The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month. The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken place.
1. Conservatives: 32.7% (+0.3 pp). The Conservatives have had a small increase in their polling average and have maintained their lead over the Liberals for the second month in a row. The latest poll by Abacus Data, pegging the party at 36%, is their highest since January 2013.
2. Liberals: 29.8% (-0.7 pp). The Liberals are polling their lowest since Trudeau was elected leader. They have lost the lead over the Conservatives and their support is slowly declining.
3. NDP: 22.7% (+1.1 pp). The NDP have made the biggest improvement this month and have gone up nearly 3 points since the beginning of the year. Much of the NDP's gains can be attributed to the Liberal's losses.
4. Green Party: 7.9% (-0.3 pp). The Greens have experienced a very slight drop this month, but are still ahead of the Bloc Quebecois. However, they are polling quite well now. The EKOS poll from April 28 gave them 9.9%. The question now is whether those who say that they intend to vote Green will actually do so.
5. Bloc Quebecois: 4.4% (-0.6 pp). The Bloc Quebecois have also experienced a dip this month. However, most polls consistently put the Bloc Quebecois at 4 or 5 percent.
6. Others: 2.5% (+0.2 pp). Other parties and independents are polling just about the same today as they were last month.
Regional Model
I am working on a regional model. It works just like the national model, but for each of Canada's main regions.
Atlantic
LPC: 45.1%, 26 seats
CPC: 23%, 3 seats
NDP: 21.5 %, 3 seats
GPC: 7.5%, 0 seats
Others: 2.8%, 0 seats
Quebec
NDP: 26.8%, 29 seats
LPC: 24.8%, 23 seats
CPC: 22.2%, 16 seats
BQ: 18.5%, 10 seats
GPC: 5.2%, 0 seats
Others: 2.4%, 0 seats
Ontario
CPC: 37%, 66 seats
LPC: 32.3%, 44 seats
NDP: 20.1%, 11 seats
GPC: 7.4%, 0 seats
Others: 3.2%, 0 seats
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
CPC: 40.5%, 18 seats
LPC: 29.6%, 7 seats
NDP: 21.2%, 3 seats
GPC: 6.6%, 0 seats
Others: 2.1%, 0 seats
Alberta
CPC: 42.9%, 26 seats
NDP: 24%, 5 seats
LPC: 21.5%, 3 seats
GPC: 6.8%, 0 seats
Others: 4.8%, 0 seats
British Columbia
CPC: 31.4%, 19 seats
LPC: 27.7%, 13 seats
NDP: 24.2%, 8 seats
GPC: 14.3%, 2 seats
Others: 2.4%, 0 seats
The Territories
CPC: 2 seats
LPC: 0 seats
NDP: 1 seats
GPC: 0 seats
Others: 0 seats
Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I cannot add any percentage figures either.
Canada
CPC: 150 seats
LPC: 116 seats
NDP: 60 seats
BQ: 10 seats
GPC: 2 seats
Others: 0 seats
This regional aggregate gives the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois more seats and the NDP and Green Party less seats. This is because of regional concentrations of voting habits. Also note that this model uses the cube rule instead of the square rule. During the 2011 Canadian federal election, the cube rule was more accurate on the regional level (the square rule was better on the national level).
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