EKOS Poll: Outlier or a New Trend?

A poll for the 2015 Canadian federal election published by EKOS a few days ago seems very out of place. According to the poll, the Conservatives are in the lead with only 31.8%. The Liberals are in second at 28.5% with the NDP in third place with 23.2%. The Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois trail at 8.7% and 4.7% respectively.

The poll shows low numbers for the Tories, but more so for the Liberals. Trudeau and his party have never polled lower than 30% since September 2013, one and a half years ago. While EKOS displays lower numbers than most polling firms do (the most recent Abacus poll shows the Liberals at 34% and the Conservatives at 33%), the question is if this poll is just an outlier and should be ignored.

While I think that this poll is very likely an outlier due to its low numbers and the Abacus poll showing a far different picture, it does show that the Liberals need to improve their numbers if they intend to replace Harper. Since the fall of 2014, the Liberals have been on a decline. Other than the polls by Forum, they have not managed to poll higher than 35%.

The Conservatives are first in this poll, but they should worry as well. In several recent polls, Conservatives seem to have lost some of their forward momentum and their polling numbers are declining (but less rapidly than for the Liberals). 

This EKOS poll is good news for Thomas Mulcair. This has been the NDP's best poll since late January 2015 and shows the NDP gaining ground. 

The Greens are also polling at high levels, but EKOS seems to be the only polling firm so far that is giving the Green Party over 7%, possibly due the house effect and how EKOS' polls are conducted.

The Bloc Quebecois are in fifth with 4.7% and have remained mostly stable so far.

4311 Canadians were polled using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) with a margin of error of ±1.5 pp.

The question of whether or not this poll is an outlier will hopefully be answered when the next EKOS poll comes out this Friday.