Ten polls by five different pollsters have been released this month for the Republicans, while six polls by five firms were conducted for the smaller Democratic field. Jeb Bush is ahead in most GOP polls, while Bernie Sanders has managed to pass Joe Biden and is in second place. Hillary Clinton still maintains an enormous lead above her competitors. Most candidates have already announced that they will run, but we still await the announcements of Scott Walker (R), John Kasich (R), and Joe Biden (D).
Republican Nomination
Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red
for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains
unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.
1. Jeb Bush: 14.6% (+2, +3.7 pp)
2. Scott Walker: 10.2% (-2.2 pp)
3. Marco Rubio: 9.4% (-2, -3.1 pp)
4. Ben Carson: 9.4% (+1, -0.1 pp)
5. Rand Paul: 8.9% (+1, +0.3 pp)
6. Donald Trump: 8.6% (+3, +4.8 pp)
7. Mike Huckabee: 7% (-3, -2.7 pp)
8. Ted Cruz: 4.8% (-1, -2.2 pp)
9. Carly Fiorina: 3.5% (+4, +1.8 pp)
10. Rick Perry: 3.3% (+0.6 pp)
11. Chris Christie: 3.2% (-3, -1.6 pp)
12. Rich Santorum: 2.2% (+2, +0.6 pp)
13. John Kasich: 2.0% (-2, -0.1 pp)
14. Lindsey Graham: 1.5% (+2, +0.6 pp)
15. Bobby Jindal: 1.4% (+0.6 pp)
16. George Pataki: 0.2% (-4, -1.6 pp)
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.8% (+0.7 pp)
Spread: Bush +4.4
Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each
month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so
on.
1. Bush: Jeb Bush is back in the lead. He has already made his presidential announcement and his numbers have jumped by almost 4 points putting him in a clear lead. This is his best lead since the lead he had in February (spread: +4.8 pp) and he is now the sole front-runner.
2. Walker: The Wisconsin governor's numbers continue to drop, but has kept his second place status.
3. Rubio: Rubio has fell from the lead and is in third place, tied with Carson (Rubio leads by less than one-tenth of a percentage point).
4. Carson: The only African American in the field has kept the supporters he received post-announcement and is virtually tied with Marco Rubio.
5. Paul: The Kentucky senator is polling the most consistently and is only half a point behind Rubio and Carson. However, he struck out at this year's Congressional Baseball Game.
6. Trump: Probably the most outspoken candidate (and the one with the most controversy and media backlash so far), Trump has jumped to sixth place and his numbers have increased by an incredible 5 percentage points.
7. Huckabee: The former governor of Arkansas is losing support and has dropped 3 places and 3 points from fourth to seventh place.
8. Cruz: Cruz is polling at an all-time low. The supporters he received after announcing that he will run for president have evaporated and only his hard-core supporters remain.
9. Fiorina: The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard has made it into the top ten. She has been consistently increasing in polling numbers since the beginning of her run.
10. Perry: The former governor of Texas has finally made an increase from his previous stagnant state. His polling average is only a bit less than his February average.
11. Christie: Christie loses roughly 1 point every month and this month has been no exception. His support is now just above 3% and is out of the top ten.
12. Santorum: The former senator from Pennsylvania has increased slightly this month and his current polling figures equal his numbers from February.
13. Kasich: Ohio's governor is polling quite consistently, around 2%. He is a possibility for the vice-presidential ticket, since Ohio is a big swing state.
14. Graham: Graham's numbers remain consistently low.
15. Jindal: Jindal is above 1% now, but he is a long shot at winning the nomination.
16. Pataki: The former governor of New York received 0% in 8 of the 10 polls released this month. His polling average right now is at 0.2%. This is not surprising since he is the most moderate candidate, supporting same-sex marriage and being pro-choice.
The candidates have now separated into four general groups. Bush is the only front-runner, the challengers range from Walker to Trump, the contenders (Huckabee to Christie), and the long shots (Santorum to Pataki). The front-runners are the people (in this case the person) in the lead, the challengers are those who may eclipse the front-runner soon, the contenders still have a legitimate chance of winning the nomination, and the long shots barely have a chance.
Democratic Nomination
Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red
for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains
unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.
1. Hillary Clinton: 57.9% (-3.4 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 14.3% (+1, +6.4 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 12.0% (-1, +0.4 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.9% (+0.4 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.6% (+0.2 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.4% (-0.2 pp)
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 11.9% (-3.8 pp)
Spread: Clinton +43.6
Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.
1. Clinton: Still the hands-down front-runner, Clinton is well ahead of the pack. Her lead is now at 44 points down from nearly 50 last month, but considering the large margin of error in polls (often +/- 5 pp), this is insignificant.
2. Sanders: Sanders has overtaken the vice-president and has jumped by 6 points this month. Many of his new followers are likely former Elizabeth Warren supporters.
3. Biden: Biden has fallen to third place, but is still only 2 points behind Sanders. However, with no announcement or exploratory committee, we cannot be sure if Biden will run. Some polling firms have not included him. Usually, the vice-president will be elected president if his predecessor (in this case Barack Obama) has high approval ratings. Obama is currently unpopular, not making Biden the first choice for many Democrats.
4. O'Malley: The Maryland governor has gone up by almost half a point this month. The Baltimore riots do not appear to have hurt him significantly.
5. Webb: Webb's numbers have also gone up, but he is still trailing behind O'Malley for the fourth month in a row.
6. Chafee: A long shot, Chafee's polling average is less than half a percent.
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