Final U.S. Election 2016 Prediction: President Trump

I predict that Donald J. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election and will become the 45th President of the United States of America.

Trump, Clinton Close to Clinching Nomination

After several key victories, Donald Trump is well on track to becoming the GOP nominee. Indiana will the last stand of the anti-Trump forces. If the Cruz-Kasich alliance fails, Trump will get the victory.

Meanwhile Clinton maintains a strong lead over Sanders, and is set to grab the Democratic nomination.

State of the Race

Trump and Clinton on Track to be Nominated

Following Super Tuesdays 1, 2, and 3, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are well on their way to be nominated. Although there are still three Republicans left in the race, Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the race has essentially been a two-man race between Trump and Cruz. Marco Rubio only won three contests and Ben Carson failed to win any. They both dropped out. Out of 34 contests so far, Kasich has only won one: his home state of Ohio. This was no surprise. Kasich is a popular incumbent governor. Trump has 21 wins under his belt and Cruz has 9. The front-runner has already racked up 60% of delegates necessary to win the nomination. Cruz is at 37% and Kasich only as 13% of delegates making a majority mathematically impossible. Only a contested convention would save him, but the chances of that happening are slim as paper. If the Republicans want someone other than Trump as their nominee, then Kasich has to drop out and the anti-Trump voters will have to support Cruz. This may happen soon. Kasich has little reason to stay in the race. He has very little money at hand and even lost to Marco Rubio on Arizona even though the Florida senator had already dropped out. 

Sanders failed to defeat Clinton in Ohio and is trailing the front-runner with 12 wins compared to Clinton's 20. Although Sanders surprised pundits with wins in states like Michigan, Clinton maintains a much larger delegate count. Factoring in the super-delegates, Clinton has 71% of delegates need to win nomination versus 40% for Sanders. The Vermont senator would have to win big in the remaining contests (we're about halfway through already) and convince party leaders to support him. This is unlikely however. 

Now there is a hiatus in voting until April when Wisconsin votes. If Kasich drops out and Cruz pulls off a convincing win, there is hope that Trump can be stopped. However, Cruz will have to gather the support of moderates as several states like New York and northeastern states are less conservatives than the Texas senator's base. Sanders will hope for a miracle. At this point it seems as though only a legal litigation can prevent Clinton from clinching the Democratic Party nomination.

The Republican and Democratic Races Could End Tomorrow

Tuesday, March 1, 2016 is Super Tuesday. One fifth of the American states will vote and when finished, 25% of delegates will be allocated. 

Among Republicans, Donald Trump is in a strong position to win most, if not all of the states. Ted Cruz may win his home state of Texas and a few southern states, and Marco Rubio is in second or third place in several states, but leading in none. John Kasich and Ben Carson have no chance of winning any of the Super Tuesday states. 

Hillary Clinton will likely dominate the Democratic primaries and caucuses, while Bernie Sanders may pick up a couple of states and will easily dominate his home state, Vermont. But once Super Tuesday is over, the gap between Clinton and Sanders will be huge, making Clinton the presumptive nominee. Let's not mention the 10 to 1 difference in super-delegates between Clinton and Sanders. 

Unless Cruz does well in the South, he is a goner. And even if Rubio comes as the runner-up in several states, he will still not have carried a single state and will remain as a distant challenger to Trump. The Donald is polling between 35-45%, but once more candidates drop out, such as Ben Carson, and undecideds make up their mind, a large amount of Republicans will jump the bandwagon and support him giving him a support level of over 50%. Already some of the establishment are showing signs of supporting Trump. Chris Christie recently endorsed Trump and may be Trump's running mate. Others will do the same. 

So unless Cruz or Rubio pull some upset victories and surprise everyone, it's going to be Trump, Trump, Trump!

Presidential Primaries: December Polling Averages

Trump Continues to Increase Lead Among Republicans; Clinton Maintains Lead over Sanders

 Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 36.7%
 2. Cruz: 16.7%
3. Rubio: 11.2%
4. Carson: 9.6%
5. Bush: 5.3%
6. Christie: 3.6%
7. Paul: 3.2%
8. Huckabee: 2.1%
9. Fiorina: 2.1%
10. Kasich: 1.9%
11. Santorum: 1.1%
12. Gilmore: 0.0%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.5%
Spread: Trump +20.0

Subtractions: Lindsey Graham (dropped out of race), George Pataki (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump: 57%; Carson: 18%; Cruz: 13%; Rubio: 12%; Others: 0%

Front-runner: Trump

Challengers: Cruz, Rubio, Carson

Contenders: Bush, Christie, Paul

Long-shots: Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Santorum, Gilmore

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 55.2%
2. Sanders: 31.9%
3. O'Malley: 3.6%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.3%

Spread: Clinton +23.3

DNC: Sanders: 56%; Clinton: 44%; Others: 0%

Front-runner: Clinton

Challenger: Sanders

Contender: O'Malley

Long-shots: none

General Election:

Using the RNC/DNC numbers:

Trump-Carson (R): 50.4% (271 electoral votes)

Sanders-Clinton (D): 49.6% (267 electoral votes)

President: Donald J. Trump, Sr. (R)

Vice-President: Benjamin "Ben" Carson, Sr. (R)

My Predictions:

Although Donald Trump is the current poll leader, his campaign lacks the organization, and turnout for Trump supporters may be low. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio seem like his biggest challengers. Ben Carson's campaign is falling and Jeb Bush is failing. All other candidates have very little chance of success. I predict a Cruz win in Iowa and South Carolina, and the establishment coalescing around Rubio for him to win New Hampshire. We would end up with a Rubio versus Cruz win where Rubio would ultimately prevail.

Here are some broader breakdowns for the Republicans:

Iowa:

Plausible winners: Cruz, Trump

Plausible runners-up: Rubio, Carson

No chance: Bush, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

New Hampshire:

Plausible winners: Trump, Rubio

Plausible runners-up: Cruz, Bush, Kasich, Christie

No chance: Paul, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

South Carolina:

Plausible winners: Trump, Cruz

Plausible runners-up: Rubio, Bush 

No chance: Carson, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

National:

Plausible winners: Trump, Cruz, Rubio

Plausible runners-up: Bush, Carson, Christie, Kasich

No chance: Paul, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore

Note that the margin of error may result in a jump of one level (eg. from no chance to runner-up or runner-up to winner, and all combinations of the such)

Breakdowns for the Democrats:

Iowa:

Winner: Clinton

Runner-up: Sanders

No chance: O'Malley

New Hampshire:

Winner: Sanders

Runner-up: Clinton

No chance: O'Malley

South Carolina:

Winner: Clinton

Runner-up: Sanders

No chance: O'Malley

National:

Winner: Clinton

Runner-up: Sanders

No chance: O'Malley

General election:


I predict a general election Clinton vs Rubio showdown where Marco Rubio would win and become the 45th President of the United States of America.

 Some final thoughts:

The 2016 U.S. presidential caucuses and election will be very close and very messy. Anything can still happen. The Republican nomination is wide open: with such a big crowd, several candidates have a shot at becoming the GOP nominee. While the Democratic race consists of only three individuals, it is no less interesting. Hillary Clinton may be leading now, but 2008 can always repeat itself and cause the "presumptive nominee" to lose to underdog Sanders. However, Clinton still maintains a comfortable edge over him. The general election will be a toss-up. The predictions of this blog and other websites and politicos are just as accurate as flipping a coin. So hold on tight, enjoy the ride, and vote!