2015 UK Election Projection: Tight Race Expected Between Conservatives and Labour

Today (May 7) is the United Kingdom general election. Here is my projection:

Square Rule

Conservatives: 33.5%, 286 seats
Labour: 33.4%, 285 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party: 12.6%, 40 seats
Liberal-Democrats: 9.4%, 23 seats
Others: 6.4%, 10 seats
Green: 4.7%, 6 seats

Cube Rule

Conservatives: 33.5%, 313 seats
Labour: 33.4%, 310 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party: 12.6%, 17 seats
Liberal-Democrats: 9.4%, 7 seats
Others: 6.4%, 2 seats
Green: 4.7%, 1 seats
Square Rule (with bias adjustments)

Labour: 35.1%, 292 seats
Conservatives: 34.8%, 287 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party: 13.6%, 44 seats
Others: 7.4%, 13 seats
Green: 5.7%, 7 seatsLiberal-Democrats: 5.4%, 7 seats

Cube Rule (with bias adjustments)

Labour: 35.1%, 317 seats
Conservatives: 34.8%, 309 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party: 13.6%, 19 seats
Others: 7.4%, 3 seats
Green: 5.7%, 1 seatsLiberal-Democrats: 5.4%, 1 seats

All of these models show an extremely close race between the Conservatives and the Labour. A seat and vote range can be found by combining all of these models and adding standard deviation.

Conservatives: 31.8 - 36.5%, 258 - 405 seats
Labour: 32.2 - 36.3%, 265 - 351 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party: 10.7 - 15.5%, 10 - 57 seats
Liberal Democrats: 4.6 - 10.2%: 1 - 27 seats
Others: 5.5 - 8.3%, 1 - 16 seats
Green: 3.8 - 6.6%, 0 - 11 seats

Both the Conservatives and Labour have a shot at forming government (getting a majority) by winning at least 326 seats, but a hung parliament (minority or coalition government) is the more likely scenario. These two parties are extremely close. David Cameron may be re-elected or Ed Miliband will become the new British prime minister. UKIP will likely become the third party and the Liberal Democrats may be fourth. Other parties, including the Democratic Unionist Party, Scottish National Party, Sinn Féin, Plaid Cymru, Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, Social Democratic and Labour Party, Respect Party, independents, and others can receive up to 16 seats. The Green Party may receive maximum 11 seats, but possibly none at all.