Friday, March 25, 2016

State of the Race

Trump and Clinton on Track to be Nominated

Following Super Tuesdays 1, 2, and 3, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are well on their way to be nominated. Although there are still three Republicans left in the race, Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the race has essentially been a two-man race between Trump and Cruz. Marco Rubio only won three contests and Ben Carson failed to win any. They both dropped out. Out of 34 contests so far, Kasich has only won one: his home state of Ohio. This was no surprise. Kasich is a popular incumbent governor. Trump has 21 wins under his belt and Cruz has 9. The front-runner has already racked up 60% of delegates necessary to win the nomination. Cruz is at 37% and Kasich only as 13% of delegates making a majority mathematically impossible. Only a contested convention would save him, but the chances of that happening are slim as paper. If the Republicans want someone other than Trump as their nominee, then Kasich has to drop out and the anti-Trump voters will have to support Cruz. This may happen soon. Kasich has little reason to stay in the race. He has very little money at hand and even lost to Marco Rubio on Arizona even though the Florida senator had already dropped out. 
Sanders failed to defeat Clinton in Ohio and is trailing the front-runner with 12 wins compared to Clinton's 20. Although Sanders surprised pundits with wins in states like Michigan, Clinton maintains a much larger delegate count. Factoring in the super-delegates, Clinton has 71% of delegates need to win nomination versus 40% for Sanders. The Vermont senator would have to win big in the remaining contests (we're about halfway through already) and convince party leaders to support him. This is unlikely however. 

Now there is a hiatus in voting until April when Wisconsin votes. If Kasich drops out and Cruz pulls off a convincing win, there is hope that Trump can be stopped. However, Cruz will have to gather the support of moderates as several states like New York and northeastern states are less conservatives than the Texas senator's base. Sanders will hope for a miracle. At this point it seems as though only a legal litigation can prevent Clinton from clinching the Democratic Party nomination.

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