1. Trump: 36.7%
2. Cruz: 16.7%
3. Rubio: 11.2%
4. Carson: 9.6%
5. Bush: 5.3%
6. Christie: 3.6%
7. Paul: 3.2%
8. Huckabee: 2.1%
9. Fiorina: 2.1%
10. Kasich: 1.9%
11. Santorum: 1.1%
12. Gilmore: 0.0%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.5%
Spread: Trump +20.0
Subtractions: Lindsey Graham (dropped out of race), George Pataki (dropped out of race)
RNC: Trump: 57%; Carson: 18%; Cruz: 13%; Rubio: 12%; Others: 0%
Front-runner: Trump
Challengers: Cruz, Rubio, Carson
Contenders: Bush, Christie, Paul
Long-shots: Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Santorum, Gilmore
Democratic Nomination
1. Clinton: 55.2%
2. Sanders: 31.9%
3. O'Malley: 3.6%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.3%
Spread: Clinton +23.3
DNC: Sanders: 56%; Clinton: 44%; Others: 0%
Front-runner: Clinton
Challenger: Sanders
Contender: O'Malley
Long-shots: none
General Election:
Using the RNC/DNC numbers:
Trump-Carson (R): 50.4% (271 electoral votes)
Sanders-Clinton (D): 49.6% (267 electoral votes)
President: Donald J. Trump, Sr. (R)
Vice-President: Benjamin "Ben" Carson, Sr. (R)
My Predictions:
Although Donald Trump is the current poll leader, his campaign lacks the organization, and turnout for Trump supporters may be low. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio seem like his biggest challengers. Ben Carson's campaign is falling and Jeb Bush is failing. All other candidates have very little chance of success. I predict a Cruz win in Iowa and South Carolina, and the establishment coalescing around Rubio for him to win New Hampshire. We would end up with a Rubio versus Cruz win where Rubio would ultimately prevail.
Here are some broader breakdowns for the Republicans:
Iowa:
Plausible winners: Cruz, Trump
Plausible runners-up: Rubio, Carson
No chance: Bush, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore
New Hampshire:
Plausible winners: Trump, Rubio
Plausible runners-up: Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Christie
No chance: Paul, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore
South Carolina:
Plausible winners: Trump, Cruz
Plausible runners-up: Rubio, Bush
No chance: Carson, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore
National:
Plausible winners: Trump, Cruz, Rubio
Plausible runners-up: Bush, Carson, Christie, Kasich
No chance: Paul, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore
Note that the margin of error may result in a jump of one level (eg. from no chance to runner-up or runner-up to winner, and all combinations of the such)
Breakdowns for the Democrats:
Iowa:
Winner: Clinton
Runner-up: Sanders
No chance: O'Malley
New Hampshire:
Winner: Sanders
Runner-up: Clinton
No chance: O'Malley
South Carolina:
Winner: Clinton
Runner-up: Sanders
No chance: O'Malley
National:
Winner: Clinton
Runner-up: Sanders
No chance: O'MalleyGeneral election:
I predict a general election Clinton vs Rubio showdown where Marco Rubio would win and become the 45th President of the United States of America.
Some final thoughts:
The 2016 U.S. presidential caucuses and election will be very close and very messy. Anything can still happen. The Republican nomination is wide open: with such a big crowd, several candidates have a shot at becoming the GOP nominee. While the Democratic race consists of only three individuals, it is no less interesting. Hillary Clinton may be leading now, but 2008 can always repeat itself and cause the "presumptive nominee" to lose to underdog Sanders. However, Clinton still maintains a comfortable edge over him. The general election will be a toss-up. The predictions of this blog and other websites and politicos are just as accurate as flipping a coin. So hold on tight, enjoy the ride, and vote!
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