Gatlin Wins in Lausanne and Monaco

Lausanne and Monaco IAAF Diamond League Meets

Two great athletic meets took place during the last two weeks. Justin Gatlin easily won both races. On July 9, Gatlin ran 9.75 beating Asafa Powell (9.92) and Tyson Gay (9.92). Powell was ahead of Gay by less than one one-hundredth of a second. On the 17th in Monaco, Gatlin ran 9.78s against a -0.3 m/s headwind beating Tyson Gay (9.97) and Jimmy Vicaut (10.03). Young sprinting sensation, Trayvon Bromell was disqualified after a false start. At the same meet, the American 4x100m relay team consisting of Gatlin, Bromell, Rodgers, and Gay ran a strong 37.87s.

My sprinting projection (see http://logbook2015.blogspot.ca/2015/07/the-2015-sprinting-season-is-going-to.html) did extremely well for the 100m race in Lausanne.

Here are the final results (in brackets actual minus projected times are stated):

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.75s (-0.07)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.92s (-0.01)
3. Gay (USA): 9.92s (-0.01)
4. Rodgers (USA): 10.03s (+0.10)
5. Bledman (TTO): 10.03s (+0.09)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.08s (+0.03)
7. Young (USA): 10.11s (+0.04)
DNS Batson (USA)

The ranking was 100% on the mark. The average error in times (absolute error) was 0.05s. Note that the projection could obviously not predict Batson not appearing on the start list for this race.

Here are the predicted results for the Monaco meet (in brackets time interval is stated):

1. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08)
2. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
3. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.44)
4. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
5. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
6. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
7. Ujah (GBR): 10.03s (9.79-10.27)
8. Biron (FRA): 10.18s (10.08-10.28)

Adjusting to account for Bromell's disqualification:

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.44)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Ujah (GBR): 10.03s (9.79-10.27)
7. Biron (FRA): 10.18s (10.08-10.28)

Actual results:

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.78s (-0.04)
2. Gay (USA): 9.97s (+0.06)
3. Vicaut (FRA): 10.03s (+0.12)
4. Ujah (GBR): 10.08s (+0.05)
5. Bledman (TTO): 10.10s (+0.16)
6. Ashmeade (JAM): 10.11s (+0.22)
7. Biron (FRA): 10.17s (-0.01)
DQ Bromell (USA)

Every time was off by average 0.09s. Each rank was off by average 1.

The models fared very well in both races.

Is Bolt Back?

The next Diamond League race will be in London from July 24 to 25. World record holder, world champion, and Olympic champion Usain Bolt has stated that he plans to race in this meet. This is the last major race before the World Championships in August, so it will be a good test to see if Bolt will be fit to compete. Bolt only really trains for major competitions, so despite running poor times this year, he may do well in London. However, he has to run at least in the 9.8's in order to have a shot at beating Justin Gatlin in the Worlds. Unfortunately, we will not see Bolt and Gatlin face off in London. Gatlin has not been invited due to previous drug bans. This seems somewhat hypocritical, since other former performance enhancing drug users, such as Michael Rodgers, will be competing. We will have to wait until the World Championships in Beijing to see who is the fastest man: Bolt or Gatlin?

The 2015 Sprinting Season is Going to Be Big

Season Kicks Off with a Bang

Asafa Powell ran the first sub-10 of 2015, running 9.84 seconds at the Jamaican Invitational Open. Then at the Doha Diamond League meet, Justin Gatlin ran the 100m in 9.74, making him the fifth fastest man on Earth. He then ran 9.75 at the Rome Diamond League meet. These times are incredible considering the fact that both Powell and Gatlin are over 30 years old and this is only the beginning of the season. As major competitions, including the IAAF World Championships and further Diamond League Championships take place, these athletes will be running even faster.

National Championships

The U.S.A. Outdoor Track and Field Championships as well as the Jamaica trials and Trinidad and Tobago trials took place in June. Powell ran another 9.84, winning the trials. Nickel Ashmeade and Kemar Bailey-Cole have also qualified as part of the Jamaican national team. Nesta Carter came fourth in the final, while Yohan Blake, who is recovering from several injuries, was eliminated in the semi-finals. Usain Bolt did not participate due to injuries (he already has a bye to the World Championships being the defending champion). Tyson Gay, on the comeback trail, won the U.S. Championships running 9.87s in the final. Nineteen year old Trayvon Bromell took second place. In a qualifying round, he ran 9.84. This is incredible since he is still a very young sprinter. Bromell has a bright future ahead of him and if these fast times continue, he will be a contender for future championships, Olympics, and even the world record. Mike Rodgers took the third American qualifying spot. Ryan Bailey false started in the first round, while Justin Gatlin who is already qualified after winning the 2014 Diamond League ran the 200m where he set a personal best and world leading time of 19.57 seconds. Keston Bledman won the Trinidad and Tobago trials with a winning time of 9.86s, tying Ato Boldon as the fastest man from these islands (Richard Thompson ran 9.82 last year). Richard Thompson did not participate due to an injury. 

Bolt Struggling

The fastest man in the world is doing badly this season. Very badly. His best time this year was 10.12 running against a headwind in Rio de Janeiro in a friendly race against some sprinters, including Ryan Bailey and Churandy Martina. His "basic", wind and altitude corrected time would be 10.04s, still not sub-10 (http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/wind/). Bolt struggled to win the 200m race at the New York Adidas Grand Prix (part of the IAAF Diamond League) with no real competitors. His time for this race was his slowest since 2006. Bolt has also pulled out of the Jamaican trials citing injuries, recovering, and the need for more training. He also dropped out of some other races, including the Diamond League meet in Paris. Bolt pulling out of the World Championships seems like a real possibility now. If he would enter the competition with insufficient training and recovering from injuries, he would face the same fate as Yohan Blake during this year's Jamaican trials: elimination. In my opinion, Usain Bolt would rather pull out of a race then run not 100% and probably lose. However, the fastest man in the world is a wild card. Bolt only really trains for major competitions. In 2012 he came second in the Jamaican Olympic trials to Yohan Blake in both the 100m and 200m events. He seemed very vulnerable, but ended up breaking the Olympic record and running to gold with a time of 9.63s in the final. Still, the Bolt from 2012 is better than 2015's Bolt. Usain Bolt not participating in the World Championships seems like a real possibility.

Diamond League Lausanne Meet

On Thursday July 9, a major Diamond League 100m race will take place. Several of the year's fastest runners, Justin Gatlin, Asafa Powell, Tyson Gay, Keston Bledman, Jimmy Vicaut, Kim Collins, and Isiah Young, are on the entry list. With so many top sprinters in the lineup, this race can be viewed as a dress rehearsal for the 2015 IAAF World Championships 100m final. Using my model, here are the predicted times for each runner (projected time and time interval are included).

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Rodgers (USA): 9.93s (9.80-10.06)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.05s (9.89-10.21)
7. Young (USA): 10.07s (9.89-10.25)

With this stacked lineup, I predict that Gatlin may run sub-9.7 this race, if the wind is favourable. This will be the first face-off of Gatlin, Powell, and Gay this season. This will not be a race to miss.

Presidential Primaries: June Polling Averages

Jeb Bush Now Clear Leader in GOP Field; Sanders Overtakes Biden

Ten polls by five different pollsters have been released this month for the Republicans, while six polls by five firms were conducted for the smaller Democratic field. Jeb Bush is ahead in most GOP polls, while Bernie Sanders has managed to pass Joe Biden and is in second place. Hillary Clinton still maintains an enormous lead above her competitors. Most candidates have already announced that they will run, but we still await the announcements of Scott Walker (R), John Kasich (R), and Joe Biden (D).

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Jeb Bush: 14.6% (+2, +3.7 pp)

2. Scott Walker: 10.2% (-2.2 pp)

3. Marco Rubio: 9.4% (-2, -3.1 pp)

4. Ben Carson: 9.4% (+1, -0.1 pp)

5. Rand Paul: 8.9% (+1, +0.3 pp)

6. Donald Trump: 8.6% (+3, +4.8 pp)

7. Mike Huckabee: 7% (-3, -2.7 pp)

8. Ted Cruz: 4.8% (-1, -2.2 pp)

9. Carly Fiorina: 3.5% (+4, +1.8 pp)

10. Rick Perry: 3.3% (+0.6 pp)

11. Chris Christie: 3.2% (-3, -1.6 pp)

12. Rich Santorum: 2.2% (+2, +0.6 pp)

13. John Kasich: 2.0% (-2, -0.1 pp)

14. Lindsey Graham: 1.5% (+2, +0.6 pp)

15. Bobby Jindal: 1.4% (+0.6 pp)

16. George Pataki: 0.2% (-4, -1.6 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.8% (+0.7 pp)

Spread: Bush +4.4

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on. 

 

1. Bush: Jeb Bush is back in the lead. He has already made his presidential announcement and his numbers have jumped by almost 4 points putting him in a clear lead. This is his best lead since the lead he had in February (spread: +4.8 pp) and he is now the sole front-runner.

2. Walker: The Wisconsin governor's numbers continue to drop, but has kept his second place status. 

3. Rubio: Rubio has fell from the lead and is in third place, tied with Carson (Rubio leads by less than one-tenth of a percentage point).

4. Carson: The only African American in the field has kept the supporters he received post-announcement and is virtually tied with Marco Rubio.

5. Paul: The Kentucky senator is polling the most consistently and is only half a point behind Rubio and Carson. However, he struck out at this year's Congressional Baseball Game.

6. Trump: Probably the most outspoken candidate (and the one with the most controversy and media backlash so far), Trump has jumped to sixth place and his numbers have increased by an incredible 5 percentage points.

7. Huckabee: The former governor of Arkansas is losing support and has dropped 3 places and 3 points from fourth to seventh place.

8. Cruz: Cruz is polling at an all-time low. The supporters he received after announcing that he will run for president have evaporated and only his hard-core supporters remain. 

9. Fiorina: The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard has made it into the top ten. She has been consistently increasing in polling numbers since the beginning of her run.

10. Perry: The former governor of Texas has finally made an increase from his previous stagnant state. His polling average is only a bit less than his February average.

11. Christie: Christie loses roughly 1 point every month and this month has been no exception. His support is now just above 3% and is out of the top ten.

12. Santorum: The former senator from Pennsylvania has increased slightly this month and his current polling figures equal his numbers from February.

13. Kasich: Ohio's governor is polling quite consistently, around 2%. He is a possibility for the vice-presidential ticket, since Ohio is a big swing state.

14. Graham: Graham's numbers remain consistently low.

15. Jindal: Jindal is above 1% now, but he is a long shot at winning the nomination.

16. Pataki: The former governor of New York received 0% in 8 of the 10 polls released this month. His polling average right now is at 0.2%. This is not surprising since he is the most moderate candidate, supporting same-sex marriage and being pro-choice.

The candidates have now separated into four general groups. Bush is the only front-runner, the challengers range from Walker to Trump, the contenders (Huckabee to Christie), and the long shots (Santorum to Pataki). The front-runners are the people (in this case the person) in the lead, the challengers are those who may eclipse the front-runner soon, the contenders still have a legitimate chance of winning the nomination, and the long shots barely have a chance.
 

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 57.9% (-3.4 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 14.3% (+1, +6.4 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 12.0% (-1, +0.4 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.9% (+0.4 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.6% (+0.2 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.4% (-0.2 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 11.9% (-3.8 pp)

Spread: Clinton +43.6

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Clinton: Still the hands-down front-runner, Clinton is well ahead of the pack. Her lead is now at 44 points down from nearly 50 last month, but considering the large margin of error in polls (often +/- 5 pp), this is insignificant.

2. Sanders: Sanders has overtaken the vice-president and has jumped by 6 points this month. Many of his new followers are likely former Elizabeth Warren supporters. 

3. Biden: Biden has fallen to third place, but is still only 2 points behind Sanders. However, with no announcement or exploratory committee, we cannot be sure if Biden will run. Some polling firms have not included him. Usually, the vice-president will be elected president if his predecessor (in this case Barack Obama) has high approval ratings. Obama is currently unpopular, not making Biden the first choice for many Democrats. 

4. O'Malley: The Maryland governor has gone up by almost half a point this month. The Baltimore riots do not appear to have hurt him significantly.

5. Webb: Webb's numbers have also gone up, but he is still trailing behind O'Malley for the fourth month in a row.

6. Chafee: A long shot, Chafee's polling average is less than half a percent. 

Canada Federal Election: June Polling Averages

NDP Set to Form the Next Government, Bloc Quebecois Rebounds

 June was a busy week for pollsters. Eleven polls were released by five different polling firms. Ten of those polls had the New Democrats in the lead (a Forum poll from June 5 had the Liberals at 32%, the Tories at 31%, and the NDP in third with 28%). With these updated polling figures, the NDP would form a minority government. Another story this month is the resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois after Gilles Duceppe announced that he would once again lead the party. The Bloquistes are now in front of the Green Party.

The polling averages up to June 29 can be seen below:

The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month. The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken place. 

  

 1. NDP: 32.8% (+4.3 pp). The New Democrats made another big leap this month and are now in the lead. Since, the NDP has increased by about ten points and they do not appear to be losing momentum. 

2. Conservatives: 28.4% (-1.9 pp). The Tories were the biggest losers this month, dropping by nearly two points. If an election were to be held today, the Conservatives would probably form the Official Opposition. However, as seen in several previous elections (United Kingdom 2015, Alberta 2015, Ontario 2014, Alberta 2011, Canada 2011), the incumbent was always polled far lower than the actual result. This is the only good news for the Conservatives this month. 

3. Liberals: 26.6% (-1.7 pp). The Liberals remain relegated to third party status and many of their losses can be attributed to the NDP's rise. Justin Trudeau will have to step up his game if he wants "Canada's natural governing party" to come up in the lead once again.

4. Bloc Quebecois: 5.7% (+1.5 pp). The only party other than the NDP to improve this month has been the Bloc Quebecois. With Gilles Duceppe returning as the party leader, the Bloquistes from 2011 are returning as well as some other Quebecois separatists and sovereignists. The Bloc is now ahead of the Green Party. 

5. Green Party: 5% (-1.6 pp). The Greens have been on the decline since their March high of 8.2%. It seems that many former Green Party supporters are flocking over to the NDP.

6. Others: 1.5% (-0.7 pp): Other parties and independents currently have about 1.5% of the vote. 

Regional Model

The regional model may actually be slightly more accurate than the national one. Some parties, such as the Bloc Quebecois, benefit greatly from regional variations, so there are some significant discrepancies between the national and regional seat counts. However, a drawback to the regional model is smaller sample sizes and older polls (Ipsos-Reid did not include any regional numbers and Environics did not include sample sizes in each province).

Atlantic

LPC: 32.8%, 13 seats (-12 pp, -5)
CPC: 30.8%, 11 seats (+2.1 pp, 2)
NDP: 28.6 %, 8 seats (+4 pp, 3)
GPC: 5.3%, 0 seats (-2.5 pp, 0)
Others: 2.6%, 0 seats (0 pp, 0)

Both the Conservatives and New Democrats have improved in the Atlantic provinces, while the Liberals continue to slide.

Quebec

NDP: 34.1%, 47 seats (+1.2 pp, 2)
LPC: 22%, 13 seats (-2.4 pp, -6)

BQ: 21.9%, 12 seats (+4.6 pp, 5)

CPC: 16.7%, 6 seats (-1.2 pp, -1)
GPC: 5.2%, 0 seats (-1.5 pp, 0)
Others: 2.4%, 0 seats (-0.8 pp, 0)

The Bloc Quebecois have been the biggest winners in Quebec this month. They have gained 5 more seats are now right behind the Liberals for third place in the province.

Ontario

NDP: 31.8%, 43 seats (+9.9  pp, 29)

CPC: 31.6%, 42 seats (-4.4 pp, -20)
LPC: 29.9%, 36 seats (-2.5 pp, -9)
GPC: 4.7%, 0 seats (-2.3 pp, 0)
Others: 2.1%, 0 seats (-0.6 pp, 0)

The New Democrats have netted nearly 29 seats in the seat-rich province of Ontario, putting them at a virtual tie with the Conservatives, who along with the Liberals, are rapidly losing seats in the province.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

CPC: 39.5%, 17 seats (-1.6 pp, -2)

NDP: 28.3%, 6 seats (+3.2 pp, 2)

LPC: 25.4%, 5 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)
GPC: 5.5%, 0 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (-0.2 pp, 0)

Things have been pretty static in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with the Conservatives holding a comfortable lead.

Note: Most pollsters combine Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but EKOS and the Angus Reid Forum poll them separately. If this is the case, the raw average of the Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers (including sample size) are calculated, since the two provinces have a similar population and the same amount of seats in the House of Commons. 

Alberta

CPC: 47.5%, 26 seats (+2 pp, 0)
NDP: 29%, 7 seats (+2.6 pp, +1)
LPC: 17.4%, 1 seats (-0.8 pp, -1)
GPC: 3.8%, 0 seats (-2.1 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (-2.2 pp, 0)

Even though the most recent Albertan general election may have been the catalyst that drove the rise of the NDP federally, on the provincial level, the Conservatives are doing very well in Alberta. The NDP have experienced a small uptick as well, while the Liberals, Greens, and other parties and independents are losing support.

British Columbia

NDP: 38.4%, 27 seats (+8.8 pp, 11)
CPC: 25.8%, 8 seats (-2.3 pp, -5)
LPC: 23.3%, 6 seats (-3.2 pp, -5)
GPC: 10.7%, 1 seats (-2.8 pp, -1)
Others: 1.8%, 0 seats (-0.5 pp, 0)

The NDP has jumped up to a very comfortable lead in BC. All other parties have dropped. The Green Party have lost their only other seat in British Columbia and are now down from 2 to 1 seat in the regional model.

The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
LPC:  0 seats
NDP:  1 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I cannot add any percentage figures either. Some models combine the North with Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but this can be inaccurate, since there are countless differences between the lifestyle in the Prairies and the way of life of the people of Canada's northern regions.

Canada

NDP:  138 seats (+48)

CPC:  113 seats (-26)

LPC:  74 seats (-26)
BQ: 12 seats (+5)
GPC:  1 seat (-1)
Others: 0 seats (0)

The New Democrats would form a minority government with the Conservatives as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Quebecois would regain their official party status meeting the requirement of having at least 10 seats in the House of Commons. 

The regional model is very consistent with the federal model for the NDP (138 regional vs 137 national).  Note that the regional model uses the cube rule, while the national model uses the square rule. Which one is superior? We'll find out on election day.

Toronto Gas Prices Continue to Rise

Gas prices hit the $1.20/L mark in mid-June and prices can be expected to continue going up this summer. The half-year of cheap gas is beginning to end in Toronto and prices will likely revert to the "normal" of 130 to 140 cent per litre during the summer. 

This graph displays the upwards trend of Toronto gas prices:

 

If you are interested in tracking gas prices I recommend that you visit these two websites:

http://tomorrowsgaspricetoday.com/gas-prices/?city=133 

http://www.torontogasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx 

The first site, Tomorrow's Gas Prices Today, accurately predicts the price of oil over a short period of time. Toronto Gas Buddy gives great graphs that show average gas prices in Toronto. There is even a graph that shows how the price of a litre of gasoline has changed since 2006.