. LPC: 42.8%, 22 seats
2. NDP: 27.2%, 6 seats
3. CPC: 23.7%, 4 seats
4. GPC: 5.6%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.7%, 0 seats

Quebec

1. NDP: 31.3%, 40 seats
2. LPC: 22.2%, 14 seats
3. BQ: 21.3%, 12 seats
4. CPC: 20.9%, 12 seats
5. GPC: 3.4%, 0 seats
6. Others:  0.9%, 0 seats

Ontario

1. CPC: 35.8%, 56 seats
2. LPC: 34%, 48 seats
3. NDP: 24.1%, 17 seats
4. GPC: 5.4%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.8%, 0 seats

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

1. CPC: 40.3%, 18 seats
2. LPC: 27.3%, 6 seats
3. NDP 25.4%, 4 seats
4. GPC: 6.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.8%, 0 seats
 
Alberta

1. CPC: 53.3%, 30 seats
2. LPC: 22.2%, 2 seats
3. NDP: 19.4%, 2 seats
4. GPC: 3.3%, 0 seats
5. Others:  1.8%, 0 seats

British Columbia

1. NDP: 32.6%, 17 seats
2. CPC: 31.4%, 16 seats
3. LPC: 25.6%, 8 seats
4. GPC: 10.1%, 1 seats
5. Others:  0.3%, 0 seats
 
The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
NDP:  1 seats
LPC:  0 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Canada

1. CPC: 138 seats
2. LPC: 100 seats
3. NDP: 87 seats
4. BQ: 12 seats
5. GPC: 1 seats
6. Others: 0 seats