Paul and Rubio Jump Forward In New Poll

A CNN/ORC poll has been released today, surveying Republicans and Democrats from April 16 to April 19. Jeb Bush is still in the lead in the GOP field with 17%, Scott Walker is at 12%, and Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are tied for third, each with 11%.

The polling averages have been updated. Changes in position (rank) are indicated by green for an increase, red for a decrease, and nothing if the candidate's position remains unchanged.

GOP

1. Jeb Bush: 15.9%

2. Scott Walker: 14.4%

3. Ted Cruz: 9.2%

4. Rand Paul: 8.8% (+2)

5. Mike Huckabee: 8.7%

6. Ben Carson: 7.9% (-2)

7. Marco Rubio: 7.1%

8. Chris Christie: 5.3%

9. Rick Perry: 3.1%

10. Rick Santorum: 1.9%

11. Bobby Jindal: 1.6%

12. John Kasich: 1.4%

Bush has increased his lead over Walker by a bit, but both of them have dropped slightly since the last polling average. Rand Paul has jumped up to fourth place, while Ben Carson fell to sixth after the CNN/ORC poll gave him only 4%. Marco Rubio is now polling over 7%, while Christie continues to perform poorly.

Democratic Party (updated and edited polling average as of March 31, 2015)

1. Hillary Clinton: 59.3%

2. Elizabeth Warren: 12.1% (+1)

3. Joe Biden: 12.1% (-1)

4. Bernie Sanders: 4.2%

5. Martin O'Malley: 1.3% 

6. Jim Webb: 1.3%

Warren is tied with Biden, but leads if a second decimal place is taken into account.  Martin O'Malley is in a virtual tie with Jim Webb (though the Maryland governor leads by less than one tenth of a percentage point).

For the Republican candidates, the post-announcement bump has been smaller than predicted in my previous posts (http://logbook2015.blogspot.ca/2015/04/declaring-candidacy-and-polls.html, http://logbook2015.blogspot.ca/2015/04/more-announcements.html). I predicted that Paul would score between 15% to 17% with a polling average from 11.6% to 12.6%, but in reality, Paul's numbers fell short of this range. The CNN/ORC poll put him at 11% and his current average is 8.8%. However, he has overtaken Carson and Huckabee as predicted. The same poll gave Rubio 11% as well and his average is 7.1%. The prediction also fell short for him as result of 13% to 15% and a polling average of 9.5% to 10.5% was predicted. A likely explanation for these shortcomings may have been that the bump after declaration of candidacy is not a constant value and varies for different candidates. Also, the only known data point was Ted Cruz, so all predictions were made for his result. Furthermore, CNN/ORC was not a polling firm in the prediction and since methodology varies between pollsters, these predictions may work best for the same polling firm. With my model, a new poll does not drastically effect the current standings, so big changes do not occur suddenly. We will see more trends emerging after new polls are released and the model is updated.

Now with this new poll and many more to come, I will be able to make more accurate predictions for upcoming presidential announcements. Ben Carson has stated that he will make his declaration on May 4 and Mike Huckabee has hinted at a May 5 campaign launch, so stay tuned for more!