More Announcements

On Sunday Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio announced that they will be running for president. Just like in a previous post on Rand Paul's announcement (http://logbook2015.blogspot.ca/2015/04/declaring-candidacy-and-polls.html), I will attempt to predict what their polling numbers will be after announcing a White House run. The assumption being made is that there is a linear, constant bump in polling numbers occurs after declaring candidacy.

In the previous post, "Declaring Candidacy and Polls", we saw an increase of +7 pp for Ted Cruz in the newest polls, and an increase in his polling average of 3.3 pp to 4.3 pp. Hillary Clinton is currently polling at 59.3%, so applying this boost, her polling average would become 62.6% to 63.6%. Her huge lead would become even bigger.

Here are Clinton's most recent polls:

ABC/Washington Post (3/26-3/29): 66%
Public Policy Polling (3/26-3/31): 54%
Fox News (3/29-3/31): 61%

Using the methodology above, Clinton would receive between 61% to 73% in a future poll.

Now let's go to Marco Rubio. 

Rubio experienced an increase of about +1.5 pp in March and his most recent polling average is 6.2%. Applying the post-announcement boost, his polling average would be 9.5% to 10.5%. This would place him above Huckabee, Carson, and Cruz, and close behind Rand Paul (who also got a boost).

Rubio's most recent polls are found below:

ABC/Washington Post (3/26-3/29): 8%
Public Policy Polling (3/26-3/31): 6%
Fox News (3/29-3/31): 8%

Hence, in a future poll, Rubio may receive between 13% to 15%, making him a front-runner or almost one. 

However, several assumptions are being made in these predictions, and we can only know for sure once the next couple of polls are released.