Monday, April 20, 2015

Canada Election 2015 Projection

The projection for the 2015 Canadian federal election has been updated. 


A change has been applied to the model. Instead of determining the percentage for independents and other parties after weighting, the percentages for these parties are calculated beforehand and are weighted just the same as for the rest of the parties.

I am also currently working on a model were regional polls are considered. However, I have tested it using results from the 2011 Canadian federal election and I am not very satisfied with it: the national popular vote square rule model that is used now works much better.


No comments:

Post a Comment