U.S. Presidential Primaries 2016 March Polling Averages

Republican Nomination

Three polls have recently been released for the 2016 U.S. Presidential primaries.  According to the poll by ABC/Washington Post, Jeb Bush is leading the Republicans with 21%. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll shows Wisconsin governor Scott Walker in first with 20%. The third poll, this one by Fox News, pegs Walker in first with 15%. All three polls show Ted Cruz, who has recently announced his presidential bid, at higher numbers than he has previously had. The ABC/Washington Post Poll has him in third with 12% and the PPP poll puts him in third place as well with 16%. The Fox News poll has him in tied in fourth place with 10%.

I aggregated the ten most recent polls by weighing newer polls more than older polls and then finding the weighted average for each candidate. Here are the current results:

1. Jeb Bush: 16.2%

2. Scott Walker: 15.8%

3. Ben Carson: 9.3%

4. Mike Huckabee: 9%

5. Rand Paul: 8.8%

6. Ted Cruz: 8.6%
7. Marco Rubio: 6.3%

8. Chris Christie: 6%

9. Rick Perry: 2.6%

10. Rick Santorum: 1.8%

11. Bobby Jindal: 1.7%

12. John Kasich: 1.4%

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015. Note that month 1 means January, 2 means February, and so on.

Bush: Bush had a slight decrease in February, but his polling numbers increased in March, but are not as high as they were in January.

Walker: Walker has experienced the biggest increase this year. He was in 7th place in January with 6%, but now he is in a very close second place, chasing after Bush.

Carson: Carson has decreased since February, but since his decline was less than that of Huckabee, so he snatched third place.

Huckabee: Huckabee reached his peak in February when a CNN poll gave him 17%, but since then his numbers have gone down and he has now fallen to fourth place.

Paul: Rand Paul has been quite consistent so far and he maintains his fifth place standing.

Cruz: After formally declaring that he is running for president, Cruz's polling numbers skyrocketed and he is now in sixth place close behind Paul, Huckabee, and Carson. 

Rubio: The Florida senator has gone up over by almost two percentage points since February and he has overtaken Christie.

Christie: The New Jersey governor has had the biggest fall so far. He was tied in third place in January with 9%, but has since been losing a percent or two every month and has fallen into eighth.

Perry: Rick Perry's numbers are not looking good. Like Christie, his numbers are also going down. In the ABC/Washington Post poll he polled at only 1%.

Santorum: The 2012 GOP nomination race runner-up is in tenth place edging out Jindal and Kasich.

Jindal: Jindal is polling low numbers and during March he was overtaken by Santorum by 0.1%.

Kasich: The Ohio governor rounds up the candidates and is currently at 1.4%.

All twelve of these candidates have a shot at the nomination this early on in the campaign. As declarations of candidacy are announced, straw polls take place, and the year 2016 approaches, anything can still happen in this dynamic political landscape.

Democratic Nomination

The Democratic field is smaller and less changes have taken place so far. Hillary Clinton is way ahead of the back and no one has come close to her in any poll so far.

Here are the current polling averages for the Democrats:

1. Hillary Clinton: 60.2%
2. Joe Biden: 13.2%
3. Elizabeth Warren: 11.7%
4. Bernie Sanders: 3.9%
5. Jim Webb: 1.2%
6. Martin O'Malley: 1%

Below is a graph showing the candidates' polling averages after each month in 2015.

 Clinton: Hillary Clinton is well in the lead and is uncontested in first place.

Biden: The vice president's numbers have slightly decreased  since February and he maintains a small lead over Elizabeth Warren.

Warren: Warren has been slowly moving up and may soon threaten Biden in second place.

Sanders: The independent Vermont senator is in a distant fourth place and he has also made small increases.

Webb: Webb's number's haven't gotten over 2% yet and he will need better results if he wants to win the nomination.

O'Malley: The governor of Maryland's polling averages are slowly decreasing since January and he is in last place.

Note that Andrew Cuomo, New York's governor, is not on the list. Several recent polls have not included him and he has stated that he won't run if Clinton runs.

So for the Democrats, the landscape is more static and we'll probably have to wait for a couple of months until we see some movement.