Alberta Election 2015: NDP Majority Projected

The Alberta provincial election will take place on May 5. I have used this election to test my polling models. All models project an NDP majority.

Square rule

NDP: 42.7%, 53 seats
Wildrose: 25.1%, 18 seats
Progressive Conservatives: 22.3%, 15 seats
Liberals: 5.5%, 1 seat
Alberta Party: 3.3%, 0 seats
Others: 1.2%, 0 seats

Cube rule

NDP: 42.7%, 65 seats
Wildrose: 25.1%, 13 seats
Progressive Conservatives: 22.3%, 9 seats
Liberals: 5.5%, 0 seats
Alberta Party: 3.3%, 0 seats
Others: 1.2%, 0 seats

However, during the 2012 Alberta general election, most pollsters were forecasting a Wildrose majority. Instead, the PC's held on to a majority. The sample sizes were smaller then and methods have probably improved, so I expect pollsters to be more accurate now. However, in case they make a big mistake again, I have included models with bias adjustments. 

Square rule, with bias adjustments

NDP: 40.7%, 46 seats

PC: 32.6%, 30 seats

Wildrose: 19%, 10 seats

Liberals: 5%, 1 seat

Alberta Party: 1.6%, 0 seats

Others: 0.5%, 0 seats

Cube rule, with bias adjustments

NDP: 40.7%, 54 seats

PC: 32.6%, 28 seats

Wildrose: 19%, 5 seats

Liberals: 5%, 0 seat

Alberta Party: 1.6%, 0 seats

Others: 0.5%, 0 seats

In every model, the New Democrats get a majority. Either the PC's or the Wildrose Party will become the Official Opposition. 

If we look at the extreme ranges of all the models and include standard deviation and largest margin of error, we get the following result:

NDP: 33.7 - 49.7%, 32 - 87 seats

PC: 15.5 - 39.4%, 3 - 49 seats

Wildrose: 12.7 - 31.4%, 3 - 29 seats

Liberals: 0 - 11.8%, 0 - 4 seats

Alberta Party: 0.4 - 8.6%, 0 - 2 seats

Others: 0 - 6.2%, 0 - 1 seats

It is most likely that an NDP majority will occur. An NDP minority is also a possibility. The Progressive Conservatives may be able to sneak in a razor-thin majority or a bare plurality, but both they and the NDP would have to score at the extreme ends of the range. The Official Opposition will most likely be the PC's or the Wildrose Party, but if Jim Prentice is re-elected, the NDP would become the Official Opposition. The Liberals cannot hope for any more than 4 seats. The Alberta Party can win at most 2 seats. Other parties and independents are projected to receive maximum 1 seat, but most likely none.