Presidential Primaries: November Polling Averages

Trump Keeps Rising as Carson Stumbles; Clinton Seemingly Unstoppable

 Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 32.5%
 2. Carson: 15.0%
3. Rubio: 13.2%
4. Cruz: 12.1%
5. Bush: 5.9%
6. Fiorina: 3.1%
7. Kasich: 2.9%
8. Christie: 2.8%
9. Paul: 2.8%
10. Huckabee: 2.4%
11. Gilmore: 1.0%
12. Graham: 0.6%
13. Pataki: 0.6%
14. Santorum: 0.4%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 4.7%
Spread: Trump +17.5

Subtractions: Bobby Jindal (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump: 58%; Carson: 21%; Rubio: 12%; Cruz: 9%; Others: 0%

 Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 57.3%
2. Sanders: 31.3%
3. O'Malley: 4.4%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 7.0%

Spread: Clinton +26.0

Subractions: Lawrence Lessig (dropped out of race)

DNC: Sanders: 57%; Clinton: 43%; Others: 0%

Presidential Primaries: October Polling Averages

Carson within Shooting Distance of Trump, Bush Falters while Cruz Rises; Clinton Increases Lead after Biden Declines to Run

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 27.4%
 2. Carson: 22.8%
3. Rubio: 9%
4. Cruz: 7.7%
5. Bush: 7.3%
6. Fiorina: 4%
7. Paul: 3.1%
8. Kasich: 2.9%
9. Huckabee: 2.7%
10. Christie: 2.3%
11. Graham: 0.7%
12. Jindal: 0.6%
13. Santorum: 0.5%
14. Pataki: 0.2%
15. Gilmore: 0%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 8.8%
Spread: Trump +4.6

RNC: Trump: 61%; Carson: 23%; Rubio: 10%; Cruz: 6%; Bush: 0%; Others: 0%

 Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 54.2%
2. Sanders: 27.8%
3. O'Malley: 2.2%
4. Lessig: 1%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 14.8%

Spread: Clinton +26.4

Subractions: Jim Webb (dropped out of race), Lincoln Chafee (dropped out of race), Joe Biden (declined to run) 

DNC: Sanders: 58%; Clinton: 42%; Others: 0%

Canada Federal Election 2015 Final Projection

Liberals Surge to the Lead

The Liberals are projected to win a strong minority, but the Conservatives still have a shot.

Note: 10 means election day.

1. LPC: 37.5%

2. CPC: 31.2%

3. NDP: 21.2%

4. BQ: 4.8%

5. GPC: 4.5%

6. Others: 0.8%

Regional Model

Atlantic: Clear Liberal Lead

1. LPC: 49.3%, 22-27 seats
2. NDP: 22.9%, 3-5 seats
3. CPC: 22.4%, 2-5 seats
4. GPC: 3.7%, 0 seats
5. Others:  1.6%, 0 seats

Quebec: Close Race between Liberals and New Democrats

1. LPC: 30.1%, 29-34 seats
2. NDP: 27%, 23-25 seats
3. BQ: 20%, 12 seats
4. CPC: 19.5%, 10-13 seats
5. GPC: 2.6%, 0-1 seats
6. Others:  0.8%, 0 seats

Ontario: Liberals Lead the Tories

1. LPC: 44.6%, 70-81 seats
2. CPC: 33.6%, 35-40 seats
3. NDP: 17.7%, 5-11 seats
4. GPC: 3.6%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.6%, 0 seats

Manitoba and Saskatchewan: Conservatives Maintain Lead over Liberals

1. CPC: 41.5%, 15-17 seats
2. LPC: 32.9%, 9 seats
3. NDP 20.9%, 2-4 seats
4. GPC: 4.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.6%, 0 seats
 
Alberta: Strong Conservative Lead

1. CPC: 51.9%, 25-29 seats
2. LPC: 26.5%, 4-6 seats
3. NDP: 16.6%, 1-3 seats
4. GPC: 4.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.9%, 0 seats

British Columbia: Liberal or Conservative Toss-up with NDP in Strong Third

1. LPC: 31.5%, 15-16 seats
2. CPC: 31.4%, 15-16 seats
3. NDP: 26.1%, 9-10 seats
4. GPC: 10.5%, 1-2 seats
5. Others:  0.4%, 0 seats
 
The Territories: Incumbents Keep Their Ridings

CPC:  2 seats
NDP:  1 seats
LPC:  0 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Canada: Strong Liberal Minority with the Possibility of a Slim Majority

1. LPC: 151-171 seats
2. CPC: 110-114 seats
3. NDP: 46-57 seats
4. BQ: 10-13 seats
5. GPC: 1-3 seats
6. Others: 0 seats

Extreme Ranges

LPC: 22%-43.1%; 38-292 seats

CPC: 26.3-38.8%; 66-213 seats

NDP: 14.9-35.2%; 0-159 seats

BQ: 0-9.6%; 0-12 seats

GPC: 0-10%; 0-12 seats

Others: 0-5.5%; 0-4 seats

Analysis

This election will be very close. Anything can happen. While the polls show the Liberals with a healthy lead, the question remains whether or not the Liberal supporters will actually show up to vote. Conservatives tend to have the most committed voters and are good at getting out the vote. Combining the fact that incumbents and right-leaning parties tend to get underrepresented by polls adds another factor this race that cannot be ignored. The Liberals may win a minority or majority, but a Conservative minority or even a second majority is not out of the equation yet. The New Democrats will likely become relegated to third place status, but still have a shot at forming a minority government. The Bloc Quebecois will rebound slightly. Both the Bloc and the Green Party have a shot at gaining official party status, but it is possible that the Bloquistes and Greens may disappear from the House of Commons altogether. Independents and other parties (including the Quebec-based Strength in Democracy) may gain as many as four seats this election. 

Presidential Primaries: September Polling Averages

Trump's Lead Shrinks As Carson, Fiorina, Rubio Rise; Gap Between Clinton and Sanders Narrows

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 26.7%
2. Carson: 15.9%
3. Rubio: 9.2%
4. Fiorina: 9.1%
5. Bush: 9%
6. Cruz: 6.1%
7. Christie: 3.7%
8. Paul: 3.5%
9. Kasich: 3.3%
10. Huckabee: 2.7%
11. Santorum: 1%
12. Jindal: 0.9%
13. Gilmore: 0.6%
14. Pataki: 0.2%
15. Graham: 0.2%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 7.9% 
Spread: Trump +10.8

Subtractions: Rick Perry (dropped out of race), Scott Walker (dropped out of race)

RNC: Trump 54%; Carson: 14%; Fiorina: 13%; Rubio: 11%; Cruz: 5%; Bush: 3%; Others: 0%

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 43.3%
2. Sanders: 26.3%
3. Biden: 19%
4. O'Malley: 0.9%
5. Webb: 0.6%
6. Chafee: 0.3%
7. Lessig: 0%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.6%

Spread: Clinton +17

Addition: Lawrence Lessig (Harvard law professor, MA)

DNC: Sanders: 49%; Clinton: 34%; Biden: 17%; Others: 0%

 

Canada Federal Election: September Polling Averages

NDP Campaign Collapsing, While Conservatives and Liberals Make Gains

1. CPC: 32.7%
2. LPC: 29.7%
3. NDP: 27%
4. GPC: 5%
5. BQ: 4.9%
6. Others: 0.7%

Regional Model

Atlantic

1. LPC: 42.8%, 22 seats
2. NDP: 27.2%, 6 seats
3. CPC: 23.7%, 4 seats
4. GPC: 5.6%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.7%, 0 seats

Quebec

1. NDP: 31.3%, 40 seats
2. LPC: 22.2%, 14 seats
3. BQ: 21.3%, 12 seats
4. CPC: 20.9%, 12 seats
5. GPC: 3.4%, 0 seats
6. Others:  0.9%, 0 seats

Ontario

1. CPC: 35.8%, 56 seats
2. LPC: 34%, 48 seats
3. NDP: 24.1%, 17 seats
4. GPC: 5.4%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.8%, 0 seats

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

1. CPC: 40.3%, 18 seats
2. LPC: 27.3%, 6 seats
3. NDP 25.4%, 4 seats
4. GPC: 6.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.8%, 0 seats
 
Alberta

1. CPC: 53.3%, 30 seats
2. LPC: 22.2%, 2 seats
3. NDP: 19.4%, 2 seats
4. GPC: 3.3%, 0 seats
5. Others:  1.8%, 0 seats

British Columbia

1. NDP: 32.6%, 17 seats
2. CPC: 31.4%, 16 seats
3. LPC: 25.6%, 8 seats
4. GPC: 10.1%, 1 seats
5. Others:  0.3%, 0 seats
 
The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
NDP:  1 seats
LPC:  0 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Canada

1. CPC: 138 seats
2. LPC: 100 seats
3. NDP: 87 seats
4. BQ: 12 seats
5. GPC: 1 seats
6. Others: 0 seats
 

Presidential Primaries: August Polling Averages

Trump Continues to Dominate GOP Field; Carson and Sanders Make Gains

Republican Nomination

1. Trump: 30.5%
2. Carson: 10.8%
3. Bush: 8.8%
4. Rubio: 6.1%
5. Huckabee: 5.7%
6. Cruz: 5.6%
7. Walker: 5.5%
8. Fiorina: 5%
9. Kasich: 3.5%
10. Christie: 2.7%
11. Paul: 2.4%
12. Perry: 2.4%
13. Santorum: 1.3%
14. Jindal: 0.7%
15. Gilmore: 0.6%
16. Graham: 0.3%
17. Pataki: 0.1%
Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 8%

Spread: Trump +19.7

Addition: Jim Gilmore (former governor, VA)

RNC:

Trump: 88%; Carson: 11%; Bush: 1%

Democratic Nomination

1. Clinton: 48.7%
2. Sanders: 23.2%
3. Biden: 14%
4. Webb: 1.3%
5. O'Malley: 1.3%
6. Chafee: 0.4%

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 11.1%

Spread: Clinton +25.5

DNC: 

Sanders: 51%; Clinton: 38%; Biden: 11%

Canada Federal Election: August Polling Averages

Conservatives Slip to Third Place in Close Three-Way Race

1. NDP: 34%
2. LPC: 28.7%
3. CPC: 27.8%
4. GPC: 4.8%
5. BQ: 3.7%
6. Others: 1.7%

Regional Model

Atlantic

1. LPC: 37.3%, 17 seats
2. NDP: 30.5%, 9 seats
3. CPC: 26.9%, 6 seats
4. GPC: 4.3%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.9%, 0 seats


Quebec

1. NDP: 43.7%, 65 seats
2. LPC: 20.8%, 7 seats
3. BQ: 16.2%, 3 seats
4. CPC: 15.1%, 3 seats
5. GPC: 3.1%, 0 seats
6. Others:  1%, 0 seats


Ontario

1. CPC: 32.2%, 44 seats
2. LPC: 32.1%, 33 seats
3. NDP: 29.4%, 33 seats
4. GPC: 5.2%, 0 seats
5. Others:  1.1%, 0 seats

 Manitoba and Saskatchewan

1. CPC: 42.2%, 19 seats
2. NDP: 27.2%, 5 seats
3. LPC: 24.7%, 4 seats
4. GPC: 4.1%, 0 seats
5. Others:  1.8%, 0 seats

 
Alberta

1. CPC: 49.3%, 29 seats
2. NDP: 26.1%, 4 seats
3. LPC: 17.6%, 1 seats
4. GPC: 4.7%, 0 seats
5. Others:  2.3%, 0 seats

 
British Columbia

1. NDP: 34.5%, 21 seats
2. CPC: 29.3%, 13 seats
3. LPC: 24.8%, 8 seats
4. GPC: 10.4%, 0 seats
5. Others:  0.9%, 0 seats

 
The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
LPC:  0 seats
NDP:  1 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Canada

1. NDP: 138 seats
2. CPC: 116 seats
3. LPC: 81 seats
4. BQ: 3 seats
5. GPC: 0 seats
6. Others: 0 seats

2015 IAAF World Championships Men's 100 Metres Sprint

Tomorrow, August 23, will be the date of the 100m semi-finals and finals of the 2015 IAAF World Championships. Most of this year's top sprinters qualified for the semis. Dasaolu and Bledman were eliminated in the heats. Others, such as Bailey-Cole, Richard Thompson, and Gemili missed out due to injuries. Some other sprinters including Ryan Bailey, Blake, and Carter were eliminated in their respective national championships. But despite some athletes missing, the start lists for the semi-finals and the finals will still be very good featuring stars like Gatlin, Bolt, Powell, Gay, Bromell, De Grasse, Vicaut, Rodgers, Ashmeade, Ogunode, Lemaitre, and Ujah, just to name a few. Bolt is facing his toughest competition yet and the 100m world record may be in jeopardy. It is even possible that for the first time in history, all eight sprinters will run sub-10 seconds (7 out of 8 sprinters were sub-10 in the finals of London 2012).

Here are the results that my model predicts:

Semi-Finals

Heat 1

1. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08) Q
2. De Grasse (CAN): 9.95s (9.85-10.05) Q
3. Bolt (JAM): 9.96s (9.81-10.11)
4. Bruintjies (RSA): 9.97s (9.87-10.07)   
5. Su (CHN): 9.99s (9.89-10.09)       
6. Harvey (TUR): 10.03s (9.93-10.13)   
7. Reus (GER): 10.07s (9.97-10.17)
8. Lemaitre (FRA): 10.13s (9.94-10.32)

Heat 2

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00) Q
2. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.17) Q   
3. Rodgers (USA): 9.92s (9.79-10.05) q
4. Ogunode (QAT): 9.92s (9.76-10.08)
5. Ujah (GBR): 9.94s (9.68-10.20)
6. Simbine (RSA): 9.97s (9.71-10.23)
7. Cadogan (BAR): 10.06s (9.96-10.16)       
8. Brown (CAN): 10.08s (9.98-10.18)

Heat 3

1. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02) Q   
2. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10) Q
3. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14) q
4. Gittens (BAR): 10.02s (9.92-10.12)
5. Meite (CIV): 10.05s (9.95-10.15)
6. Kilty (GBR): 10.05s (9.95-10.15)
7. Taftina (IRI): 10.10s (10.00-10.20)
8. Martina (NED): 10.18s (9.88-10.48)

Final

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08)
3. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.17)
4. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
5. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
6. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
7. Rodgers (USA): 9.92s (9.79-10.05
8. De Grasse (CAN): 9.95s (9.85-10.05)

Gold: Gatlin (USA)
Silver: Bromell (USA)
Bronze: Ashmeade (JAM)

World Champion: Justin Gatlin (USA)

This quadratic regression model shows that Gatlin would win it all. Here is what some other models say:

Moving average (2 period): 1) Gatlin, 2) Powell, 3) Gay

Linear: 1) Gay 2) Gatlin 3) Vicaut

Exponential: 1) Gay 2) Gatlin 3) Vicaut

However, despite these models, I still predict that Usain Bolt will win. Here's why.

 

Bolt 2008 pre-Olympics: 9.72s

Bolt 2008 Olympics: 9.69s

Difference: 0.03s

Bolt 2009 pre-World Championships: 9.79s

Bolt 2009 World Championships: 9.58s

Difference: 0.21s

Bolt 2012 pre-Olympics: 9.76s

Bolt 2012 Olympics: 9.63s

Difference: 0.13s

Bolt 2013 pre-World Championships: 9.85s

Bolt 2013 World Championships: 9.77s

Difference: 0.08s

Average Difference: 0.1125s

Now applying this difference,

Bolt 2015 pre-World Championships: 9.87s

Bolt 2015 World Championships: 9.76s (9.66-9.84)

Meanwhile for Gatlin,

Gatlin 2012 pre-Olympics: 9.80s

Gatlin 2012 Olympics: 9.79s

Difference: 0.01s

Gatlin 2013 pre-World Championships: 9.85s

Gatlin 2013 World Championships: 9.89s

Difference: 0.04s

Average Difference: 0.025s

Now applying this difference,

Gatlin 2015 pre-World Championships: 9.74

Gatlin 2015 World Championships: 9.72s (9.70-9.73)

Note that 2010 and 2014 were gap years (no major competitions other than Diamond League Meets) and Bolt false started and was disqualified in 2011, while Gatlin was still on the road to recovery following his drug bans. Hence, these years have been omitted. 

This shows that it will be very hard for Gatlin to run sub 9.7, but for Bolt it is possible. Gatlin has been very consistent, constantly running times in the 9.70's, but he has so far failed to run in the 9.6's. Meanwhile, for the defending champion, this is still possible. 

Another important factor to consider are basic times: times adjusted for wind speeds and elevation. Gatlin's best basic time of 2015 is 9.78s while for Bolt it is 9.80: a difference of only 0.02 seconds.

Other challengers include Bromell, the 20 year-old sprinting sensation. However, he is still inexperienced and young. Gay and Powell can clock speedy times, but often under perform in major competitions. If Bolt were still injured, I'd predict that Gatlin would win. But now I'm saying Bolt first, then Gatlin, and Powell with the bronze. But either way, this race will be a good one.

Presidential Primaries: July Polling Averages

Trump Steals GOP Field; Sanders Continues to Rise

19 polls were released this month for Republicans and Democrats were polled 16 times, making this a very busy month for pollsters. The biggest news this month is "The Donald". Taking advantage of the angry voters among the Republicans, he has captured media headlines and leads Jeb Bush by 12 points with almost 1 in 4 Republican voters supporting him. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders, another polarizing figure, is now polling at 20% and has reduced Hillary Clinton's lead to (a still impressive) 36 percentage points. The only candidate who has not yet announced his candidacy is Vice-President Joe Biden. Note that former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore has declared that he will run on July 30, but no poll this month has put him higher than 0%, so he has not been included for July's projection (but probably will be for August).

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Donald Trump: 24.4% (+5, +15.8 pp)

2. Jeb Bush: 12.8% (-1, -1.8 pp)

3. Scott Walker: 12.5% (-1, +2.3 pp)

4. Ben Carson: 6.5% (-2.9 pp)

5. Ted Cruz: 6.3% (+3, +1.5 pp)

6. Mike Huckabee: 5.9% (+1, -1.1 pp)

7. Marco Rubio: 5.1% (-4, -4.3 pp)

8. Rand Paul: 4.9% (-3, -4.0 pp)

9. John Kasich: 3.9% (+4, +1.9 pp)

10. Chris Christie: 3.1% (+1, -0.1 pp)

11. Rick Perry: 2.8% (-1, -0.5 pp)

12. Rich Santorum: 1.6% (-0.6 pp)

13. Carly Fiorina: 1.5% (-4, -2.0 pp)

14. Bobby Jindal: 1.2% (+1, -0.2 pp)

15. Lindsey Graham: 0.9% (-1, -0.6 pp)

16. George Pataki: 0.6% (+0.4 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 6.0% (-3.8 pp)

Spread: Trump +11.6

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Trump: The media mogul and businessman's jump has been phenomenal. Donald Trump is now the clear leader of the GOP field. However, considering all his controversies, we cannot be sure how long he can keep these numbers.

2. Bush: Jeb Bush has been trumped: literally. He is now in second place, more than ten percentage points behind the new frontrunner, Donald Trump.

3. Walker: Wisconsin's governor's polling average went up following his announcement this month, but this month hasn't been enough to exceed Bush.

4. Carson: Dr. Carson's support has gone down by 3 points, but he has managed to remain in fourth place.

5. Cruz: Cruz is one of the only candidates who has not publicly attacked or criticized Trump. Perhaps his rise upwards can be attributed to some of Trump's supporters.

6. Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor has gone down by 1 point, but has still risen one spot to sixth.

7. Rubio: The junior senator from Florida has experienced the biggest drop this month. He has fell by over 4 points and has only his core base left. He has fallen from third place to the seventh spot.

8. Paul: Paul has also experienced a large drop, losing 4 points. Until July, the Kentucky senator was very consistent polling at around 9%. Falling down to 5% may be attributed to some of his supporters flocking over to Trump's side.

9. Kasich: The governor of Ohio has jumped from 13th place to 9th after declaring candidacy.

10. Christie: After five consecutive months of decline, Christie's polling numbers are finally stagnating. His hard-core supporters make up 3% of Republican voters.

11. Perry: Rick Perry polled about the same as last month. Unlike Kasich, he has failed to move up significantly in ranking.

12. Santorum: Santorum's polling numbers this month are identical to his April and May numbers.

13. Fiorina: Fiorina shed 2 points during July and has fallen from 9th place to 13th, switching places with John Kasich.

14. Jindal: The Lousiana governor is no longer next-to-last, but he has failed to make any improvement this month.

15. Graham: The South Carolina senator, Strom Thurmond's successor, has dropped half a percentage point, back to his May polling average.

16. Pataki: Pataki is still polling under 1%.

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: After so many men and women have entered the race, it is not a surprise that the voters who would choose someone else or are still undecided has fallen by almost four percentage points.

The four tiers have shifted. The single front-runner is now Donald Trump. Trump has a 12 point lead over Bush. This is bigger than Romney's 10 point lead over Bush back in January when he was still considered to be a possible candidate (Romney: 20%, Bush: 10.5%). Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are currently Trump's only challengers. The contenders now range from Carson to Perry and the long-shots are Santorum and beyond.

Just for fun, I extrapolated Trump's, Bush's, and Walker's polling averages to July 2016, the month of the Republican National Convention (RNC) and adjusted to make up for the remainder. Here are the results:

1. Trump: 61%
2. Walker: 27%
3. Bush: 13%

Donald Trump would easily win the nomination and his runner-mate may be Walker or Bush. However, I hypothesize that a Trump-Cruz ticket would be the most likely considering the fact that Ted Cruz is the only one in the Republican race who does not dislike Donald Trump.

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 55.7% (-2.2 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 19.6% (+5.3 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.3 pp)

5. Jim Webb: 2.3% (+1, +0.7 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.4% (-1, -0.5 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.8% (+0.4 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.5% (-2.4 pp)

Spread: Clinton +36.1

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Clinton: The front-runner has lost two points this moth and five since May. Her lead has been reduced to 36 percentage points, but she still remains the undisputed front-runner.

Sanders: July was another incredible month of growth for Sanders who is now just below 20%.

Biden: Biden is the only candidate who has not announced that he will run yet. He has to make a decision soon, since his numbers are beginning to evaporate. 

Webb: Webb has finally broken the 2% ceiling and is ahead of O'Malley for the first time since they were tied in March (Webb lead in February).

O'Malley: Unlike Webb, O'Malley's numbers have failed to grow and he has dropped from fourth to fifth place.

Chafee: Chafee's polling average is currently just below 1%.

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: Just like among Republicans, the number of undecided Democratic voters has decreased.

The Democrats also have four main groups. Clinton is the front-runner and her sole challenger is Sanders. Biden remains a contender, while Webb, O'Malley, and Chafee are all long-shots.

I simulated the Democratic National Convention (DNC), just like I did for the RNC:

1. Clinton: 61%

2. Sanders: 39%

Clinton would win handily and we might end up with a Clinton-Sanders ticket.

To wrap up this piece, an interesting poll was conducted by Quinnipiac University for a possible presidential election between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, two candidates on the opposite ends of the political spectrum. The winner? Sanders 44% to 39% for Trump. 

Here is the link to the article: http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/politics/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-poll/

Canada Federal Election: July Polling Averages

Conservatives Make a Comeback

Thirteen polls were released in the month of July by eight polling firms. 7 of these 13 polls had the NDP in the lead, 2 had the Conservatives up front, and 4 polls showed the two parties head-to-head. The Tories now lead in the aggregate. A big reason for this polling jump can be attributed to the poll conducted by Mainstreet Research that put the Conservatives in majority territory with 38%, the Dippers at 27%, and the Liberals at 25%. An impressive 5147 Canadians were surveyed making this poll have one of the largest sample sizes since 2011. But is it an outlier? Possibly, but considering the fact that hundreds of polls have been released since the last federal election, it is on the high end of the spectrum.

The polling averages up to July 31 can be seen below:

The graph below illustrates each party's polling average for each month. The parties are listed by popular vote rank, and in brackets the rank and percentage point change is given. Green means an increase, while red means a decrease. If nothing is written, then no change has taken place. 

 1. Conservatives: 32.4% (+4.0 pp). The Conservatives made the biggest leap this month, rising by 4 percentage points. The size of this jump is nearly as big as the one made by the NDP last month.

2. NDP: 31.7% (-1.1 pp). The Dippers have lost some of their momentum, but still remain only 0.7 percentage points behind the Tories.

3. Liberals: 25.5% (-1.1 pp). The Liberals continued to drop in July. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals must come up with a new strategy to halt this decline and prevent the election from becoming a two-way race between the Conservatives and New Democrats.

4. Green Party: 5.3% (+0.3 pp). The Greens have managed to hold steady this month, but have overcome the Bloc Quebecois both in seats and popular vote. 

5. Bloc Quebecois: 4.4% (-1.3 pp). The post-leadership bump that took place after Gilles Duceppe became leader of the Bloc appears to have died off and the Bloquistes are back to their original level of 4%.

6. Others: 0.7% (-0.8 pp): Other parties (including Strength in Democracy) and independents currently have less than one percent of the vote. 

Regional Model

Atlantic

LPC: 37.3%, 17 seats (+4.5 pp, 4)

NDP: 30.5 %, 9 seats (+1.9 pp, 1)

CPC: 26.8%, 6 seats (-4.0 pp, -5)
GPC: 4.9%, 0 seats (-0.4 pp, 0)
Others: 0.5%, 0 seats (-2.1 pp pp, 0)

In June, the Atlantic provinces appeared like a three-way race, but now the Liberals are beginning to move further away from the pack, while the Conservatives are losing seats.

Quebec

NDP: 36.3%, 52 seats (+2.2 pp, 5)
LPC: 21.8%, 11 seats (-0.2 pp, -2)

CPC: 19.7%, 8 seats (+3.0 pp, 2)

BQ: 18.4%, 7 seats (-3.5 pp, -5)

GPC: 2.7%, 0 seats (-2.5 pp, 0)
Others: 1.2%, 0 seats (-1.2 pp, 0)

The NDP has led in every poll in Quebec this month. The Bloc has fallen back to fourth place, losing several seats. The Conservatives have managed to make some inroads in the province are now ahead of the Bloquistes.

Ontario

CPC: 37.3%, 65 seats (+5.7  pp, 23)

LPC: 28.9%, 30 seats (-1.0 pp, -6)

NDP: 27.7%, 26 seats (4.1 pp, -17)

GPC: 5.3%, 0 seats (+0.6  pp, 0)
Others: 0.7%, 0 seats (-1.4 pp, 0)

After losing 20 seats in Ontario last month, the Conservatives gained 23 this month, netting 3 seats since May. The Tories now have a clear lead in this key battleground province, while the New Democrats (especially) and the Liberals suffered heavy losses in July.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

CPC: 43.9%, 20 seats (+4.4 pp, 3)

NDP: 27.3%, 5 seats (-1.0 pp, -1)

LPC: 23.7%, 3 seats (-1.7 pp, -2)
GPC: 4.8%, 0 seats (-0.7 pp, 0)
Others: 0.3%, 0 seats (-2.0 pp, 0)

The Conservatives maintain a large lead in the Prairies.

Note: Most pollsters combine Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but EKOS and the Angus Reid Forum poll them separately. If this is the case, the raw average of the Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers (including sample size) are calculated, since the two provinces have a similar population and the same amount of seats in the House of Commons. 

Alberta

CPC: 49.8%, 29 seats (+2.3 pp, 3)
NDP: 25.9%, 4 seats (-3.1 pp, -3)
LPC: 17.6%, 1 seats (+0.2 pp, 0)
GPC: 5.4%, 0 seats (+1.6 pp, 0)
Others: 1.3%, 0 seats (-1.0 pp, 0)

Other than Conservative gains and New Democrat losses, not much has happened in Alberta.

British Columbia

NDP: 40.4%, 28 seats (+2.0 pp, 1)
CPC: 28.9%, 10 seats (+3.1 pp, 2)
LPC: 21.3%, 4 seats (-2.0 pp, -2)
GPC: 8.7%, 0 seats (-2.0 pp, -1)
Others: 0.7%, 0 seats (-1.1 pp, 0)

The Conservatives made the biggest gain in B.C. in July, but still remain over 10 points behind the NDP. The Green Party has lost their only seat.

The Territories

CPC:  2 seats
LPC:  0 seats
NDP:  1 seats
GPC:  0 seats
Others: 0 seats

Note: There is no polling data in the territories, so I have to make the assumption that the incumbent wins. Since there are no polls, I cannot add any percentage figures either. Some models combine the North with Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but this can be inaccurate, since there are countless differences between the lifestyle in the Prairies and the way of life of the people of Canada's northern regions.

Canada

 

CPC:  140 seats (+27)

NDP:  125 seats (-13)

LPC:  66 seats (-8)

BQ: 7 seats (-5)
GPC:  0 seats (-1)
Others: 0 seats (0)

The Tories have picked up nearly thirty seats while the New Democrats lost a baker's dozen. The Liberals continue to lose seats, while the Bloc has fallen back to May levels in seat count. The Greens would have no seat in the House of Commons if any election were held today. 

The regional model gives a stronger minority for the Conservatives than the national model. This is largely due to regional trends, especially prevalent in Quebec and British Columbia. The Bloc Quebecois managed to pick up several seats in Quebec since almost one in five Quebecers will vote for them, while they have no candidates in any other province or territory. Meanwhile the Greens capture around 5% of the vote in each province, but except in the case of B.C. (occasionally), their support does not exceed 10% putting them out of the range of getting any seats.

Gatlin Wins in Lausanne and Monaco

Lausanne and Monaco IAAF Diamond League Meets

Two great athletic meets took place during the last two weeks. Justin Gatlin easily won both races. On July 9, Gatlin ran 9.75 beating Asafa Powell (9.92) and Tyson Gay (9.92). Powell was ahead of Gay by less than one one-hundredth of a second. On the 17th in Monaco, Gatlin ran 9.78s against a -0.3 m/s headwind beating Tyson Gay (9.97) and Jimmy Vicaut (10.03). Young sprinting sensation, Trayvon Bromell was disqualified after a false start. At the same meet, the American 4x100m relay team consisting of Gatlin, Bromell, Rodgers, and Gay ran a strong 37.87s.

My sprinting projection (see http://logbook2015.blogspot.ca/2015/07/the-2015-sprinting-season-is-going-to.html) did extremely well for the 100m race in Lausanne.

Here are the final results (in brackets actual minus projected times are stated):

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.75s (-0.07)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.92s (-0.01)
3. Gay (USA): 9.92s (-0.01)
4. Rodgers (USA): 10.03s (+0.10)
5. Bledman (TTO): 10.03s (+0.09)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.08s (+0.03)
7. Young (USA): 10.11s (+0.04)
DNS Batson (USA)

The ranking was 100% on the mark. The average error in times (absolute error) was 0.05s. Note that the projection could obviously not predict Batson not appearing on the start list for this race.

Here are the predicted results for the Monaco meet (in brackets time interval is stated):

1. Bromell (USA): 9.82s (9.56-10.08)
2. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
3. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.44)
4. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
5. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
6. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
7. Ujah (GBR): 10.03s (9.79-10.27)
8. Biron (FRA): 10.18s (10.08-10.28)

Adjusting to account for Bromell's disqualification:

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Ashmeade (JAM): 9.90s (9.63-10.44)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Vicaut (FRA): 9.91s (9.68-10.14)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Ujah (GBR): 10.03s (9.79-10.27)
7. Biron (FRA): 10.18s (10.08-10.28)

Actual results:

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.78s (-0.04)
2. Gay (USA): 9.97s (+0.06)
3. Vicaut (FRA): 10.03s (+0.12)
4. Ujah (GBR): 10.08s (+0.05)
5. Bledman (TTO): 10.10s (+0.16)
6. Ashmeade (JAM): 10.11s (+0.22)
7. Biron (FRA): 10.17s (-0.01)
DQ Bromell (USA)

Every time was off by average 0.09s. Each rank was off by average 1.

The models fared very well in both races.

Is Bolt Back?

The next Diamond League race will be in London from July 24 to 25. World record holder, world champion, and Olympic champion Usain Bolt has stated that he plans to race in this meet. This is the last major race before the World Championships in August, so it will be a good test to see if Bolt will be fit to compete. Bolt only really trains for major competitions, so despite running poor times this year, he may do well in London. However, he has to run at least in the 9.8's in order to have a shot at beating Justin Gatlin in the Worlds. Unfortunately, we will not see Bolt and Gatlin face off in London. Gatlin has not been invited due to previous drug bans. This seems somewhat hypocritical, since other former performance enhancing drug users, such as Michael Rodgers, will be competing. We will have to wait until the World Championships in Beijing to see who is the fastest man: Bolt or Gatlin?

The 2015 Sprinting Season is Going to Be Big

Season Kicks Off with a Bang

Asafa Powell ran the first sub-10 of 2015, running 9.84 seconds at the Jamaican Invitational Open. Then at the Doha Diamond League meet, Justin Gatlin ran the 100m in 9.74, making him the fifth fastest man on Earth. He then ran 9.75 at the Rome Diamond League meet. These times are incredible considering the fact that both Powell and Gatlin are over 30 years old and this is only the beginning of the season. As major competitions, including the IAAF World Championships and further Diamond League Championships take place, these athletes will be running even faster.

National Championships

The U.S.A. Outdoor Track and Field Championships as well as the Jamaica trials and Trinidad and Tobago trials took place in June. Powell ran another 9.84, winning the trials. Nickel Ashmeade and Kemar Bailey-Cole have also qualified as part of the Jamaican national team. Nesta Carter came fourth in the final, while Yohan Blake, who is recovering from several injuries, was eliminated in the semi-finals. Usain Bolt did not participate due to injuries (he already has a bye to the World Championships being the defending champion). Tyson Gay, on the comeback trail, won the U.S. Championships running 9.87s in the final. Nineteen year old Trayvon Bromell took second place. In a qualifying round, he ran 9.84. This is incredible since he is still a very young sprinter. Bromell has a bright future ahead of him and if these fast times continue, he will be a contender for future championships, Olympics, and even the world record. Mike Rodgers took the third American qualifying spot. Ryan Bailey false started in the first round, while Justin Gatlin who is already qualified after winning the 2014 Diamond League ran the 200m where he set a personal best and world leading time of 19.57 seconds. Keston Bledman won the Trinidad and Tobago trials with a winning time of 9.86s, tying Ato Boldon as the fastest man from these islands (Richard Thompson ran 9.82 last year). Richard Thompson did not participate due to an injury. 

Bolt Struggling

The fastest man in the world is doing badly this season. Very badly. His best time this year was 10.12 running against a headwind in Rio de Janeiro in a friendly race against some sprinters, including Ryan Bailey and Churandy Martina. His "basic", wind and altitude corrected time would be 10.04s, still not sub-10 (http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/wind/). Bolt struggled to win the 200m race at the New York Adidas Grand Prix (part of the IAAF Diamond League) with no real competitors. His time for this race was his slowest since 2006. Bolt has also pulled out of the Jamaican trials citing injuries, recovering, and the need for more training. He also dropped out of some other races, including the Diamond League meet in Paris. Bolt pulling out of the World Championships seems like a real possibility now. If he would enter the competition with insufficient training and recovering from injuries, he would face the same fate as Yohan Blake during this year's Jamaican trials: elimination. In my opinion, Usain Bolt would rather pull out of a race then run not 100% and probably lose. However, the fastest man in the world is a wild card. Bolt only really trains for major competitions. In 2012 he came second in the Jamaican Olympic trials to Yohan Blake in both the 100m and 200m events. He seemed very vulnerable, but ended up breaking the Olympic record and running to gold with a time of 9.63s in the final. Still, the Bolt from 2012 is better than 2015's Bolt. Usain Bolt not participating in the World Championships seems like a real possibility.

Diamond League Lausanne Meet

On Thursday July 9, a major Diamond League 100m race will take place. Several of the year's fastest runners, Justin Gatlin, Asafa Powell, Tyson Gay, Keston Bledman, Jimmy Vicaut, Kim Collins, and Isiah Young, are on the entry list. With so many top sprinters in the lineup, this race can be viewed as a dress rehearsal for the 2015 IAAF World Championships 100m final. Using my model, here are the predicted times for each runner (projected time and time interval are included).

1. Gatlin (USA): 9.82s (9.64-10.00)
2. Powell (JAM): 9.91s (9.80-10.02)
3. Gay (USA): 9.91s (9.72-10.10)
4. Rodgers (USA): 9.93s (9.80-10.06)
5. Bledman (TTO): 9.94s (9.75-10.13)
6. Collins (SKN): 10.05s (9.89-10.21)
7. Young (USA): 10.07s (9.89-10.25)

With this stacked lineup, I predict that Gatlin may run sub-9.7 this race, if the wind is favourable. This will be the first face-off of Gatlin, Powell, and Gay this season. This will not be a race to miss.

Presidential Primaries: June Polling Averages

Jeb Bush Now Clear Leader in GOP Field; Sanders Overtakes Biden

Ten polls by five different pollsters have been released this month for the Republicans, while six polls by five firms were conducted for the smaller Democratic field. Jeb Bush is ahead in most GOP polls, while Bernie Sanders has managed to pass Joe Biden and is in second place. Hillary Clinton still maintains an enormous lead above her competitors. Most candidates have already announced that they will run, but we still await the announcements of Scott Walker (R), John Kasich (R), and Joe Biden (D).

Republican Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Jeb Bush: 14.6% (+2, +3.7 pp)

2. Scott Walker: 10.2% (-2.2 pp)

3. Marco Rubio: 9.4% (-2, -3.1 pp)

4. Ben Carson: 9.4% (+1, -0.1 pp)

5. Rand Paul: 8.9% (+1, +0.3 pp)

6. Donald Trump: 8.6% (+3, +4.8 pp)

7. Mike Huckabee: 7% (-3, -2.7 pp)

8. Ted Cruz: 4.8% (-1, -2.2 pp)

9. Carly Fiorina: 3.5% (+4, +1.8 pp)

10. Rick Perry: 3.3% (+0.6 pp)

11. Chris Christie: 3.2% (-3, -1.6 pp)

12. Rich Santorum: 2.2% (+2, +0.6 pp)

13. John Kasich: 2.0% (-2, -0.1 pp)

14. Lindsey Graham: 1.5% (+2, +0.6 pp)

15. Bobby Jindal: 1.4% (+0.6 pp)

16. George Pataki: 0.2% (-4, -1.6 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 9.8% (+0.7 pp)

Spread: Bush +4.4

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on. 

 

1. Bush: Jeb Bush is back in the lead. He has already made his presidential announcement and his numbers have jumped by almost 4 points putting him in a clear lead. This is his best lead since the lead he had in February (spread: +4.8 pp) and he is now the sole front-runner.

2. Walker: The Wisconsin governor's numbers continue to drop, but has kept his second place status. 

3. Rubio: Rubio has fell from the lead and is in third place, tied with Carson (Rubio leads by less than one-tenth of a percentage point).

4. Carson: The only African American in the field has kept the supporters he received post-announcement and is virtually tied with Marco Rubio.

5. Paul: The Kentucky senator is polling the most consistently and is only half a point behind Rubio and Carson. However, he struck out at this year's Congressional Baseball Game.

6. Trump: Probably the most outspoken candidate (and the one with the most controversy and media backlash so far), Trump has jumped to sixth place and his numbers have increased by an incredible 5 percentage points.

7. Huckabee: The former governor of Arkansas is losing support and has dropped 3 places and 3 points from fourth to seventh place.

8. Cruz: Cruz is polling at an all-time low. The supporters he received after announcing that he will run for president have evaporated and only his hard-core supporters remain. 

9. Fiorina: The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard has made it into the top ten. She has been consistently increasing in polling numbers since the beginning of her run.

10. Perry: The former governor of Texas has finally made an increase from his previous stagnant state. His polling average is only a bit less than his February average.

11. Christie: Christie loses roughly 1 point every month and this month has been no exception. His support is now just above 3% and is out of the top ten.

12. Santorum: The former senator from Pennsylvania has increased slightly this month and his current polling figures equal his numbers from February.

13. Kasich: Ohio's governor is polling quite consistently, around 2%. He is a possibility for the vice-presidential ticket, since Ohio is a big swing state.

14. Graham: Graham's numbers remain consistently low.

15. Jindal: Jindal is above 1% now, but he is a long shot at winning the nomination.

16. Pataki: The former governor of New York received 0% in 8 of the 10 polls released this month. His polling average right now is at 0.2%. This is not surprising since he is the most moderate candidate, supporting same-sex marriage and being pro-choice.

The candidates have now separated into four general groups. Bush is the only front-runner, the challengers range from Walker to Trump, the contenders (Huckabee to Christie), and the long shots (Santorum to Pataki). The front-runners are the people (in this case the person) in the lead, the challengers are those who may eclipse the front-runner soon, the contenders still have a legitimate chance of winning the nomination, and the long shots barely have a chance.
 

Democratic Nomination

Changes in position (rank) and percentage points are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged. Note that these are changes since the April update, not the most recent polling average.

1. Hillary Clinton: 57.9% (-3.4 pp)
2. Bernie Sanders: 14.3% (+1, +6.4 pp)
3. Joe Biden: 12.0% (-1, +0.4 pp)
4. Martin O'Malley: 1.9% (+0.4 pp)
5. Jim Webb: 1.6% (+0.2 pp)
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.4% (-0.2 pp)

Others/Undecided/None of the above/Wouldn't vote: 11.9% (-3.8 pp)

Spread: Clinton +43.6

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

1. Clinton: Still the hands-down front-runner, Clinton is well ahead of the pack. Her lead is now at 44 points down from nearly 50 last month, but considering the large margin of error in polls (often +/- 5 pp), this is insignificant.

2. Sanders: Sanders has overtaken the vice-president and has jumped by 6 points this month. Many of his new followers are likely former Elizabeth Warren supporters. 

3. Biden: Biden has fallen to third place, but is still only 2 points behind Sanders. However, with no announcement or exploratory committee, we cannot be sure if Biden will run. Some polling firms have not included him. Usually, the vice-president will be elected president if his predecessor (in this case Barack Obama) has high approval ratings. Obama is currently unpopular, not making Biden the first choice for many Democrats. 

4. O'Malley: The Maryland governor has gone up by almost half a point this month. The Baltimore riots do not appear to have hurt him significantly.

5. Webb: Webb's numbers have also gone up, but he is still trailing behind O'Malley for the fourth month in a row.

6. Chafee: A long shot, Chafee's polling average is less than half a percent.