June was a busy week for pollsters. Eleven polls were released by five different polling firms. Ten of those polls had the New Democrats in the lead (a Forum poll from June 5 had the Liberals at 32%, the Tories at 31%, and the NDP in third with 28%). With these updated polling figures, the NDP would form a minority government. Another story this month is the resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois after Gilles Duceppe announced that he would once again lead the party. The Bloquistes are now in front of the Green Party.
The polling averages up to June 29 can be seen below:
The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month.
The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank
and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red
means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken
place.
1. NDP: 32.8% (+4.3 pp). The New Democrats made another big leap this month and are now in the lead. Since, the NDP has increased by about ten points and they do not appear to be losing momentum.
2. Conservatives: 28.4% (-1.9 pp). The Tories were the biggest losers this month, dropping by nearly two points. If an election were to be held today, the Conservatives would probably form the Official Opposition. However, as seen in several previous elections (United Kingdom 2015, Alberta 2015, Ontario 2014, Alberta 2011, Canada 2011), the incumbent was always polled far lower than the actual result. This is the only good news for the Conservatives this month.
3. Liberals: 26.6% (-1.7 pp).
The Liberals remain relegated to third party status and many of their losses can be attributed to the NDP's rise. Justin Trudeau will have to step up his game if he wants "Canada's natural governing party" to come up in the lead once again.
4. Bloc Quebecois: 5.7% (+1.5 pp). The only party other than the NDP to improve this month has been the Bloc Quebecois. With Gilles Duceppe returning as the party leader, the Bloquistes from 2011 are returning as well as some other Quebecois separatists and sovereignists. The Bloc is now ahead of the Green Party.
5. Green Party: 5% (-1.6 pp). The Greens have been on the decline since their March high of 8.2%. It seems that many former Green Party supporters are flocking over to the NDP.
6. Others: 1.5% (-0.7 pp): Other parties and independents currently have about 1.5% of the vote.
Regional Model
The regional model may actually be slightly more accurate than the national one. Some parties, such as the Bloc Quebecois, benefit greatly from regional variations, so there are some significant discrepancies between the national and regional seat counts. However, a drawback to the regional model is smaller sample sizes and older polls (Ipsos-Reid did not include any regional numbers and Environics did not include sample sizes in each province).
LPC: 32.8%, 13 seats (-12 pp, -5)
CPC: 30.8%, 11 seats (+2.1 pp, 2)
NDP: 28.6 %, 8 seats (+4 pp, 3)
GPC: 5.3%, 0 seats (-2.5 pp, 0)
Others: 2.6%, 0 seats (0 pp, 0)
Both the Conservatives and New Democrats have improved in the Atlantic provinces, while the Liberals continue to slide.
Quebec
NDP: 34.1%, 47 seats (+1.2 pp, 2)
LPC: 22%, 13 seats (-2.4 pp, -6)
BQ: 21.9%, 12 seats (+4.6 pp, 5)
CPC: 16.7%, 6 seats (-1.2 pp, -1)GPC: 5.2%, 0 seats (-1.5 pp, 0)
Others: 2.4%, 0 seats (-0.8 pp, 0)
The Bloc Quebecois have been the biggest winners in Quebec this month. They have gained 5 more seats are now right behind the Liberals for third place in the province.
Ontario
NDP: 31.8%, 43 seats (+9.9 pp, 29)
CPC: 31.6%, 42 seats (-4.4 pp, -20)LPC: 29.9%, 36 seats (-2.5 pp, -9)
GPC: 4.7%, 0 seats (-2.3 pp, 0)
Others: 2.1%, 0 seats (-0.6 pp, 0)
The New Democrats have netted nearly 29 seats in the seat-rich province of Ontario, putting them at a virtual tie with the Conservatives, who along with the Liberals, are rapidly losing seats in the province.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
CPC: 39.5%, 17 seats (-1.6 pp, -2)
NDP: 28.3%, 6 seats (+3.2 pp, 2)
LPC: 25.4%, 5 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)GPC: 5.5%, 0 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (-0.2 pp, 0)
Things have been pretty static in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with the Conservatives holding a comfortable lead.
Note: Most pollsters combine Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but EKOS and the Angus Reid Forum poll them separately. If this is the case, the raw average of the Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers (including sample size) are calculated, since the two provinces have a similar population and the same amount of seats in the House of Commons.
CPC: 47.5%, 26 seats (+2 pp, 0)
NDP: 29%, 7 seats (+2.6 pp, +1)
LPC: 17.4%, 1 seats (-0.8 pp, -1)
GPC: 3.8%, 0 seats (-2.1 pp, 0)
Others: 2.3%, 0 seats (-2.2 pp, 0)
Even though the most recent Albertan general election may have been the catalyst that drove the rise of the NDP federally, on the provincial level, the Conservatives are doing very well in Alberta. The NDP have experienced a small uptick as well, while the Liberals, Greens, and other parties and independents are losing support.
British Columbia
NDP: 38.4%, 27 seats (+8.8 pp, 11)
CPC: 25.8%, 8 seats (-2.3 pp, -5)
LPC: 23.3%, 6 seats (-3.2 pp, -5)
GPC: 10.7%, 1 seats (-2.8 pp, -1)
Others: 1.8%, 0 seats (-0.5 pp, 0)
The NDP has jumped up to a very comfortable lead in BC. All other parties have dropped. The Green Party have lost their only other seat in British Columbia and are now down from 2 to 1 seat in the regional model.
The Territories
CPC: 2 seats
LPC: 0 seats
NDP: 1 seats
GPC: 0 seats
Others: 0 seats
Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make
the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I
cannot add any percentage figures either. Some models combine the North with Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but this can be inaccurate, since there are countless differences between the lifestyle in the Prairies and the way of life of the people of Canada's northern regions.
Canada
NDP: 138 seats (+48)
CPC: 113 seats (-26)
LPC: 74 seats (-26)BQ: 12 seats (+5)
GPC: 1 seat (-1)
Others: 0 seats (0)
The New Democrats would form a minority government with the Conservatives as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Quebecois would regain their official party status meeting the requirement of having at least 10 seats in the House of Commons.
The regional model is very consistent with the federal model for the NDP (138 regional vs 137 national). Note that the regional model uses the cube rule, while the national model uses the square rule. Which one is superior? We'll find out on election day.
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